The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: We have a big event on the slate for this week as the top 44 of the world’s top-ranked 50 players are in action this week, and another huge purse is up for grabs – the third in the last four weeks. This tournament first debuted in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open Invitational, but it has been known as the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1996. The record at this event and on this particular course is held by Payne Stewart who shot a -20 in 1987 to win by three strokes. Winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational over the past five years include Scottie Scheffler in 2022, Bryson DeChambeau in 2021, Tyrrell Hatton in 2020, Francesco Molinari in 2019, and Rory McIlroy in 2018.
Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is a huge $20M, the winner collects a massive $3.6M and also earns himself 550 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Bay Hill Club and Lodge is 7,466 yards in length, is a par 72, and the large greens consist of Bermudagrass. The winning score here over the past decade ranges from -4 to -19, so weather and course setup can fluctuate in a big way from year to year. Some core key stats to hone in on this week, in order, include strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: off the tee, driving distance, strokes gained: tee to green, and strokes gained: putting.
The field: We have 120 players in the field this week, and the top 65 golfers plus ties after round 2 will move on to play round 3 on Saturday and round 4 on Sunday. We will have the pleasure of seeing defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and numerous other superstars and stars. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A.
DFS PGA Tour Golf Picks
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. And check out our PGA Projections and Optimizer tools to make more informed player selections for your DFS DraftKings lineups. Best of luck this week!
Three questions that are relevant to the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week:
- Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total over their last 24 rounds? Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Jason Day, Max Homa, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, and Patrick Cantlay.
- Which 10 players does my custom model like the most? Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day, Tony Finau, and Collin Morikawa.
- Which 10 players gained the most strokes total (minimum 8 rounds) at this event since 2018? Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Chris Kirk, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Tyrrell Hatton, Max Homa, Charley Hoffman, and Emiliano Grillo.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are (in no particular order) 15 DFS golf picks on DraftKings (DK), plus I also include player salaries for DK. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last five years, and add in some tasty data.
15 Players Who Are Either High-Potential or Solid-Value Plays This Week – Get Them Into Your DFS Lineups
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.5K) – He’s the best player in the world for numerous reasons – has won three times on the PGA Tour over his last five starts and has finished no lower than T8 over his last seven tournaments played. He’s coming off the win two weeks ago at The Genesis Invitational where he gained an incredible 12.53 strokes ball striking and 4.52 putting. He has only played this tournament once in his career, that was last year and finished T17 but he gained 11.52 strokes ball striking and lost 5.24 with his short game – if he corrects that this week and his strong ball striking continues, then he likely wins. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T17.
Rory McIlroy (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K) – Rory has been dominant at this event – the best in the field by a decent margin and is the 2018 winner. Speaking of wins, he has won twice in his last four starts and all he needs to fix is his putting to put another W on the board. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T13, 2021 – T10, 2020 – T5, 2019 – T6, 2018 – Won.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) – He won two starts ago in Phoenix and his lowest finish over his last seven starts is a T12. He’s also the defending champ here and we all know what happened when he defended his title in Arizona just three weeks ago – don’t be surprised if he echos that this week at Bay Hill. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – Won and 2020 – T15.
Jason Day (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – Day has really turned back the clock since early October of last year with eight top 21’s in his last nine starts and he has three straight top 9’s including a 5th at the Phoenix Open and a 9th at The Genesis Invitational – both were stacked fields just like this week. He’s playing a complete game right now and has gained an amazing 23+ strokes with his short game over his last four appearances. He won here in 2016 and has six top 31’s since 2010. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T31, 2020 – Withdraw, 2019 – Withdraw, and 2018 – T22.
Chris Kirk (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – It took a bunch of years for Kirk to win again on the PGA Tour but he broke through for his fifth career win last week at a tough venue. He also had two top 3’s in the two starts prior to missing the cut at the Phoenix Open with impressive stats to admire. He has been so solid at this venue and it seems to make perfect sense to roll him out again this week, especially considering his price point is in the $7K range. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T5, 2021 – T8, 2019 – T15, and 2018 – T13.
Cameron Young (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K) – He can blast a long ball and is a strong ball striker, he just needs to flip his short game upside down to be a consistent contender on the world’s biggest stage. He routinely finishes well and when his putting and chipping are in sync, he’s in the mix to win. He almost gained strokes across the board here last year, he just had a small 0.19 loss on approach, if he fixes that then he can play his way into the top 10. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T13.
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – Hatton seems to play to his full potential in Florida and has been rock-solid at this event winning just three years ago, finishing co-runner-up last year, and he also had a T4 in 2017. He had a T6 two starts ago in Phoenix and should be a good value for your balanced and hybrid lineups this week. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T2, 2021 – T21, 2020 – Won, 2019 – T29, and 2018 – T69.
Keith Mitchell (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – I’ve been impressed with Mitchell’s play recently since he has two top 5’s over his last three starts, and he has three top 25’s over his last four starts. He had a T6 here in 2019 and a T5 in 2020, so he can navigate this track just fine and seems like a decent bet to finish inside the top 30 this week. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T61, 2021 – T43, 2020 – T5, and 2019 – T6.
Max Homa (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – He has been flashing brilliance lately with three top 3’s in his last four starts including winning the Farmers Insurance Open in late January. His results at this tournament have been nothing to sneeze at either as he has gone T24-T10-T17 since 2020 and gained more than 15 strokes ball striking across those three starts. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T17, 2021 – T10, and 2020 – T24.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – 9.5K) – He was smoking the ball here a year ago gaining 14.55 strokes ball striking but too bad his short game lost almost 6 strokes, otherwise he could have won as he still finished inside the top 10. He’s due to win again and has been knocking on the door recently with four top 6’s in his last five starts including a runner-up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and a 3rd at the Farmers Insurance Open. Everything is in place for him to hoist a trophy again, and it could come this week if he can put his complete game together. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T9 and 2018 – T64.
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K) – Power seems to play well earlier in PGA Tour seasons and this season is no different as he won seven starts ago at the Bermuda Championship, has three top 5’s in his last seven starts and has finished no lower than T25 during that stretch thanks to a blazing short game. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – Cut.
Robby Shelton (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – Shelton has been holding his own over his last six starts with four top 21’s and two of those were top 10’s including his T6 at The American Express late last month. Don’t worry about his top finish being a T56 here as he’s a much-improved golfer than he was when he last saw this place two years ago. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut and 2020 – T56.
Justin Suh (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – We saw him a bunch late Sunday afternoon last week as he trotted to a T5 thanks to gaining 10.45 strokes ball striking. If he finishes inside the top 40 this week consider it a win for your lineups considering he’s a scrub in a very elite field. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut.
Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – He has been a bit shaky over his last four starts with two missed cuts, but he had a T7 at the Tournament of Champions during that stretch and a top-30 result in Phoenix. He’s mostly here though on my list because of his stellar play on this course with four straight top 10’s including a solo 2nd four years ago. His ball striking here has been good and his putting on these greens has been out of this world gaining 32 strokes over the last 7 years – wow! Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T9, 2021 – T10, 2020 – T9, 2019 – 2nd, and 2018 – Cut.
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) – He seems poised to win some big events in his career and the API would be a great place to seal a victory – especially this year given the major-like field. He won five starts ago excluding his withdrawal at the BMW Championship, and is coming off a T4 at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago where he played extremely well in all facets of his game. In his rookie debut here in 2021 he had a top 10 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him around that same spot again this year given the talent he has, plus don’t forget that he seems to elevate his game in marquee tournaments. Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes over the last five years: 2022 – T38 and 2021 – T10.
