DFS Golf Picks: The AT&T Byron Nelson
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck to you!
The AT&T Byron Nelson
Preview for the AT&T Byron Nelson: This event goes back to 1944 when it was originally named the Texas Victory Open and Byron Nelson beat Jug McSpaden by 10 strokes to win the big top prize of $2,000. This tournament has been known as the AT&T Byron Nelson since 2015 but has only been hosted at the TPC Craig Ranch since last year. The all-time record at this event came last year by K.H. Lee who shot a -25 to beat Sam Burns by three strokes. Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson over the last five editions include K.H. Lee in 2021, the 2020 edition was canceled due to the pandemic, Sung Kang in 2019, Aaron Wise in 2018, Billy Horschel in 2017, and Sergio Garcia in 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is 9.1M, the winner collects $1.638M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: TPC Craig Ranch is 7,468 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are bentgrass and average a sizable 6,800 square feet. The winning score here at this tournament over the last ten editions ranges from -3 to -25, but the only score to take note of is last year’s -25 since that’s the course we will see again this year. Some core key stats to focus on this week are, in order, strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: putting, and driving accuracy percentage.
The field: Much like last week, we again have a full field of 156 players this week, and will see the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 advance to rounds 3 and 4. We will see Sam Burns, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, and other talented golfers, as well. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Three questions I have about the AT&T Byron Nelson:
1. Which 10 players gained the most strokes total at last year’s event? We have only seen this course once on the PGA Tour which was last year, and the top stroke gainers were K.H. Lee, Sam Burns, Scott Stallings, Charl Schwartzel, Patton Kizzire, Joseph Bramlett, Doc Redman, Jhonattan Vegas, Jordan Spieth, and Seamus Power.
2. Texas is known for its strong winds, do we have any to worry about this week? As of now, it looks like Thursday will be a windier day and in the afternoon specifically, so go with Thursday’s morning wave as much as possible, but also double-check on Wednesday to see where the weather stands and it can change in a hurry in the Lone Star State.
3. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes on approach over the last 24 rounds? Approach is such a huge key stat to pay attention to this week, and the top performers in this category over the last 24 rounds are Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson, and Adam Hadwin.
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: I expect that a lot of DFS users will be going with a stars and scrubs approach as the field is somewhat top-heavy, but I’ll be going with hybrid configurations to be contrarian. Look at projected ownership on Wednesday, pivot where you can, and be sure to leave at least $300 on the table in the larger GPPs.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) – The Texan Tornado has been lights out for a while now with four victories in his last six stroke-play events including his infamous Masters win where he gained a ton of strokes across the board and 17.42 total. He’s comfortable in his home State of Texas, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Scheffler adds yet another win this week – he’s solid as a rock throughout his bag! AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T47 and 2019 – T35.
Jordan Spieth (Salary: DraftKings – $10.1K) – Spieth sort of came out of nowhere in his last outing capturing the RBC Heritage win thanks to gaining 9.11 strokes ball-striking and 4.23 around the green – he lost 2.55 on the dance floor but he was so strong in every other facet of his game. He had a solid outing here last year finishing top 10 thanks to gaining strokes across the board and gained almost 5 strokes on approach. I think we are about to see another hot streak out of Jordan and you should jump on the train for a sweet ride. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T9, 2019 – T29, 2018 – T21, and 2017 – Cut.
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K) – He’s so outstanding as a ball-striker and when his short game pops, he often finishes inside the top 10. He’s making his debut on this course but he adapts well to new tracks and I expect a great performance from JT this week. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: None.
The $9K Range
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – Burns won three starts ago at the Valspar Championship as he killed it on approach and gained 8.05 with his short game, as well. He and his partner earned a 2nd at the Zurich Classic in his most recent start and that gives him three top 9’s in his last five starts overall. He’s like a super-elite player without a super-elite price tag – sign me up! AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2021 – 2nd and 2019 – T72.
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) – He just keeps pressing the gas peddle to the floor with three top 6’s in as many starts if you include his 4th at the Zurich Classic late last month. He now has five top 6’s in his last eight starts including a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open. One of these weeks he will be hoisting his first PGA Tour trophy and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens this week. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T17 and 2018 – Cut.
Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – He and Cantlay took home the top prize at the Zurich Classic and Schauffele has been good lately with lots of teen and top 10 finishes since winning the Olympic Tournament last August. He has a balanced golf bag and it regularly puts him in the top 20 and he pops when his short game is on full display. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2017 – Cut.
The $8K Range
Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – I questioned him last week at the Wells Fargo Championship as he recently had surgery but he silenced the critics with a T15 thanks to gaining 10.04 strokes on approach and another 3.79 with his short game. He had a top 10 finish here last year with strokes gained in all major stat categories, and he has the potential to repeat that this week. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T9 and 2017 – T35.
Talor Gooch (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – He consistently finds himself in the top 30 and has four top 21’s in his last five starts including a T7 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his approach and short game carried him. Gooch did fine here last year but should do a whole lot better this time around given his advancement as a pro since then. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T39 and 2018 – Cut.
Aaron Wise (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – Wise is coming off a T6 at the Mexico Open in his most recent start with a massive 7.75 strokes gained on approach and was solid around the greens gaining 2.26 strokes. He has three top 17’s in his last five starts and if his game holds up, expect another top 20 finish this week. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T55, 2019 – T43, and 2018 – Won.
The $7K Range
Davis Riley (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – Riley is an impressive young talent – case in point, he has three top 5’s in his last five starts if you include his 4th at the Zurich Classic. He’s quite reliant on his putter to pull down those top 5’s, but can really go off such as his 9.41 strokes gained with the flat stick at the Mexico Open where he finished 5th. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T29.
C.T. Pan (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – If you want a good value ball-striker, then take a close look at Pan as he has gained at least 4.12 in the stat category over his last four starts including a 6.82 gain at the Wells Fargo Championship last week where he finished T15. He has finished anywhere from 9th to T48 over his last eight starts with one missed cut in there, so he’s fairly safe and has upside. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T35, 2018 – T32, and 2017 – Cut.
Maverick McNealy (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – This seems like a good week to jump on McNealy as he’s priced to sell at under $8K and it could be because he and his partner missed the cut at the Zurich Classic in his most recent start. Prior to that, he had numerous top 30’s and a T7 at The Genesis Invitational in a stacked field. Keep an eye on his projected ownership as it will likely be high, but I’ll still be on him regardless and find pivots elsewhere. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T42.
The $6K Range
Stephan Jaeger (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – I’m not really into the $6K range this week, so I won’t dip down here too much but Jaeger isn’t a bad option if he keeps playing how he has been over his last three starts with a T6, a T15, and he had a 29th at the Zurich Classic. His stats look good too as he has gained strokes across the board over his last two starts except for a 1.63 loss off the tee at the Mexico Open. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T17 and 2018 – Cut.
Hank Lebioda (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – He has been up and down for a while now, but has made three consecutive cut lines including a T29 at the Mexico Open where he gained 10.4 strokes with his short game. He’s risky as his ball-striking hasn’t been too good lately, but if his putter and short wedges hold up, then he should pay off his salary number this week. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T17 and 2019 – Cut.
Scott Piercy (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – His stats look fairly decent over his last four starts and he has finished anywhere from T12 to T37 including his T12 at the RBC Heritage in a decent-looking field. AT&T Byron Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2019 – T2, 2018 – T32, and 2017 – T20.
