MLB Buy Low Sell High: Early-Season Pitchers’ Edition
In our never-ending quest for value in fantasy baseball, we might bump into an unexpected pitcher exceeding expectations, or a talented hurler with an extensive track record struggling to get outs. Last week, we covered some hitters to buy low or sell high. Now, it’s the turn of the men on the mound.
*Important note: All stats are through Monday
Buy Low
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Tyler Mahle, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Tyler Mahle plays for the Cincinnati Reds and has a 6.46 ERA. If that isn’t enough to scare people away, I don’t know what is. However, despite his elevated ERA, there are signs pointing towards positive regression in the upcoming starts. In other words, there is an ongoing, but limited window to buy low.
Mahle posted a 3.59 ERA in 2020 and a 3.75 ERA in 180 innings last year, with considerably more than a strikeout per inning on both occasions. And if we look at this year’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), it’s a much better 3.50: once the dust settles, his ERA will likely go down and get close to his FIP.
Mahle misses bats and has a recent history of being dominant. Right now, he is struggling with walks (12.2 BB%), but that should also come down some. He won’t win too many games in a lousy Reds team, but he is much, much better than his ERA indicates.
Freddy Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Peralta’s 5.09 ERA might force his owner into making a bad decision and trade him. If that happens, you need to be the manager to which he trades him, because that number is bound to come down in a hurry.
He is still boasting that sexy strikeout ability (29.7 percent strikeout rate) and his FIP is an excellent 2.47. He has been the victim of some bad luck, with a career-high .339 BABIP and a low strand rate of 62.1 percent.
This may be the only chance you have at an elite strikeout pitcher for the top of your rotation at a somewhat discounted price.
Steven Matz, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Talented left-hander Steven Matz just allowed eight runs in two innings against the San Francisco Giants over the weekend. His owner may be willing to trade him, that if he is not on the verge of dropping him.
Depending on your league’s depth, he may make for an ideal buy-low candidate. Remember this is a guy who had a solid 3.82 ERA in 150.2 innings in the AL East last year, and he now plays in one of the best organizations for pitchers, the St. Louis Cardinals.
If you remove his first and last start of the season (in which he allowed 15 runs combined), he has a 2.18 ERA (1.67 FIP) in 20.2 frames, with a 4/22 BB/K ratio. That’s four starts in which he was excellent. Stick with him If you have him, and target him if you don’t.
Sell High
Robbie Ray, SP, Seattle Mariners
Robbie Ray came into the Toronto Blue Jays’ camp last year throwing harder than he had in four years. Fueled by his 94.8 mph average fastball, he posted a 2.84 ERA and won the American League Cy Young award, striking out 11.54 hitters per nine innings.
This year? His ERA is 4.38 and he is fanning just 7.54 hitters per nine frames, four fewer than last year. Part of his problems are tied to his spotty command, but his average fastball velocity is down more than two miles per hour: he is at 92.6 mph this season.
Ray won’t be a sub-3.00 pitcher without last year’s velocity, and he won’t justify the price you paid for him without his strikeouts. While you can, take advantage of his name value and try to bring back some assets. His owner may not realize his velo is down, and even if it returns to some extent, 2021 was likely a career year for Ray, who has a 4.01 ERA in his nine-year MLB tenure.
Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City Royals
With Greinke, you can play the name-value card and the fact he was 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA last year with a team, the Houston Astros, that went to the World Series. Additionally, he has a 2.67 ERA in 33.2 innings this year and will pitch as much as his arm can handle now that he is with the Royals.
No matter how impeccable his command is (it really is, to be honest), there is no way he can get away with a 7.5 percent strikeout rate and have decent ratios. Nobody can. And he won’t be winning much, since Kansas City isn’t really very good.
If he can bring back a piece with a higher upside, you should jump all over that chance.
Brad Keller, SP, Kansas City Royals
Brad Keller is off to a solid start of the season, with a 1.74 ERA. He has a regular spot in the Royals’ rotation, he is stingy with home runs (0.58 per nine innings this year) and more than half of his batted balls are groundballs, so he makes for a solid real-life backend rotation piece.
For fantasy? He is not much more than a streamer. His 16.5 percent strikeout rate is mediocre at best, and there hasn’t been any significant changes regarding velocity or pitch mix. He may not be able to fetch an incredibly valuable piece in a trade, but if you happen to own him in a deep league, perhaps someone falls in love with that ERA and is eager to give up something for him. It never hurts to try.
