Austin Ekeler Fantasy 2022
Austin Ekeler was one of the best early-round fantasy draft values of last season. He typically went in the late 1st or early 2nd round, meaning he could have been paired with a Travis Kelce or even Jonathan Taylor en route to a fantasy championship. Ekeler is a player who has always had the talent, but earlier in his career often fell short of expectations due to some combination of injury, ceding goal touches, poor quarterback play, or bad coaching. None of those factors held him back last season – the talent finally aligned with the system and opportunity, making him the fantasy superstar we hoped he was capable of becoming.
To effectively gauge Ekeler’s 2022 value, let’s first look at the key pieces of information we had going into 2021 that could have foreshadowed his elite production. We can then decide which of those factors we can reasonably expect to carry over into next year. Next, we can analyze new data points gathered during the season which could sway his value higher or lower than other players in his tier.
The Signals Entering Last Season
Joe Lombardi – the “Kamara Maker”
When Joe Lombardi was brought over from New Orleans to run the offense for Los Angeles, two narratives immediately came to the forefront. One was that Mike Williams would become his new Michael Thomas and the other that Austin Ekeler would become his new Alvin Kamara. While Williams was inconsistent, these narratives seemed to have some merit and I would expect them to continue going forward.
Winning in the Trenches
The Chargers made key personnel decisions last offseason to beef up their O-line and protect their franchise quarterback. To bring in center Corey Linsley from Green Bay (after already bringing over his Packer teammate Bryan Bulaga the year prior) and spend their first-round pick on OT Rashawn Slater, the Chargers showed as much of a commitment to their offensive line as I’ve seen in recent memory outside of Dallas. Combining the running lanes from this group with Lombardi’s affinity to use an athletic back in the passing game had dual-threat fantasy gold written all over it.
What Did We Learn?
Go For It On 4th Down. Always.
Something fantasy managers loved about Justin Herbert last season should also apply to the other weapons on the offense, including Ekeler. Coach Brandon Staley’s willingness to go for it on 4th down in anything other than an obvious punt situation (and sometimes even then) is a cheat code for fantasy. A few extra plays per game, especially for an offense that can find the end zone from anywhere on the field, is significant. It allows a fantasy owner the luxury of withstanding a slight decline in efficiency due to the uptick in opportunity. I don’t see this philosophy changing for Staley as long as Herbert is behind center.
He’s Not Going To Be The Goal Line Back, eh? Oops
12 rushing touchdowns after a previous career-high of 3? That’s not a fluke. It’s a first-year head coach getting the ball to his best weapon, by design, in the most critical moments. While the sheer efficiency Ekeler showed in the red zone could certainly regress, I’m paying far more attention to what the team wants to do, which is to feed him in scoring opportunities. Combine that with their 4th down hubris and I like Ekeler’s chances to repeat double-digit scores on the ground.
How Does Ekeler Compare Against Other Elite First-Rounders?
This is a lot of love for Ekeler, but we still need to understand his relative ranking against other fantasy superstars. For me, there is no question that he is in the top 5 overall in PPR redraft leagues. Jonathan Taylor has earned his status as the consensus number one overall pick based on his skillset, workload, age, and offensive line. After Taylor, the next set of players are awfully close to one another. In full PPR leagues, I tend to favor pass-catching ability as a tiebreaker among players in the same tier, which obviously bodes well for Ekeler.
Right off the bat, there are few elite players who I would rank behind Ekeler without hesitation – Cooper Kupp, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey. Ekeler has the position advantage over Kupp, the surrounding talent advantage over Kamara, and the injury history advantage over CMC, making this an easy decision for me. That really only leaves two players who make for a tough decision in ranking relative to Ekeler – Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. Let’s take a closer look at each of them…
With regards to Cook, Minnesota just made a head coaching change with Jim Harbaugh Kevin O’Connell calling the shots, and they could also potentially move away from Kirk Cousins. I could easily see them pivoting from a heavily run-centric offense, particularly as previous head coach Mike Zimmer and OC Klint Kubiak were about as committed to #EstablishIt as any staff in the league.
Derrick Henry lit the world on fire for 8 weeks before injuring his foot, and amassed an absurd 219 carries during that stretch. While Henry is simply built differently than any player in the game (and perhaps any human on Earth), it is reasonable to expect a more cautious approach with him next season. This is especially plausible after the Titans showed they can have serviceable production from other backs in his absence.
Cook and Henry both give me some slight concerns due to the lack of continuity in their respective situations, giving the nod to Ekeler. That puts Ekeler at #2 overall in my PPR redraft rankings, certainly above consensus.
How many can you do? pic.twitter.com/2ssFMKCPeO
— Austin Ekeler (@AustinEkeler) February 17, 2022
How Do We Adjust Ekeler’s Value in Dynasty Leagues?
As high as I am on Ekeler, it’s important to note that he does need to be appropriately discounted in dynasty formats. At 26 years old, there are some proven but younger players who should have higher trade value than Ekeler. Obvious examples would include Najee Harris and D’Andre Swift (both age 23), but where the decision becomes very difficult is in comparing his dynasty trade value against young talented receivers. For instance, players like D.K. Metcalf or Tee Higgins could be stars for longer than Ekeler and are worth consideration to swap for. I personally wouldn’t…
For me, Ekeler is slightly undervalued in Dynasty entering this season because of his age. When looking at his mileage, I’m far less concerned about his longevity compared to other backs his age. Through five seasons, Ekeler only has a career total of 607 carries. Compare that to two other star 26-year-old RBs Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara, who have career carry totals of 1018 and 912, respectively. While Ekeler also gets much of his work through the air, carries are where the wear and tear happen. The inexplicable reluctance of previous Charger coaches to fully feature him in the offense may actually help him turn back the clock and create sneaky dynasty value.
If I were to seek value for Ekeler across positions, I would aim high for someone like Jaylen Waddle (23), who had a wildly underappreciated rookie season overshadowed by what Ja’Marr Chase accomplished in Cincinnati. If you can take advantage of a perception gap like that in dynasty, I certainly wouldn’t argue with it. Otherwise, I think you have a fine asset to hang onto with Ekeler.
