Monday Night Football: Bills vs. 49ers
The Bills have defeated three of the four teams in the NFC West this season. The 49ers have had mixed results against the AFC East, demolishing New England and New York while being on the receiving end of a drubbing courtesy of the Miami Dolphins. Using the Odds Comparison Tool supplied by BettingData, let’s take a look at this matchup between two of the most well-coached teams in the NFL.
Game Info
- Spread: 49ers -1
- Total: 47
- See Live Odds
The Bills will look to handle the pesky 49ers in this road matchup, as a loss this week could allow the Dolphins a chance to steal the AFC East crown from them. While this is a road game for Buffalo, it will also be a road game for the 49ers, who will be playing this game in Arizona due to the recently enacted bans in the Bay Area to combat the spread of COVID-19. Josh Allen has been an MVP caliber player all season long, but San Francisco’s defense remains one of the league’s most dangerous units, allowing only 315.2 YPG (6th in the NFL) and only 23.1 PPG (11th in the NFL). The Bills offense has been very solid this season, ranking 10th in PPG (27.2) and 11th in YPG (372.5), setting up the proverbial battle between the irresistible force and the immovable object. Though San Francisco’s offense has been decimated by injuries, they finally have Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk healthy at once. The Rams defense had no answer for Samuel last week despite boasting one of the best secondaries in the league. This game should ultimately come down to the turnover battle, as the team that controls the time of possession will likely emerge victoriously.
Buffalo Bills
- Overall: 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 7-3-1 O/U
- Road: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-1-1 O/U
A win for Buffalo this week basically seals their playoff berth, as they face the Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins in the games that follow their Week 14 tilt with Pittsburgh. Something tells me that Buffalo could be looking past this game with the 49ers, as that Steelers game will be a good indication of whether or not this team is a legit contender. Assuming the Bills are at least partially focused on next week’s game in their prep leading up to this one, the Niners could look to take full advantage by hitting Buffalo with everything in their arsenal. As we’ve seen all season long, this team can win games on attrition alone, so the Bills will need to be focused to emerge victorious in this one. Vegas seems to agree with my assessment, as the even spread for this game is rather unusual for a battle between a healthy 8-3 club and a 5-6 team with their backup quarterback starting. Though Buffalo has yet to lose to a team with a losing record this season, we’re entering the part of the schedule where teams like this fall to inferior teams because they’re beginning to count their eggs before they hatch.
San Francisco 49ers
- Overall: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U
- Home: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U
The 49ers seem to believe that they can still make the playoffs, with the seventh seed still a realistic possibility. To make this possibility a reality the 49ers will essentially have to run the table, a feat that could be difficult due to the fact that they will be playing Arizona and Seattle to close out the season. Though they play Washington (a “gimme”) and Dallas (another “gimme”) in the games that follow this one, beating both Arizona and Seattle will be a Herculean effort. That’s why winning this game is so important. If the Niners are 8-6 heading into their Week 16 battle with the Cardinals, they could make that game a “win and you’re in” matchup. Beating Seattle in Week 17 is unlikely, even if George Kittle returns. If I’m to bet on one of these teams, I’m taking San Francisco based purely on their desperation and the fact that they “need” this win more than the Bills do.
Best Player Props
These odds are more found at DraftKings Sportsbook
Cole Beasley | Receptions over 4.5 (-143)
- Beasley has caught six or more passes in four games this season. With John Brown out and Stefon Diggs likely to draw extra attention from the 49ers’ safeties, I’m loving Beasley’s odds on this prop. We’ve seen Josh Allen lean on him in big games, and this one should be no different. Against a tough pass defense, a slot target like Beasley seems like a nice safety blanket to bet on, especially if the Bills fall behind early.
Jordan Reed | Receptions Over 3.5 (+140)
- Reed has been sharing time with Ross Dwelley since returning from IR, which is likely the reason why he’s got such favorable odds on this prop. On the season, the Bills defense has allowed an average of six receptions per game to tight ends. While Reed has only caught four or more passes in two of his six games played this season, the odds on this prop feel very worthwhile.
Zack Moss | Score a Touchdown (+225)
- Moss is a stocky back at 5’9, 223 lbs. He’s built for the red zone and he’s already scored four touchdowns this season (3 rushing, 1 receiving). All of his scores on the ground have come from 10 yards or less this season, so he’s a safe bet to score a rushing touchdown despite the unfavorable matchup on paper.
