DraftKings NFL Picks Week 13: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Jared Goff, Cam Newton
• PIVOTS: Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr
• PUNTS: Matt Ryan, Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield

The QB position is tough this week and I think the higher-priced QBs will end up being Bad Chalk. The top QBs are in projected blow-out games and/or games their team is set-up better with the run. Each of the top 5 QBs by salary are solid plays but I’m likely to just pay down at QB this week and target good point-per-dollar options. Guys like Jared Goff and Cam Newton are in two of the better, more competitive game environments where their opponents tilt toward their strengths. Arizona is easier to throw on than run, although McVay will certainly still pound the rock. Notably, Goff’s best games this year have all come on the road and Goff was an animal against Arizona last year with passing totals of 424 and 319 yards in the two meetings with a combined 5 touchdowns. The Chargers are good at keeping the offense in front of them but allowing opponents to accumulate yardage on the dink and dunk stuff and via run plays. That fits what the Patriots have Cam doing (Cam only throwing deep 1.7 times per game versus the top 9 guys throwing deep 5+ times per game). Between Cam’s running and quick throws, the Patriots should be able to move the ball and get Cam into some green-zone carries. Both Goff and Cam are $5800 this week, and even though I have them listed as best bets, I don’t expect either to produce the highest QB score on the slate. 

The two guys who I think could put up the highest QB scores this week are Kirk Cousins and Ryan Tannehill. The field will be all over Cook and Henry leaving these guys to have somewhat depressed ownership. Both guys are in spots where the defenses open up the passing game. Dalvin Cook is still a great matchup-based play but we can get leverage against him if he’s still gimpy or the Jags continue to improve against the run. People are going to look at what Chubb did against the Jags defense last week and want to plug in Cook. Cool, but the price is high for Cook, and he could disappoint on a point per dollar basis without any TDs. The Vikings are top 5 in run-rate this year but have been dialing up the pass more often as of late and are less run-heavy at home. If the Vikings continue to open up the passing game then Kirk Cousins has a shot at a top QB score this week as long as the Jaguars can keep pace long enough for the Vikes to keep their foot on the gas. Ryan Tannehill is in a game we should expect the field to be quite heavy on Derrick Henry. The Browns are going to sell-out to stop Henry this week and have a front seven that could actually get this done (Garrett expected to return this week). If they succeed in slowing Henry down on the early downs and force the ball into Tannehill’s hands – or Arthur Smith game-plans for the extra attention on Henry to give Tannehill high-percentage plays in the passing game it could push Tannehill up the board this week. Derek Carr is another interesting play for this slate. The Raiders looked like they were hung-over from their Super Bowl against the Chiefs the week before falling flat to the Falcons last week. This should move a good portion of the field off of the Raiders and Derek Carr here. If Josh Jacobs continues to be the chalk play from this Raiders team in a perceived easy matchup against the Jets, then we have leverage with Carr. The Jets are not an easy running game match-up and are far easier to throw on. Carr is typically stacked with Waller, which is a fine combo this week. Adding a guy like Agholor to the stack will differentiate our lines even further.

Matt Ryan had a horrible game against the Saints just two weeks ago, so why have him listed here? Because the Saints don’t let their opponents run the ball (and ATL can’t/doesn’t run). If Ryan has both Julio and Ridley (and Hurst) healthy for this one, then he should be able to keep drives going better than the Falcons did last game when he was down Julio and Hurst for most of the game, and who knows how healthy Ridley was. There’s a lot of “ifs” in here but we’re looking at punt guys that may have better a opportunity than the field is considering. Mitchell Trubisky is a thin play this week and one I may not get to but he’s in a great matchup. The Lions are getting smoked through the air. The Lions last three QBs faced have yardage totals of 318 (Watson), 258 (Walker in his 1st career start), and 390 (Alex Smith). The Lions allow the 3rd-most 20+ yard passes against and the Bears are throwing 20+ yard passes at a rate of 5 per game (both Foles and Trubisky are at 5+). My interest in Trubisky started when looking at Allen Robinson for this slate and it came around to liking them as a duo-stack, as this game should be competitive with the Patricia firing lighting the spark for the Lions. Baker Mayfield made the list last week, then I erased him from the pool. Baker turned out to be the best points-per-dollar play of the week (and adds points to why I like Cousins this week) and is priced no different than last week. Can he do it again? If the Titans can slow down Chubb, then maybe. Jarvis Landry finally woke up for the season last week and would be a solid pairing.

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, James Robinson, Austin Ekeler
• PIVOTS: Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, David Montgomery
• PUNTS: James White, Chase Edmonds

The 5 RBs listed as “Best Bets” this week are literally just that. These are the 4 guys most likely to finish in the top 4 or 5 RBs this week. They all see bell-cow usage and are in game environments that set them up well for success. All 5 are likely to be chalky this week and there are ways to play and fade these guys that make sense. That being said, I’ll do both. I’ll have exposure to this group and will leverage the passing games against Cook and Henry in other builds. James Robinson is going to be on the field whether or not this game is competitive and will get all the carries and most of the RB targets. He’s hard to fade if you think he can get to 20 points in this game. Minnesota is allowing 23.1 PPR fantasy points to RBs this year, which doesn’t include the DK bonus for 100-yard games. Austin Ekeler will share carries with either Kelley or Ballage but Ekeler is the guy with the best vision of the group and most likely to find success on the ground while also seeing plenty of targets as the Patriots try to take away Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. After Ekeler’s heavy usage last week, expect him to be popular again here. 

The pivot group this week are all speculative plays with plenty of uncertainty surrounding them. Alvin Kamara being priced at $7000 immediately caught my attention. With Taysom Hill under center, Kamara has been left to wilt on the vine. The price point is low enough I’m willing to try catching the falling knife in a few builds. Payton has to realize the weakness of the Falcons defense is through the air. The Falcons have allowed a league-high 10 targets per game to opposing RBs which fits right into Kamara’s (not Murray’s, who stole a bunch of points last week) wheelhouse. Kamara hasn’t been a publicly squeaky wheel for the ball (at least that I have seen) but I’d have to assume he is in Payton’s ear about his touches recently. As long as his foot checks out, Kamara could be a sneaky play against the field who will fade him due to his box scores with Taysom. The Colts are set up to feature their running game this week against a pathetic Texans run defense that has allowed opponent RBs to score 21.6 points per game against them just through rushing the ball. Jonathan Taylor got a week off to rest after being deemed a close-contact/high-risk COVID case. Taylor is back to his Weeks 1 and 2 pricing even though he has the matchup in his favor. The Texans offense took a hit with the Fuller suspension which could render them a bit helpless here and keep the game script in Taylor’s favor. David Montgomery finally had a breakout game last week with Trubisky as the QB. With Foles at QB, the Bears were tilted heavily toward the pass with Foles throwing 40.3 times per game. With Trubisky under center, that number drops to 36.7. Last week was the only game this year in which Montgomery and Trubisky played and Tarik Cohen didn’t. Could this be the start of a run for Monty putting up solid fantasy points? The Lions defense could help that trend gain traction as they have allowed opposing RBs to score a league-high 32.6 points against them (9 point boost in RB scoring) and a league-high 1.55 rushing TDs per game at a 55% multi-TD rate.

The Chargers are one of the handful of teams that are funneling targets to RBs at an 8+ per game rate and are allowing a good chunk of their modest 24.7 points allowed to RBs through the passing game. New England will try to run at the Chargers as much as possible but James White may be Cam’s check down friend with the coverages forcing him to look short. The Chargers allow 3 TDs per game through land and air which opens the opportunity for White to post a solid point-per-dollar score if you’re looking for a cheaper play at RB. Chase Edmonds is in the same boat, as the Rams secondary is daunting and QBs tend to look inside for receivers against them. Edmonds averages 4.2 targets per game and Murray is using his backs more in the passing game as of late with Drake and Edmonds splitting 17 targets over the last 2 games. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown
• PIVOTS: Tyler Lockett, Vikings WRs, Allen Robinson, DeVante Parker, Rams WRs
• PUNTS: D.J. Chark, Nelson Agholor, Corey Davis, Michael Pittman
• DEEPER PUNTS: Jets WRs, Laviska Shenault, Mack Hollins

Davante Adams gets to take on the guy that DK Metcalf just destroyed on MNF. Adams isn’t the bully Metcalf is but his route-running and technique are superb. At $9000 to play, he’s going to need around 30 points. Basically, he’s going to need a Metcalf game or something close to it. Given the way Philly forces teams into a pass-heavy approach, it won’t be a surprise if Adams gets there. He’s one I’ll have to figure out how much exposure I’ll have after building rosters for a bit. DK Metcalf will see the Bradbury Blanket this week, who is having a better season than Slay so far and may be able to hold his own a little better against DK than Slay did. Regardless, the WR has the advantage in most matchups, which will be the case here. The main snag is Seattle may be able to control the game with a more balanced attack and not have to feed Metcalf another 13 targets. The DK hype also gives us a chance to roster his teammate Tyler Lockett, who will get the benefit of running his routes against the other corners. Lockett has a 56 point and 40 point game on his 2020 resume and has been quiet for a bit. Let the field chase DK and pivot over to Lockett for leverage. Of the 3 listed in the “Best Bet” group, it’s A.J. Brown that gives us the best leverage of the bunch. The field will chase Derrick Henry allowing the pivot over to the passing game to gain leverage against those builds. Tannehill and either Brown or/and Corey Davis will be one of my more frequent QB/WR(s) stacks this week. Brown doesn’t carry the raw point upside that Adams and the Seattle guys have but if those guys have don’t hit their point-per-dollar score expectations, then it’s likely A.J. Brown will, and he’ll cost less to get those points. 

After Lockett, the two WRs with the highest leverage and raw upside this week will be Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. These two were starting to hit their stride together in Weeks 10 and 11 before Thielen missed last week. In those two games, they had a net of 37.9 (3x net salary) and 61.3 (5x net salary). It’s highly possible these guys net a score within these ranges this week and would only need to combine for 42.6 points to hit a 3x net salary score. Dalvin will need 28.5 points to hit his 3x score, which is why I like the Cousins + Thielen + Jefferson stack for the price. Allen Robinson is back to shagging flies from Trubisky, who peppered him 13 targets last week. Foles and Trubisky both struggle with accuracy, see NFL Next Gen Expected Completion percentage data. So neither QB is much of an upgrade either way. The largest difference is that Trubisky has attempted fewer passes per game than Foles has and the Lions can be run on just as easily as they can be thrown at. Detroit is funneling the 3rd-highest percentage of throws to the WRs position for the slate, and as I noted on Twitter this week, the Lions have allowed exactly 52.3 to WRs in back to back weeks while shutting out TEs completely in both those games. If Trubisky meets his 2020 average of 37.6 pass attempts per game and the Lions allowance of 61.7% go to the WRs, and Robinson sees his 2020 average of 29.3% targets that Trubisky has been sending him, then A-Rob would see 7 targets. Robinson had 9 in the first game against Detroit so we would need an increase in targets or efficiency equal to what Robinson has last week for this play to work. I’m expecting the Patricia firing to boost the Lions and possibly have them playing with the lead forcing Trubisky’s pass attempts to increase and Robinson’s volume to climb as well. 

With the sheer lack of quality weapons on the Dolphins, by default, DeVante Parker is going to see heavy volume from here on out. He’s priced beautifully to capitalize on this potential trend this week, although I don’t doubt he’ll be chalky because of this. If we’re following the trend of Jared Goff’s productivity spike on the road this year, then we’re going to want to attack the Cardinals with him and his WRs. The Cardinals are a middle of the road defense with poorly graded corners that allow matchup-boosting points per route covered. If Goff throws for the same type of yards as he did in the two 2019 meeting, then one or two of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds (and maybe one of the TEs) could explode like Woods did with an 18 target, 13 catch, 172 yard game in the first meeting with Arizona last year. Tyler Higbee was a big contributor in both games while Kupp would have added enough points to make the stack of any two of these guys + Kupp with Goff quite the payoff. In Week 13 last year, the combo of Goff/Woods/Kupp/Higbee totaled 100 DK points. Then, in Week 17, the combo of Goff/Woods/Kupp/Higbee scored a combined 93 points. These guys might be my heaviest rostered stack this week.

In the punt groups, we have a volatile D.J. Chark, who is capable of putting up 30 points in any game. For as bad as the Jaguars corners are, the Vikings group is not much better as they allow a 3.9 bump to outside WRs (3rd-most for the slate. If Glennon takes another 6 deep shots this week and Chark is involved, then he can certainly post a quality score. Laviska Shenault is still in the mid-$3k area and could see a significant role in this game if Chark and/or Conley miss. Nelson Agholor is who I would prefer to stack Derek Carr with, but he hasn’t practiced as of Thursday leaving his availability in doubt. Agholor has become the most reliable outside threat for the Raiders. Corey Davis could be the pivot if it looks like A.J. Brown’s ownership is going to be higher than expected. Davis is also a fine stack-add to go along with Tanny and Brown to make it more unique. With Bradley Roby suspended, it opens up the Colts passing game, if needed. Should the Colts show balance and mix in enough passes, we have seen Michael Pittman take the alpha role there over the past few weeks. Pittman should see 7 to 9 targets in this spot. Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman are the cheapest way to approach the Jets WR group, and lately, they have been the most reliable. Jamison Crowder has the best matchup per the Matchup Chart but has not seen the targets needed to post a decent score. Perhaps that changes this week but I might rather take my shots on the outside with Mims and Perriman taking turns running routes against Arnette. The Jets are likely to be playing form behind for most of this game – or if they get ahead it’s because they were attacking through the passing game – making these guys somewhat interesting down in the $3.9 to 4.1k area. Mack Hollins may have overtaken Grant as the Dolphins #2 WR based on last week’s snaps and targets (although the targets are low). If needing a minimum priced WR this week, Hollins might be worth a look.

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson
• PIVOTS: Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee
• PUNTS: Jordan Akins, Anthony Firkser

Darren Waller will be Carr’s main target this week, especially if Agholor misses. The Jets have been beaten up by good TEs this year (Reed, Kelce, Henry) and Waller should be able to do much of the same type of scoring as those guys did (Reed = 24 points, Kelce = 27.9, and Henry = 14.8 — and the Dolphins trio posted a combined 24.1 last week). This will likely put him as chalk but the matchup for the Raiders tilts to them taking to the air. T.J. Hockenson has been carrying the load for the past few weeks as the Lions wait for Golladay to return. Hock caught 5 passes for 56 yards and a TD against this Bears defense in Week 1 and the Bears have gone on to surrender an average of 16.2 points per game to TEs on the year (2nd-most in the league), including last week’s allowance of 28.8 points to the Green Bay trio. 

With the lack of quality pass-catching option in Miami right now, Mike Gesicki and his 5 targets in each of the last 3 games inspire some level of confidence in a workload that could produce fantasy points if things fall his way against a Cincinnati defense that is allowing 8 targets a game to the TE position. Tyler Higbee went for 26.7 and 22.4 against the Cardinals last year as part of his epic run down the stretch of the season. Gerald Everett wasn’t around to compete for the ball in those games so there could be some disappointment if expecting that same type of score. However, it’s not out of the question to project one of the Rams TEs can have a solid 5 catch, 50 yards, with a TD type of game. Higbee still holds the starting TE role and out-snaps Everett on a weekly basis but their target share goes back and forth. Either TE is in play here. 

Jordan Akins is back on the punt list due to the Fuller suspension and Cobb’s stay on Injured Reserve. The Texans are down to Cooks, Coutee, Fells, and Akins. Akins plays more of the flex/slot role between him and Fells and is the more athletic player, giving him the boost for potential upside. The ball has to go somewhere and Akins may be the number two or three target now. With Jonnu Smith injured and ineffective, Anthony Firkser looks like he may be one of the better punt TEs this week. Geoff Swaim started last week and out-targeted Firkser, so there is a zero score risk here. Firkser has typically been the second receiving option among the TEs so he could bounce back if Smith is out. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Dolphins, Packers
• PIVOTS: Seahawks, Colts
• PUNTS: Falcons, Giants

The Bengals and their old coaches will travel to Miami this week with their franchise QB out. The Dolphins have been playing excellent defense and face the team allowing the second-most sacks in the league. Speaking of sacks, Carson Wentz loves them. The Packers have a terrific pass rush to get after Wentz and force some bad throws if they don’t get home. The Seahawks going against Colt McCoy on the road in the PNW is an advantage to Seattle. They finally found a pass-rusher when they traded for Dunlap and Adams gets after the QB as well. Deshaun Watson is no stranger to getting sacked and will be playing short-handed at the skill positions. The Colts just got thrashed and will see DeFo and Autry return to the middle of their D-Line this week. Taysom Hill has the highest sack per drop back of any starting QB. This comes with only two weeks of data but the Falcons played this guy not really knowing what to expect last time and their defense is turning the corner as well. They’re not a bad play down the salary board if needing to budget on DST. The Giants are the top “cheap DST” this week for me. If Seattle can control the ball on the ground and keep it low scoring, they won’t lose a ton of points for that. Wilson gets sacked once every 14 dropbacks (5th-highest among this week’s starting QBs) which could create some opportunity for sack points. They’re not going to post a high score, but perhaps they don’t lose very many of the 10 points they start with.

FINAL THOUGHTS 

Overall this slate doesn’t have a lot to love but there are plenty of places to like that won’t be as popular as a chalk slate. Still, there will be chalk, more than likely with the high profile/safe players. I’m looking forward to diving deeper into roster construction over the weekend to see where I land with the guys talked about here and to discover how many lines I think I’ll need to cover everything I like. It’s early on Friday at this point, so there’s still injury news and any unexpected Covid breakouts to look at. My player pool starts here but evolves throughout the weekend. You can keep track by checking in on The Workbook. Feel free to ask me questions about players on Twitter @majesstik1. Thanks for reading, and good luck this week!