Bold Predictions: Week One
Do you like reading about fantasy football bold predictions? If the answer is yes then you’re in the right place. This column will present five bold predictions each week of the NFL regular season. The intent is to present predictions that aren’t too outlandish and that could actually come to fruition based on personnel changes, advanced metrics, coaching changes, and other information. With this in mind here are five bold predictions for Week 1.
1. Tyler Lockett Finishes as the WR1 in PPR formats.
Lockett set career highs in multiple statistical categories last season including receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. The 26-year old receiver gained easy separation from defenders on his routes tieing for 5th in our target separation metric. Quarterback Russell Wilson had a perfect passer rating when targeting Lockett last season. The only WR who finished with a higher true catch rate was Will Fuller. This metric divides total receptions by total catchable targets. Lockett’s 2.67 yards per pass route was impressive considering he only had 71 targets last season. He led all WRs with 3.1 fantasy points per target.
Six players posted a 60%+ catch rate on deep passes (20+ yards downfield) in 2018 among 76 dudes with 10+ deep targets (PFF)
Tyler Lockett (78%)
…
Rashard Higgins (69%)
…
Jared Cook (64%)
Tyler Boyd (64%)
Corey Davis (62%)
Christian Kirk (60%)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 5, 2019
The Seattle Seahawks open the 2019 season as heavy favorites according to Vegas at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals allowed the most fantasy points per game last season. Lockett should see a boost in targets this season due to the retirement of Doug Baldwin. The Bengals secondary is still a disaster entering Week 1 and their slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard is on the PUP list to start the season. Lockett will line up all over the football field in the season opener and eviscerate the Bengals when lined up in the slot. Highly touted D.K. Metcalf should be active and threaten the Bengals defense vertically which will open things up even more underneath for the Seahawks. Don’t hesitate to deploy Lockett in fantasy lineups this week.
2. Marquise Goodwin Finishes as a Top-15 Fantasy Wide Receiver
Goodwin broke out in 2017 and set career highs in games played (16), targets (105), receptions (56), and receiving yards (962). Fantasy players had high expectations for him entering last season, but he did not meet expectations. Goodwin only played in 11 games finishing with 23 receptions for 395 receiving yards while setting a career-high with four touchdowns. Rookie Dante Pettis had a promising rookie season in 2018 and has been touted as a 2019 breakout candidate all offseason. The San Francisco 49ers also used two of their first three draft picks on wide receivers selecting Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd to the roster. Tight end George Kittle will also command a high target share after finishing last season as the TE3 in PPR formats. As we enter Week 1 Goodwin is listed as the No. 2 WR on the depth chart with Pettis as the No. 1 and Samuel as the No. 3.
The 49ers open the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road with the third-highest Vegas point total (50.5) of Week 1. There will be a ton of points scored in what is anticipated to be a close game. The Buccaneer’s defense is expected to be more aggressive and use various pass-rush packages under new coordinator Todd Bowles. He is likely to task his defensive backs to play more press-man coverage than they have in the past. This would play to the strengths of their personnel. One drawback to this coverage is that if the WR gets past the defender then the defender is dependent on his speed to catch up to the receiver. Goodwin had an official 40-yard dash time of 4.27 at the 2013 NFL Scouting Combine.
3. Matthew Stafford Finishes as the QB1
Here is what I said about Stafford in the Week 1 edition of Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em:
Stafford played through small fractures in his back during the 2018 NFL season. He wanted to keep his consecutive games streak (128) going. Stafford is healthy entering this season. He averaged 38.8 passing attempts, 277 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns, and 20.4 fantasy points per game from 2009 to 2017.
Stafford disappointed fantasy players last season in new Detroit Lions head coach Matt Patricia’s run-heavy scheme last season. Did you know that it marked the first time he failed to surpass 4,000 or more passing yards? Stafford averaged a dismal 6.8 yards per attempt. He draws an excellent matchup against an Arizona Cardinals defense missing All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson due to a suspension. The Cardinals allowed 26.6 points per game last season with ranked 26th in the NFL. Stafford enters this season with exceptionally athletic tight end T.J. Hockenson, slot receiver Danny Amendola, a healthy Marvin Jones, and ascending star Kenny Golladay. This supporting cast will propel Stafford to a bounce-back season.
4. Mark Andrews Finishes as the TE1
Andrews was one of the most discussed players this offseason and during the preseason. He became one of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s favorite targets last season. Andrews averaged 45 receiving yards per game with him under center. He is a reliable target for Jackson as the QB continues to improve his presence in the pocket. It would not come as a surprise if Andrews is a mismatch nightmare for opposing defenses and leads the Ravens in receptions in 2019.
Mark Andrews is a potential breakout candidate as he enters his sophomore season!
Read up on the #Ravens tight end and all breakout candidates!https://t.co/UuhUFmvGot pic.twitter.com/PYifaG7FvF
— PFF BAL Ravens (@PFF_Ravens) September 3, 2019
The Ravens open up the regular season against Miami. The Dolphins ranked in the bottom-10 in points allowed (433), offensive played allowed (1,024), yards allowed (6,257), 1st downs allowed (350), and third-down success rate (43%). The team allowed the most yards (6,257) and second-most points (433) in franchise history in 2018. The Dolphins didn’t make many upgrades during the offseason. Andrews will finish Week 1 as the second most targeted Ravens receiver behind Willie Snead.
5. Dion Lewis Leads the Titans Backfield in Touches and PPR Fantasy Points
Lewis finished last season with an opportunity share of 48.4 percent while teammate Derrick Henry finished with 50.8 percent. This metric measures the percentage of the total team running back carries plus targets. Lewis was on the football field 20 percent more often than Henry. He set a new career-high in touches and targets, but failed to translate volume into fantasy points. The Titans averaged the second-fewest pass attempts per game in 2018 with 27.3. They could pass more under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, but one thing is certain. Lewis plays an integral role for the Titans as a receiver out of the backfield (ranked ninth in receiving target market share among RBs) and is superior to Henry in that facet of the game. Henry’s last four games of the 2018 garner a lot of attention. He had 87 rushing attempts, 585 rushing yards, and seven touchdowns. Henry averaged an insane 146.2 yards per game and a 6.72 yards per carry average. He had more rushing yards in his last four games than the first 12 games combined (474).
The Titans did not sign Lewis to a four year, $19.8 million contract to make Henry their three-down workhorse. The Week 1 matchup against the Cleveland Browns bodes well for Lewis’ outlook. Vegas has assigned the ninth-highest point total to this game along with a spread that implies Cleveland will play with a lead. This would lead to a negative game script for Lewis and the Titans offense. Based on past usage this would lead to more opportunities for Lewis. Henry has missed a high percentage of training camp with a calf injury. Many dots are connecting for Lewis to surprise fantasy players in Week 1.
Do you agree or disagree with these bold predictions? Let me know what you think on Twitter (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.
Dominate Your Fantasy League!
Become a member at FantasyData and get access to the industry’s best fantasy football subscription available!
