Week 1 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Fantasy drafts are still going on but Thursday night is only a few days away. The league will provide a star-studded matchup for the first game of the 2022 NFL regular season, putting Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills up against the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams at SoFi stadium. Will the Rams have a championship hangover? Can Josh Allen throw five touchdowns and make Gabriel Davis a household name?
Week 1 has a lot of storylines to navigate. It can be treacherous territory considering the lack of data to analyze and added difficulty with a reduced preseason schedule. Flukey outcomes tend to happen in Week 1, but that doesn’t mean you should fade some of the best players acquired during fantasy drafts.
Matt MacKay returns to help guide you through the difficult start/sit decisions for the entirety of the 2022 fantasy football season. Let’s find out which players are safe in Week 1 lineups and also identify which players to avoid.
Start ‘EM
Josh Jacobs (RB) Las Vegas Raiders
Concerns about Jacobs playing in the Hall of Fame game under new head coach Josh McDaniels were valid at the time. Now, with Kenyan Drake removed from the backfield and now playing in Baltimore, Jacobs should maintain a comfortable grip on the RB1 role heading into an AFC West battle against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi stadium. The Chargers upgraded their defense with Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson this offseason, but they still allowed the sixth-highest number of fantasy points to opposing running backs (26.17) in 2021.
Josh Jacobs’ 54 receptions were the 5th most of any running back in 2021.
He’s entering a scheme that allowed James White to finish as PPR RB7 in 2018.
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) February 22, 2022
Jacobs began last year with a two-touchdown performance with only 34 yards against a stout Ravens defense. Expect several goal-line opportunities for Jacobs to cash in on with the new addition of star wide receiver Davante Adams.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence reunites with his former collegiate teammate, Travis Etienne after a Lisfranc injury kept him out for the entirety of his rookie season. The 23-year-old running back manufactured two 1,600-yard rushing seasons during his sophomore and junior seasons at Clemson. Lawrence was a big reason for his increased usage as a receiver out of the backfield, catapulting his receptions from 12 to 37 during the 2019 season. During their last year together, Etienne hauled in 48 receptions for 588 receiving yards. His unique combination of size and speed will result in new head coach Doug Pederson dialing up plays for him frequently against a banged-up Washington defense. Etienne was a touchdown machine in college and he’ll showcase his talents on the road against the Commanders in Week 1.
J.K. Dobbins (RB) Baltimore Ravens
One of the most prolific college running backs to ever suit up at Ohio State, J.K. Dobbins is recovering from an ACL tear that he suffered last preseason. The 23-year-old has one of the league’s most explosive quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson joining him in a run-centric offensive scheme. Dobbins was held in check for the first half of his rookie season but the Ravens unleashed him as their primary RB1 and never looked back.
Concerns about Dobbins’ recovery from the ACL tear have been rampant this offseason but he is no longer listed on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list and has been participating in drills. The Jets’ run defense is perhaps the best matchup for any running back in Week 1, as they surrendered the most fantasy points (32.39) to running backs in 2021. Deploy Dobbins and watch him decimate the Jets.
Marquise Brown (WR) Arizona Cardinals
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown reunited with former college teammate, quarterback Kyler Murray, after being traded from Baltimore this offseason. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six weeks, meaning Brown will have little competition for targets from others in the Cardinals’ wide receiving corps. The speedster finished 2021 as the WR23 despite missing Lamar Jackson’s presence for five games. Brown hauled in a career-high 91 receptions for his first 1,000-yard season in a run-centric Baltimore offense. The air-raid playcalling of Cardinals’ head coach, Kliff Kingsbury, combined with Murray’s big arm, will create numerous big play opportunities for Brown. He gets an exciting Week 1 matchup at home against a Kansas City Chiefs secondary that allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers (35.28) and no longer rosters Tyran Mathieu in its secondary.
Gabe Davis (WR) Buffalo Bills
The Gabe Davis hype train took off during the offseason and Josh Allen co-signed the hype. Will we see Davis immediately jump into stardom in the league’s season opener against the Rams? I believe so. Jalen Ramsey will be preoccupied with Stefon Diggs, while Allen has the massive arm and mobility to buy time under pressure from a loaded Rams’ front-seven. The third-year wideout acquired six touchdowns in the regular season, including a 100-yard performance against the Jets. However, this was nothing compared to the production Davis saved for the 2021 AFC Divisional matchup against Kansas City, where he delivered an 8-201-4 stat line. Davis is the biggest target in an undersized Bills’ wide receiving corps and could deliver another monstrous performance to kickstart his 2022 season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit has been one of the most fun teams to watch this offseason due to the gritty nature displayed by second-year head coach Dan Campbell. Jared Goff doesn’t get enough credit for his arm talent. He did lead the Rams to a 13-3 record in 2018 with a Super Bowl appearance against the New England Patriots. He threw for a career-low 3,245 yards during his first year with the Lions in 2021 but it didn’t matter for Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production. The second-year wideout had a stellar rookie campaign, finishing with 90 receptions for 912 yards and five touchdowns, resulting in 182.3 fantasy points in half-PPR formats. DJ Chark’s presence will create more opportunities, not less, for St. Brown to dominate opposing defensive backs with his crisp route running and soft hands. The Eagles blew out the Lions in 2021 and their defense allowed the third-fewest fantasy points (29.05) to wide receivers, but it’s a new year in the Motor City. Start St. Brown and watch the points pile up.
Pat Freiermuth (TE) Pittsburgh Steelers
The retirement of long-time franchise quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will not damage Pat Freiermuth’s usage. Mitch Trubisky could lean on the second-year tight end frequently behind a bad offensive line, especially early in the season. Freiermuth looked like a veteran during his rookie season, which is not a common occurrence in the NFL. Even juicier is the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends (14.85) in 2021. Trubisky will look towards his security blankets in a hostile road environment in Week 1, resulting in Najee Harris and Freiermuth garnering a ton of targets. Freiermuth caught 60 receptions for 497 yards and seven touchdowns despite inconsistencies from Roethlisberger. Trubisky has a bigger arm and more mobility to create serious production opportunities for Freiermuth.
Tom Brady (QB) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s absurd to realize that Tom Brady is coming off of his most productive season as a passer. At 45 years old, the seven-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback continues to beat father time and flash his accuracy. It also helps that the Bucs reloaded their skilled players, signing slot receiver Russell Gage and veterans Julio Jones and Kyle Rudolph. Mike Evans and Brady are always a lock to hook up for 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns, while Chris Godwin is no longer practicing in a knee brace. Brady benefits from a pass-centric scheme with a slew of talent to target. Tristan Wirfs’ health is more important than usual due to the number of offensive line injuries that Tampa Bay has suffered this offseason. Dallas is a tough matchup for quarterbacks in fantasy but the 2021 season opener between these two teams resulted in a 31-29 shootout. Brady will be locked in and ready to win during this rematch in Arlington, Texas.
Sit ‘EM
Breece Hall (RB) New York Jets
There’s no doubting Breece Hall’s talent coming out of Iowa State. He’s accustomed to a massive workload running behind a mediocre offensive line and producing massive numbers. Unfortunately for Hall, he gets a tough matchup to start his NFL career against a stout Baltimore Ravens defense. The Ravens allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs (20.93) in 2021 and their secondary is even scarier with a healthy Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. Michael Carter is rumored to be the Jets’ RB1 heading into this Week 1 matchup at home, creating even fewer opportunities for Hall to produce. Don’t forget veteran quarterback Joe Flacco will be under center while Zach Wilson recovers from injury. There are too many red flags to feel confident rolling Hall into Week 1 lineups.
Jerry Jeudy (WR) Denver Broncos
It’s tempting to consider Jerry Jeudy in fantasy lineups during Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle on Monday Night Football. Courtland Sutton has been rumored to be Wilson’s favorite target during training camp and preseason, which creates concerns about Jeudy’s chemistry with a new quarterback. Jeudy was injured and started only five games in 2021 with poor quarterback play, which led to 38 receptions for 467 yards and zero touchdowns. His numbers will improve with Wilson under center but don’t be confident in a prolific passing attack. Remember, new head coach Nathaniel Hackett deployed a zone-running scheme with two dynamic running backs as the offensive coordinator in Green Bay. He now has Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III to utilize behind Russell Wilson. Jeudy could be game scripted out of fantasy relevance or get bullied by a tough Seattle secondary which allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (33.48) in 2021.
D.K. Metcalf (WR) Seattle Seahawks
Staying with Monday Night Football, there’s a lot of discomfort starting D.K. Metcalf in fantasy lineups. He’s a dominant wideout with quite a bit of talent in all facets of his game, but this doesn’t matter when Geno Smith is the starting quarterback. Could Smith prove me wrong and play a good game with the home crowd behind him? Maybe. It’s much more likely that the Seahawks and Broncos engage in old-school football with Rashaad Penny and Javonte Williams seeing 20-plus carries. Denver’s pass defense is no joke, as they surrendered the eighth-fewest fantasy points (32.21) to fantasy wide receivers in 2021. Metcalf could secure a touchdown but the offense will need to hold up against a much better defense. Smith’s arm talent also leaves a lot to be desired. Don’t disappoint yourself. Sit Metcalf and wait for a better matchup.
Zach Ertz (TE) Arizona Cardinals
Zach Ertz spent six weeks in Philadelphia before getting traded to the Arizona Cardinals. The 31-year-old tight end had several big performances, but Kyler Murray was absent for a couple of them due to injury. He could see hefty targets in Week 1 due to the lack of depth at wide receiver and running back for the Cardinals, however, the Chiefs were decent at defending tight ends in 2021. They ranked 16th but Ertz is a volatile player who cannot be relied on to score a touchdown to counter his lack of receiving yards. Ertz was held without a touchdown for six consecutive weeks to close last season and the Cardinals drafted Trey McBride as the first rookie tight end. Bench Ertz and pivot to a better tight-end matchup to obtain a higher floor.
Trey Lance (QB) San Francisco 49ers
49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan has been scrutinized quite a bit ever since he opted to trade up to select quarterback Trey Lance third overall during the 2021 NFL Draft. Lance has all of the tools to be an elite quarterback but he has only played one full season in the past three years, which came against FCS opponents at North Dakota State University. Lance has had moments in the league but his best game was against a bad Houston defense that was ready for the offseason. The conditions in Chicago could be wet and windy, creating an added layer of difficulty for Lance to overcome. The Bears’ defense has talent and acquired a new head coach, Matt Eberflus, who possesses a defensive background. Rookie defensive backs Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon were both selected in the second round, while Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn will be disruptors against a porous San Francisco offensive line. Bench Lance on the road against a good defense with the potential for bad weather.
