Buy Low Sell High Week 10 (The Playoff Push)

Fantasy Football Buy Low Sell High: Week 10 (The Playoff Push)

This week only sees four teams on Bye: the Bears, Bengals, Texans, and Giants. The combination of 4 teams on BYE and all the injuries have decimated so many teams. Let’s survive the Bye-tragedies together and make some trades to get a win this week, and throughout the rest of the season.

Now, it’s always helpful to have people give you some advice on players that should only rise in value or have hit their peak. As such, that’s why I’m here. I’m here to help guide you through the fantasy football season and decide who you should go try to trade for or trade away. So that way you can keep on winning and hopefully win a championship. Right now, you’re still assessing your team. Thus, you don’t want to react too quickly to veteran players who have had a rough start to the season. If they keep struggling past this week, it might be time to make some team-changing moves. That doesn’t mean you can’t take advantage of other people who want to get rid of them. Just FYI, the scoring is for PPR unless otherwise noted. FYI, all the stats come from our very own FantasyData. Here’s my opinion on who you should Buy Low/Sell High:

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Buy Low

Dak Prescott, Quarterback, Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott a buy-low? Say what? Well, for those that live in the world of recency bias, he is. Dak’s coming off an injury that caused him to miss a week and one of the worst performances this season where he barely got over the 20 point threshold. Of course, throwing for two TDs, one Int, and 232 yards is better than a lot of QBs, yet it’s not top-5 great. That’s what Dak is in fantasy, a top-5 QB. However, his recent performance/availability has dropped his price to that of a top-10 QB. This is the cheapest you will be able to get Dak for all season as his schedule is beautiful coming up. He faces the Falcons, Raiders, and Chiefs over the next three weeks. Talk about a jaw-dropping schedule that is sure to produce a ton of fantasy points for him. Additionally, his wide receivers, Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb are getting healthy which will allow him to connect on more targets with them. I still expect Dak to throw over 2,000 yards, 15 TDs, and perhaps even another 100 yards rushing on the ground through to the end of the season. IF you find yourself in need of an upgrade at QB, I’d go target the QB that has a passer rating of 109. Prescott’s 21.2 ppg average is great and something that you can fully trust to happen every week as you push for the playoffs. Go get some Dak in your life if you can. I’d sell Tanny or Burrow easily for Dak.

Deebo Samuel, Wide Receiver, San Francisco 49ers

How in the world could the WR4 overall in PPR be a buy-low? Well, the circumstances surrounding Deebo have changed by a lot the last couple weeks. George Kittle, the favorite target of Jimmy G has returned from IR. Last week against the Cardinals, Kittle finished as a top-3 TE and over 17 PPR points. Brandon Aiyuk has started to come of late as well by scoring his season-high in points last week too. Furthermore, Deebo has been battling a calf injury which as you know can affect his running. Despite that, Deebo hasn’t missed a game and only had a sorta slow game against the Cardinals, if you can call 5 receptions for 63 yards a slow day. Deebo’s on fire and is a threat to take the ball to the end-zone any time he touches it. He’s approaching or already has hit career highs via his statistics in only 8 games. His 49 receptions on 81 targets for 882 yards and 4 touchdowns would be better than most player’s entire seasons! So, if someone in your league is considering selling him. Pay up. He’s averaging 6+ receptions, 10 targets, and 110 yards per game. Say that with Kittle and AIyuk coming back that those numbers drop to 4.5, 8, and 90 respectively and sprinkle in a couple more TDs and Deebo’s per game average is still a great 16.5. He’s fast, solid hands, and knows how to get open, all traits you want in a great WR. If you can get Samuel for DJM, Woods, Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf, or Mike Evans, I’d do it. I trust Deebo.

Rashod Bateman, Wide Receiver, Baltimore Ravens

Mr. Batman is slowly becoming the most targeted WR on the Ravens. He’s gotten 20 targets over his first three games in the NFL which is helping Lamar throw the ball more than ever before. Over those three games, he has recorded 12 catches for 161 yards and no touchdowns. The TDs will come as he isn’t named Jakobi Meyers. Seriously Bill, how hard is it to get that dude a single TD. Anyways, Rashod was drafted by the Ravens to become the Alpha wideout for Lamar where they can give Brown the deep routes and allow him to use his speed. This means that Rashod’s going to be peppered with targets. Already, Bateman’s a solid flex player who should end the season as a high-end WR3 on a per-game basis. Over the last three weeks, he’s second in targets, has a 18.3% target share (which is good), and is averaging a very healthy 13.4 yards per reception (ypr). You want players who have a high target share and a deeper ypr since that gives you a much larger opportunity to hopefully get more fantasy points. A player who gets 5 catches 12 yards out gets you 11 PPR points whereas a player who gets you 5 catches at only 5 ypr earns you only 7.5 PPR points. In addition to that, the Ravens have a very solid schedule coming up with the Dolphins, Bears, Bengals, Packers, and Browns still to come. Trade a Manny Sanders, Tyler Boyd, Jakobi, Devonta Smith, or someone of that ilk for Batman.

Logan Thomas, Tight End, Washington Football Team

Logan’s an ultimate buy-low target for a team in need of a tight end. After missing most of the season due to injury so far, he’s insanely cheap. I’m talking like WR3/4 prices for a top-10 option at a highly miserable fantasy position. He got hurt in Week 4, but only recorded stats in the first 3 weeks. In those 3 games, he caught 12 passes for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s good for a tight end. Logan is Washington’s number 1 red-zone target. That’s big for your fantasy TE starter. We want those chances for touchdowns! Also, the Football Team is dealing with injuries to two of their other offensive skills players, Antonio Gibson and Curtis Samuel. This only helps Thomas get a larger target share from the get-go as he re-establishes his connection with QB Taylor Heinicke. If we assume he plays the rest of season, he’s on pace to finish the season with 48 receptions on 56 targets for 468 yards and 8 TDs. Wanna see something even better? The schedule of teams that Logan plays should make your mouth water for fantasy points. He faces the Eagles, Raiders, Cowboys, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and has no BYE left to go through. Each of those teams are top-10 in most points allowed to TEs. Go acquire Logan Thomas if you need a tight end Right Now!

Other Buy-Low Targets: Tyler Higbee (rising workload for TE), Jarvis Landry (sole custody of WR room w/out OBJ), and D’Andre Swift (safe receiving floor after the harsh game before bye)

Sell High

Joe Mixon, Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals

Alright, now I wouldn’t tell you to trade or sell high on the RB5 overall in fantasy without good reasons, would I? No, I’m not Chancellor Palpatine and I don’t manipulate you. If, and only IF, you can get the price you want for Mixon would I encourage you to sell him. I am not saying go trade him right now. I’m saying that his price is probably the highest it will be and we sell our player stocks at their highest point don’t forget. Additionally, there’s a few stats that do bring some worry to me besides the fact that he’s healthy right now. Well, first Joe Mixon is healthy right now and he’s never played an entire season before. I’ve been played before thinking that Mixon was going to finish the season healthy only to lose him to injury. To further that point, the Bengals seem to already be limiting his reps which is a bit worrisome. He’s played less than 70% snaps in 5 of his last 6 games. To add on to that, he’s averaging only 13 carries per game which means that he better be efficient with them. While he’s 4th in total rushing yards in the NFL, he’s been held to under 60 rushing yards in 3 of his last 5 games. That’s not something you want your running back to lacking in. While he’s been saved by scoring 7 touchdowns in his last 5 games, you can’t rely on that. He’s not James Conner after all, heh. I don’t want to have to rely or hope that my RB1 scores a TD in order to save his week every week. The Bengals are playing for the playoffs which means that they want their best players healthy the long-term which is good! However, it hurts your team as that means those players aren’t on the field as much. Plus, with the Bengals usually getting out to big leads lately, Mixon can just chill on the bench while his back-ups try to burn clock. Now, with that said, don’t just go sell Mixon for anything. After all, he’s still a top-5 back right now. However, if you can get Najee Harris, Nick Chubb (something small), Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, or someone like them, then go do it! Don’t wait for something to go wrong, be proactive!

Marquise Brown, Wide Receiver, Baltimore Ravens

Hollywood Brown has been quite magical this year as he is about to set career highs in only 10 weeks of a season. Of course, it helps that Lamar Jackson is throwing more than ever before. Despite the magical season so far, I think it’s unsustainable. As I said above with Bateman, Marquise is going to become the deep threat which is great when him and Lamar connect. However, he’s also become touchdown-reliant and is prone to a big let-down in terms of points. The WR6 overall has an overall stat-line of 46 receptions on 69 targets, with 682 yards and 6 touchdowns. Those would be great end-of-season numbers for many players. Despite that, upon taking a deeper look at his stats, I’ve found two big things. The majority of his production has come in 4 games, Weeks 2, 4-5, and 9. Over those 4 games, he had 28 catches on 37 targets for 445 yards, and 4 touchdowns. That means that in the other 4 starts, he only had 18 catches on 32 targets, with 237 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Those are decidedly not great numbers. To make matters worse, you cannot rely on a touchdown being caught. Thus, if we take away his touchdowns, he had 13.5 points or less in PPR scoring in 5 of the 8 weeks. That’s not what you want from your WR1. You want a guy that can still get you 18+ points and a touchdown is a cherry on top! It seems like Brown has been bailed out by touchdowns. Yes, they happened, but they aren’t reliable. Don’t forget that Bateman and Watkins, when he gets healthy, will eat into Brown’s targets which means that he HAS to catch all of his passes, which his current 66% catch rate doesn’t inspire. I would sell him off his first huge and legit game for multiple players that you can plug-in and start right away. He’s the WR6 overall, people will see his points and want him, if you can get multiple WR2s or a back-end WR1 and a WR3, I’d do it in a heartbeat.

James Conner, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals

James Conner, the RB1 in both fantasy and the desert of Arizona, just like everyone predicted. Right? Right? Well, I don’t know that anyone predicted Conner would have 11 touchdowns by the end of Week 9 or that he would be set up to be the main running back in a top-5 NFL offense for multiple weeks this late in the season. Nor did anyone predict he would be this healthy or score so many points. Last week against the 49ers, he recorded 96 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 77 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the NFL. No one predicted that. Yet, he has more fantasy points than Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, CMC, Saquon Barkley, and many more! Once again, no one thought this would happen, which is why his price is absolutely sky-high right now. Everyone wants a piece of this Cardinals offense, which is exactly why you should trade James Conner. I get it, you got him in like the 9th round, he’s “your guy,” and you can’t dream of trading him. Only you should. While I have full faith that Conner will be great over these next few weeks, I want someone with even more upside. James has a history of injury/under performances when he is the lead back. He’s averaging an “okay” 3.9 yards per rush. Now, don’t hurt your team by just trading James Conner for anything. He’s averaging 14.7 ppg but play off all this hype right now. If you can sell him for Chubb, Aaron Jones, Ezekial Elliot or someone like them then take the deal! If you can’t then just enjoy the Conner-Train!

Tim Patrick, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos

While Tim Patrick is super underrated in real life and in fantasy in general, it’s time to trade him. Last week, when the Broncos pulled off a shocker in destroying the Cowboys, he had a great game. Additionally, he got hurt and he played with a “still getting his legs under him” Jerry Jeudy and a missing Noah Fant. Both are back this week and for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, Patrick has been far too reliant on the deep ball and touchdowns. He doesn’t get enough targets to truly feel good about starting him. In 6 of his 9 games, he’s had 5 or fewer targets. That’s not a recipe for success. Not to mention that in every game he’s “gone off” has included a touchdown, and we find that he’s a poor man’s Marquise Brown. Additionally, he still has to go through his Bye week which is a bad thing for your team. There’s way more safer players than Patrick and you should sell him for a more reliable WR3 that won’t require a touchdown or still have to through his Bye Week. Look for guys like Renfrow, Bateman, AB, or Tee Higgins. If you can get one of these guys or someone similar, Pull the Trigger! You’ll find that they are much more reliable and provide a higher reward in the end. Finally, they will help you in your playoff push as they don’t have any weeks they are required to miss. Also, whose bright idea was it to put teams on Bye in Week 14! WHY?!

Other Sell-High Targets: Evan Engram (finally had a good game), Jordan Howard (unsustainable), and Melvin Gordon III (this is Javonte’s backfield now)

As always, I’m more than happy to talk on Twitter and Discord. Let me know your thoughts on these players if you managed to trade for/away from them. If you need thoughts on any trade, my DMs are open 18/7. I respond to everyone. Hope you win your week this week. Let’s have a successful fantasy football season this year. We are about to be two weeks into our Championship winning season! Let’s go win Week 5!

Of course,

May the Force be with You…