NBA DFS Picks
Every Wednesday, I’ll be diving into a loaded NBA schedule to find you some legitimate difference-makers for the DraftKings main slate — with the help of our NBA Advanced Metrics, NBA Optimizer, and NBA DraftKings Projections pages.
What you’ll see when you come to this weekly column are our four favorite values of the night. Whether that’s an All-Star that is priced too low and is bound to explode or an absolute bargain that is capable of supporting your high-scoring studs, this is where you’ll want to look before submitting your lineups.
If you read this story last week, you likely came away with a couple of decent values in your lineups. Michael Porter Jr., who was priced at only $6,100, had 12 points, 11 rebounds and a steal on what was ultimately an off-shooting night for him. Meanwhile, Eric Bledsoe filled the stat sheet with six points, seven assists, two rebounds, a block and a steal for only $4,400.
With that said, here are four guys we like in the loaded 13-game slate for November 10, which has the Detroit Pistons facing the Houston Rockets — a matchup between Jalen Green and Cade Cunningham, the top two picks in the 2021 NBA Draft — and the Miami Heat taking on the Los Angeles Lakers on national television.
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Kyle Anderson, Memphis Grizzlies (vs. Charlotte Hornets) – $4,400
Kyle Anderson is third in our rankings of projected fantasy points per $1,000 in tonight’s slate and he’s somebody that comes up in almost any lineup you try to make in our NBA Optimizer. Anderson had 36.25 fantasy points in an overtime win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last game and there isn’t much keeping him from putting up another 30-point fantasy performance against the Hornets.
Tonight’s meeting between Memphis and Charlotte has the highest total of any game on the board, so there should be a lot of points scored in this one. That makes Anderson a tough player to ignore, as he’s a good bet to play at least 25 minutes and the Grizzlies are going to get him plenty of touches.
Not only is Anderson shooting a career-high 45.8 percent from the outside, but he’s also playing a Hornets team that is last in the league in defensive rating. The Hornets are also giving up 14.6 made threes per game, and that’s a higher number than 28 other teams. With that in mind, Anderson should get a few clean looks from behind the three-point line in this game and he has shown he is more than capable of burying them. He’s also the type to chip in, in a number of different ways.
Ricky Rubio, Cleveland Cavaliers (vs. Washington Wizards) – $5,200
Ricky Rubio went absolutely nuclear against the New York Knicks last game, finishing with 61.25 fantasy points in a game in which he had 37 points and 10 assists. Rubio was 8 for 9 from the outside and just shot the ball absurdly well — especially considering his jumper is his biggest weakness. There’s a good chance Rubio doesn’t score 30 points in a game the rest of the season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a big-time asset in daily fantasy.
With Collin Sexton out, look for Cleveland to go to more lineups with two points guards, with Rubio playing next to Darius Garland. Garland is a very good shooter and scorer, so the Cavaliers can let Rubio run the offense a little more and put Garland off the ball a bit. That will allow Rubio to continue to stuff the stat sheet, which is something he has done throughout his entire career.
The veteran is 13th in our rankings of projected fantasy points per $1,000 and should be in your lineups in this one. Rubio is very likely in for 30 or so minutes here and that makes him a must-play.
Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks (vs. New York Knicks) – $6,500
Jrue Holiday faced this Knicks team earlier in the month, but it was his first time playing in about two weeks. Milwaukee only gave Holiday 20 minutes in that game, and the two-way stud only had 17.5 fantasy points in that one. Since then, things have started to normalize a bit for Holiday, who has played 30.5 minutes per game over the last two contests. In those games, Holiday averaged 30.5 fantasy points per game.
With Holiday beginning to look more comfortable, look for him to really take advantage of this meeting with the Knicks. New York Is giving up more made threes per game than anybody in basketball this year, and the Knicks don’t have many guards that pride themselves on their defensive ability. Kemba Walker, Derrick Rose, and Immanuel Quickley are all defenders that struggle at the point of attack, so Holiday should be able to get by them and get a couple of easy buckets at the rim. However, he should also be able to take advantage of any open looks he gets from deep.
Overall, there might not be a better value on the board than Holiday. There are 27 players listed in front of Holiday at the point guard position tonight, but there’s a good chance he turns in top-10 production at the position.
Duncan Robinson, Miami Heat (vs. Los Angeles Lakers) – $3,700
Duncan Robinson has to be hitting his threes in order to provide value, meaning there is risk involved when taking him. However, Robinson is averaging 28.2 minutes per game this season and is shooting 8.5 threes per game. He’s also hitting only 34.1 percent of those shots, despite being a career 41.7 from deep. That means that he’s due for some positive regression, and we started to see that in a 4-of-8 performance against the Utah Jazz last game.
Look for the 27-year-old to get it going once again against the Lakers, who are giving up more threes per game than all but eight teams in the league. If he can knock down a few triples, that would be huge for those bold enough to play him in daily fantasy. Robinson has had at least 20 fantasy points in six of Miami’s 10 games this year and he would be providing tremendous value if he reaches that mark here.
Don’t be afraid to fire him up if you’re looking for somebody under $4,000. If you’re playing a high-priced superstar, you’ll likely need a high-floor option like Robinson.
