Buy Low/Sell High: Week 4
Well, folks, we made it to Week 4 of the 2021 NFL Season. Weeks 1-3 showcased a lot of important factors to consider for your fantasy team. It’s been a dreadful and confusing past couple of weeks for a ton of players. On the other hand, some players rode the first few weeks to perhaps the peak of their fantasy point season. Now, be sure to exercise caution if your team didn’t score a bunch in the first few weeks. Don’t make knee-jerk reactions. After all, it has only been one week. Although your team might have scored awful, your players might be primed for bounce-back weeks. The last thing you would want is to sell players who score a ton after you trade them. Additionally, you might have guys who scored a ton in the first few weeks but don’t have the circumstances week-in and week-out to continue that high scoring. Whether your team has been beset by injuries or is the picture of health, you should be always trying to improve your team. It’s time to make the beginning push towards your championship.
Waivers are always a huge part. A lot of people want to pick up the “next best player” after only a few weeks of performance. This will encourage teams to sell other players who didn’t do too well to either make room on their team or because they think this new player, they got will be better. This’ll allow you to buy low on big names and get your team built for the long haul. On the other hand, if you have a player that flashed, you can sell high to capitalize on the hype of this player. You can get players in return you never would’ve dreamt of in return. That’s the key to making your team successful over a long season. In fact, this year will be the longest in NFL history due to it being 17 games. If you never have bought or participated in the stock market, this is a good practice run. You buy stocks (players) when they are at their lowest price. That way, you only increase your monetary value and improve your net worth (how good your team is). If you, do it right, you can “win” a lot (win a championship).
On the other hand, you want to predict when the stocks (players) are at their peak price (trade value). That’s because you want the most return you can get for your investment (player). That way you can ensure your team is always heading towards its peak throughout the season. You want your guys to peak to come playoff time. You want to win a championship. Of course, scoring a bunch early on is fun. Yet, if you can trade the high-risk guys who blew up one week and turn them into steady high-performing contributors’ week-in, week-out, do it. That’s how you win championships. You play the fantasy football market.
Now, it’s always helpful to have people give you some advice on players that should only rise in value or have hit their peak. As such, that’s why I’m here. I’m here to help guide you through the fantasy football season and decide who you should go try to trade for or trade away. So that way you can keep on winning and hopefully win a championship. Right now, you’re still assessing your team. Thus, you don’t want to react too quickly to veteran players who have had a rough start to the season. If they keep struggling past this week, it might be time to make some team-changing moves. That doesn’t mean you can’t take advantage of other people who want to get rid of them. Just FYI, the scoring is for PPR unless otherwise noted. FYI, all the stats come from our very own Fantasy Data. Here’s my opinion on who you should Buy Low/Sell High:
Quick Links
Buy Low:
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams, Wide Receiver
I’m pretty sure I saw Robert Woods’ picture on a milk carton the other day. In fact, I’m positive. The Rams have forgotten about their great wide receiver. Matthew Stafford has turned Cooper Kupp into a Prince and Robert Woods into the black sheep of fantasy football for reasons unknown. Hold faith in the fact that the Rams and Sean McVay know how to use their WR. They know how to get him touches, and when teams start to scheme to prevent Kupp from massacring their defenses, Woods will blow up. Woods is due for some positive regression. It’s going to happen too, and when it does, you know that you’ll want him on your team.
Woods’ target share is 24.6% currently. That’s really good for a wide receiver. Wood’s touch% is 10% this year whereas last year, it was 11%. Kupp’s is 16% this year and 10% last year. Kupp’s just getting way more touches this year than any year before. Woods is still doing the same thing and getting roughly the same share. He’s on the field for 88% of the offensive snaps. Woods had 5 receptions for 64 yards last week. I expect that number to continue to grow as Stafford grows more comfortable with Woods. This might be your last shot to buy Woods before his price and stats explode. Once again, buy your player stocks cheap, and sell high! Robert’s going to grow more in this offense this year and it begins next week against the Arizona Cardinals and their makeshift cornerbacks. Then, he has Seattle, Giants, Lions, Texans, and Titans after the Cards. What a massive string of easy games for the WR2 in the high-potent Rams Offense. Go get Woods now!
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears, Wide Receiver
They just need to give Fields/Dalton some time to be able to do so. That’s a tough task apparently. On the contrary, they have a rather nice schedule coming up against the Lions, Raiders, Packers, Bucs, 49ers, and Steelers. The Bears will get right and Allen will go back to being a routine WR2 with the upside of WR1. Allen’s a huge buy-low that you can get for a big discount off his draft price. Why not take the risk, he’s got way more upside than anyone else on your bench right now. Actually, he just might win a championship as Fields development grows and Arob faces the Vikings, Seahawks, and Giants in the fantasy football playoffs. Buy your player stocks, cheap people!
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts, Running Back
Taylor has gotten off to a massively slow start compared to where he was drafted. If you drafted him in the first round, I don’t blame you for wanting to cut bait on him and trade him for what you can get. However, if you have him, HOLD. If you’re in a league with an owner who is trying to sell JT, go buy him right now. In case you haven’t noticed, the entire Colts offense is getting off to a slow start with growing pains with Carson Wentz while he recovers from double-sprained ankles. Plus, for whatever reason, Coach Reich is playing Nyheim Hines a ton right now. That’s most likely due to the Colts being behind in games and having to play catch-up. That kind of game script is what favors Hines. He’ll get the passing work and third-down work in order to take advantage of his receiving ability. Yet, don’t take that as sell-low on JT. No, no, no. Here, let’s dive into some stats as to why JT will blow up soon, and why you should get him.
JT is playing on average 50% of the snaps per game, even with the Colts being behind often. Last year, he was playing on average, 52% of the snaps with a better Colts team. So, he’s still getting roughly the same touches. He’s played two elite rush defenses in the Rams and Titans. That helps explains why he isn’t getting touchdowns. He’s only 1.4 points per game behind Hines. Hines has played in the league longer and proven he’s not a feature back. He’s a great passing back, but that’s it. Hence, why through three games, Taylor has gotten 42 rushes to Hines’ 16. Now, it doesn’t help that Wentz is hurt and that the O-line is hurt too. They will get healthier though. When that happens, defenses won’t be loading the box to prevent Taylor’s rushes. Yet, even with loaded boxes, just look at how many runs he had last week over five yards. That’s pretty good. They will continue to grow as the offense gels and gets healthy. One last fun tidbit, Hines has 12 receptions on the year, Taylor has 8. Taylor’s passing work is growing. Take advantage of those who haven’t noticed that Taylor is about to explode and buy that stock on the cheap. Then, reap the rewards as it booms. It could start this week against Miami who has given up the 2nd-most fantasy points to running backs so far this year. Go Get JT!
Jonathan Taylor with the big run!#ForTheShoe#INDvsTEN#Titans
📺 via #NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/d8W3YsPCLe— Chris Shepherd (@NFLscheme) September 26, 2021
Other Buy Low Candidates: David Montgomery, Antonio Gibson, Julio Jones, Ryan Tannehill, and Tyreek Hill
Sell High:
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers, Running Back
Get me off the 49ers Merry-Go-Round! I don’t want to ride this spinning roller coaster anymore! The 49ers’ backfield is filled with confusion and injuries. First, Trey Sermon wasn’t good enough to play in Week 1. Then, in Week 2, three running backs for the 49ers got hurt. Only one of them, Sermon, was able to play in the 49ers Sunday night game. His performance in Sunday’s game left a lot to be desired as he only had 10 rushes for 31 yards and a touchdown, plus he had 2 receptions for 3 yards. People are still really high on Sermon, if only because he’s in the 49ers system where Kyle Shannahan can make even the worst running back look great. That’s why people are still willing to trade for him. I’d much rather be starting nearly any other running back than Sermon in redraft as he isn’t proven, Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson will be coming back from injuries sooner than later, and this backfield will be beyond confusing when they do. Shanny still doesn’t trust Sermon, and due to that, I’d sell him for whatever I can get. Get a player who will consistently do well or put up the same range of points every week. The final point, Sermon only saw 41 snaps last week, whereas Kyle “Juice”, the fullback, saw 48. That’s right, Coach Shanny played their fullback more than his running back. Get off the Sermon train.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos, Running Back
Melvin Gordon has had a rather good start to the season. Of course, you could say the same thing about the entire Broncos team. Yet, are they for real in their record and play so far? Well, it’s true that the three teams the Broncos have faced so far, Giants, Jets, and Jaguars are 0-9 combined this year. It’s also true that Denver had to win those games if they had any shot of doing anything special this year. Gordon’s scored two touchdowns so far through three games. That makes fantasy owners quite happy. However, is MG3 truly doing that great at rushing the football? His receiving work isn’t keeping him afloat at all in fantasy as he only has 6 receptions for 76 yards across three games. So, his rushing yardage must be what is helping him excel and be the RB13 overall in PPR scoring. Actually, that’s only partially true. Gordon’s 70-yard touchdown run in Week 1 is what is helping keep him afloat. He’s averaging 4.6 yards per rush so far this season with 192 total rushing yards. However, if we subtract that massive 70-yard touchdown run, it falls to 122 total rushing yards. That makes his yards per carry average sit at an awful 2.96 yards. Therefore, MG3 is actually not having a great season at all. He’s had easy matchups and scored a massive touchdown that’s helping keep him afloat so far. The bottom is going to fall out though, especially with the Broncos wanting to play their rookie back, Javonte Williams. MG3 now faces 5 tough rush defenses in Baltimore, Vegas, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Washington. Get rid of MG3 while you still can. Don’t get caught holding the deflating stock. In fact, just look at his next-gen stats to see how few rushes he got past 5 yards. Ouch. It won’t be long until Javonte takes the lead role over in the backfield.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans, Wide Receiver
Talk about one of the biggest surprises in fantasy football this year and many will list Brandin Cooks as their #1 surprise. Yes, we all knew he was going to be targeted a ton on a team that was going to be forced to pass a lot if it wanted to win any games this year. Cooks is currently WR6 in PPR scoring. His massive reception count is buoying him in fantasy. I’m certain that no one was expecting him to be doing this well through three weeks. Now, with him doing so well, you might be wondering why I’m telling you to trade him. Well, there’s a few reasons, and they are his health, schedule, and QB play. Cooks has a history of having to deal with concussions and has missed at least one game in his season in every year of his career except for 2018. I just don’t trust Cooks to remain healthy for the entire season, especially one that is the longest in NFL history. Secondly, he has had some rather easy matchups so far by facing the Panthers, Jaguars, and Browns. Now, he faces the Bills, Patriots, Rams, and Dolphins in 4 of his next 5 games. 4 of those teams are in the top-10 for least fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. With talented covers covering him and working to shut him down, it’s going to be hard for Cooks to keep up this high level of play. Brandin’s not dropped a pass yet either which helps pad those stat totals. He’s a great WR2/3 for your fantasy team, but if you can sell him as a WR1 due to how he’s been playing so far, I definitely would. There’s no guarantee his stock or play goes higher, why not see what you can get and perhaps improve your team ever more than just having Cooks. I’d much rather have a player who has a trustworthy QB than Davis Mills, who is still very much considered a raw talent. Cooks will continue to do good, but not to the point he’s done so far. Grab some players in exchange for Cooks and watch them help your team win a championship compared to Cooks falling off in the next few weeks or so.
Other Sell High Candidates: Damien Harris, James Robinson, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans, and Zack Moss
As always, I’m more than happy to talk on Twitter and Discord. Let me know your thoughts on these players if you managed to trade for/away from them. If you need thoughts on any trade, my DMs are open 18/7. I respond to everyone. Hope you win your week this week. Let’s have a successful fantasy football season this year. We are about to be two weeks into our Championship winning season!
Of course,
May the Force be with You…
