Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour heads from Tulsa, Oklahoma, to Fort Worth, Texas, for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge – an event that has been tightly associated with Colonial Country Club – this will be the 77th year the track has played host. We only have 120 players competing this week, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 will get to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend.
There’s $8.4M on the line this week, the winner takes home $1.512M and also pulls down 500 FedEx Cup points. Colonial Country Club is 7,209 yards in length, is a par 70, and the small greens are bentgrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -13.6, so it’s a fairly challenging track with a cut line that’s often at par or over par. Place bets on golfers who are great bentgrass putters, who are solid on approach from all sorts of distances, who are accurate off the tee blocks, who gain a lot of strokes total, and who are solid tee to green.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the Charles Schwab Challenge this week:
1. Which ten players have the most top 10’s here over the last five years? The biggest Colonial beasts over the last half-decade are Jordan Spieth with 4, Jason Kokrak with 2, Kevin Na with 2, Brian Harman with 2, Justin Rose with 2, and Emiliano Grillo also with 2.
2. Which ten players have gained the most strokes on approach over the last 24 rounds? The approach is such a huge factor this week from all distances, the best ones over the last 24 rounds are Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Harold Varner III, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Chris Kirk, Mito Pereira, Kevin Na, and Sam Burns.
3. Who are the five best outright betting values this week? If you’re looking for outright betting value, look to Brian Stuard, Kevin Streelman, J.J. Spaun, Sungjae Im, and Kevin Kisner.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Jordan Spieth (+1200) – Spieth dominates play on his native Texan soil, especially at this course where he has seven top 10’s since 2013 including a win, two T2’s, and a 2nd. Putting is the most important key stat this week and he has absolutely crushed it on the greens here, along with doing everything else really well too for the most part. He won three starts ago, had a 2nd two starts ago, and would have finished a lot higher than T34 last week at the PGA Championship had he not lost 3.24 with the flat stick. You can bet him to win, finish top 5, and top 10, and likely win at least two of those bets.
Justin Thomas (+800) – He had a huge comeback win at the PGA Championship last week, and it’s hard to say what we will see out of JT this week, but I expect more of the same with solid ball-striking, and his putting has been strong lately and should continue. He has lots of top 10’s this season already, and I expect another one this week – bet him as aggressively as you’d like to.
Avoid: Scottie Scheffler (+1000) – It’s hard to fade the top-ranked player in the world, but Scheffler missed the cut last week and he also missed the cut here last year, as well. He could easily win this week, but I’m willing to sit him out and see how he responds. He won’t be on my bench for long as he’s solid in every stat category, but will give him a breather this time out.
+2600 to +5000
Abraham Ancer (+4000) – I want putters on my betting card this week, and Ancer is one of the best on the PGA Tour, so count me in. He has back-to-back T14’s here and is coming off a 9th last week thanks to gaining 7.32 strokes ball-striking and 3.87 with his putter, so it all seems to be coming up Abraham right now. I think a top 10 or a top 20 wager makes too much sense this week for the talented Mexican-born golfer.
Davis Riley (+5000) – What a huge stretch of success he’s experiencing right now with a 2nd, a 4th, a 5th, a T9, and a 13th over his last seven starts including the Zurich Classic. He gained an insane 11.87 ball-striking last week and should be full of confidence this week as a result. Much like Ancer above, betting Riley to finish top 10 or top 20 this week is A-OK with me as his hot streak should continue given his breakout ball-striking performance last week, plus he’s a pretty good putter also.
Avoid: Webb Simpson (+4000) – Simpson used to be such an amazing putter, but that talent seems to be off now as he has lost strokes in the stat category in five out of his last six starts. He has been either boom or bust at this tournament with four missed cuts in six starts since 2009, a T3, and a 5th – I’ll go with a bust week this week, but it could end up being the opposite, we’ll see.
+5100 to +10000
Brian Harman (+6500) – He’s one of the best performing players at Colonial with eight straight top 31’s and three of those have gone for top 10’s. His stats here look quite impressive, and I see no reason why he won’t put up another good finish this week, especially since he has five top 35’s in his last six starts including a T5 and a T9. I think you can bet him to finish top 10, top 20, or top 30 depending on how bullish you are on Harman this week.
Justin Rose (+6500) – Rose has three top 20’s here in the last four years including winning in 2018 and finishing T3 in 2020. He has two straight top 15’s including last week’s 13th where he performed quite well on the greens and on approach, the perfect recipe for success on any golf course. I think betting him to finish top 20 is the way to go this week, but you could inch into top 10 territory if you like what the Englishman is cooking.
Avoid: Kevin Kisner (+8000) – The 2017 champ doesn’t have a top 25 here since, he’s coming off two straight missed cuts and has failed to play weekend golf in three out of his last four starts, as well. He might make me look silly on Sunday with a strong finish, but I’m bearish on Kisner for this week.
+11000 and higher
Rory Sabbatini (+15000) – It was a tad challenging to figure out which players to go with in this range, but I landed on Sabbatini for one of my picks as his odds are high and he has fared quite well at this event with four top 20’s here over the last five years including a T6 three years ago. He’s coming off a T25 at the Byron Nelson where he gained 4.38 on approach, and I believe we will see him do something similar again this week. I like him as a top 20 or a top 30 bet this week, bet him accordingly.
David Lipsky (+18000) – Lipsky has really found his stride lately with three top 7’s in his last six starts counting the Zurich Classic, and I really like looking at his stat line from the Mexico Open where he finished T6 thanks to gaining 9.99 strokes on approach and 11.76 ball-striking. It’s hard to know how to bet him this week, but you can do a top 10, top 20, or top 30 wager depending on how you see David’s week panning out.
Avoid: Denny McCarthy (+13000) – He’s one of the best putters in the world, so he should fare well at Colonial, right? Well, McCarthy hasn’t with two missed cuts over the last three years and his best finish is 66th. His putting has been decent, but he has lost over 14 strokes ball-striking between the three years, so that will kill you almost every time. He has also lost strokes ball-striking in 10 of his last 11 measured events, so he doesn’t have any appeal to me at the moment.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
