Dallas Cowboys 2022 Forecast
The Cowboys season didn’t end the way that many thought it would. Many like myself, were hoping for a deeper run into the postseason after watching the team finish 12-5 on the season while laying the smackdown on the entire NFC East at 6-0. While there are fans quick to label the season a “failure” (and honestly, they aren’t far off from that), there are still some positive takeaways that put Dallas in a favorable light for the future.
Dak Prescott’s return was surely one of the major pieces that had the Cowboys’ offense looking good for most of the 2021 season. Prescott did have his ups and downs during the season too but we saw other quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes struggle as well. The Cowboys’ offense was still one of the best units in football over the course of the season finishing 1st in both total yards and points scored. Prescott finished as a top 10 quarterback in 2021 even with his struggles, finishing inside the top 10 in most categories like passer rate (3rd), completion percentage (4th), passing yards (7th), and touchdowns (5th).
The defense which was “historically bad” in 2020, bounced back and finished inside the top 10 in 2021. Now I know what you’re thinking, “Will, the Cowboys got kicked out of the first round of the playoffs! That’s unacceptable!”, and I get it. I wasn’t too happy about it either when the Cowboys let the 49ers control the game through the run and let Jimmy Garropolo take credit for a victory that had nothing to do with him (again). This game is what will stick with fans (and media pundits alike) the most. Prescott and the Cowboys’ subpar performance in the playoffs is a glaring reminder that though the Cowboys are closer, they still have some work to do this offseason.
But how do the Cowboys take the next step?
There are a few key areas that the Cowboys can improve this offseason and it shouldn’t be too much trouble for them to make the moves needed to improve the team ahead of the 2022 season. I have a couple of things I think the Cowboys can do to improve the team for next season without overthinking it.
Stop “Cappin”
With recent reports indicating that the Cowboys are looking to move on from Amari Cooper and Demarcus Lawerence due to salary cap concerns, let’s start in this area. ESPN’s NFL Insider Adam Schefter tweeted that the Cowboys are “likely” to release their number one wide receiver prior to the start of the new league year. Cooper is slated to make $20 million in 2022 and there are considerable savings if the Cowboys decide to move on from the man that they traded a first-round pick for back in 2018.
Cowboys are “likely” to release WR Amari Copper by the start of the new league year, per league sources.
Cooper is due $20 million in fully guaranteed money on the fifth day of the new league year, March 20.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 4, 2022
The Joneses, particularly Stephen Jones, like to use the excuse that their high-paid players are taking up too much of the salary cap which hampers the moves that they can make in free agency or other areas to help the team be placed in a better position to win. Mind you, this is coming from the very front office that will flip to the other side about paying “homegrown talent” when it comes to their continued refusal to get involved in paying players in free agency.
Stephen Jones did this very thing not too long ago:
Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones talking about the salary cap on @SiriusXMNFL: pic.twitter.com/LIKKW4fDJl
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) February 4, 2022
In terms of keeping Cooper, it would make more sense to keep him on the team as opposed to moving on from him. The Cowboys would get $16 million from cutting Cooper ahead of the 2022 season BUT they would save $12.7 million against the cap with a simple restructure of his contract. We know that the Cowboys are currently are $21 million over the salary cap per Spotrac.com but with a few moves, the Cowboys could free up as much as $49 million in cap space with a maximum of $66+ million.
According to this chart, the #DallasCowboys can go from where they currently are — $24 million over the cap — to $49 million under the cap with simple restructures, and as much as $66 million under the cap with maximum restructures… https://t.co/OD2PcFbxO7
— Pat Doney (@PatDoneyNBC5) February 15, 2022
Not only would you avoid creating a mess on the offensive side of the ball by moving on from Cooper but you would keep the passing game intact at the wide receiver position. I mean let’s be honest, you move on from Amari Cooper and then do what? That leaves you with just CeeDee Lamb under contract as the rest of the Cowboys wide receivers are heading to free agency and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be able to bring them all back. Do you think the Cowboys are going to pay more for one of the free-agent wide receivers like Davante Adams or Chris Godwin? History says no. So what are they going to do with all that saved cap space? Lord only knows.
Amari Cooper is just one of the players that need (or doesn’t if you’re smart) to be addressed. Demarcus Lawerence is also another player that has been rumored to be released from the team because of salary cap issues. As previously stated, we know that the cap isn’t the biggest issue. Lawrence does have a habit of missing time due to injury but when he’s on the field he’s still producing at a high level. Not only that but you now would finally have your bookend rushers with Law and Randy Gregory on both sides of the defensive line. Why would you want to mess that up now?
If you did have to choose between either letting Amari Cooper or Demarcus Lawerence go this coming season, I would have to go with Lawerence. Earmarking Lawerence as a post-June 1st cut would free up $19 million in cap space.
NFL Salary Cap Data Provided By: Spotrac.com
Upgrade The O-Line
There are other personnel needs that should take more priority. The offensive line is one of the more glaring issues. Conner Williams at left guard hasn’t been working to the level that it needed. Williams was one of the most penalized offensive linemen during the 2021 season and he’s likely gone in free agency. Conner McGovern was average at best as a backup but will more than likely retain that level of role with the team which means you now have a hole that needs to be filled.
The center position should be next on the Cowboys’ “to do” list. Tyler Biadiaz in my opinion wasn’t great but that doesn’t mean he can’t be saved. Maybe upgrading the talent at left guard can help him out. Or you can move on from Tyler Biadiaz altogether and use the 2022 NFL Draft to address the offensive line as a whole. Remember, the Cowboys did the opposite just last offseason, using their first six picks to address the defense. That could be a feasible strategy to consider as Tyron Smith, the Cowboys’ left tackle, is another position that should be addressed sooner rather than later.
Smith in particular is still playing at a high enough level where you may be able to get another year or two out of him. Per Pro Football Focus, Smith gave up just two sacks on the season in 2021 and was graded out at 91.4. Smith will be 32 in 2021 on top of that. As most may already know, it’s not about Smith’s talent that has the Cowboys front office and fans worried, it’s his availability. Smith has missed time in each of the last three seasons alone, totaling 23 missed games over that span.
If the Cowboys want to continue to dominate in the division and beyond, addressing the O-line should be on the table as we get deeper into the offseason and ahead of the draft.
Coaches Have To Step Up
Depending on who you talk to this might be one of the biggest issues that need to be addressed this offseason and if you have been paying attention to the stories, most fans weren’t happy that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore returned to the team after not getting a head coaching job after being touted as one of the hot names to get a gig. Now I won’t go as far as to say Dallas should have moved on from Moore. There simply aren’t a ton of young, talented minds in the NFL calling offenses. If there were, the Chicago Bears would have done a lot better with their team than what was shown during the season, for example.
Moore has called the Cowboys offense since 2019 after Scott Linehan was fired from the team. Moore still had to deal with then-head coach Jason Garrett sticking his hands in the proverbial cookie jar at different points during the season as well. Mike McCarthy once he was hired, opted to take a more “hands-off” approach allowing Moore complete control of the offensive playcalling. While I get his point of view in wanting to keep the relationship going between Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore, McCarthy should have at least offered more input in helping Moore further develop as an offensive coordinator.
And Kellen Moore has to be able to consistently put the players in better positions.
According to The Sporting News, the Cowboys’ offense was better over the first seven games of the season before Dak Prescott’s calf injury as opposed to when he returned to the lineup. Per the report, the Cowboys’ offense averaged 454.9 yards of total offense per game before Prescott went down. Upon his return to the offense, the Cowboys’ total offense would drop to 351.4 yards per game. On top of that, the Cowboys refused to get the ball to their big-time player makers like Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, for example, and continued to attempt to rely on a running game that was headed by an injured Ezekiel Elliott while refusing to give backup running back Tony Pollard more attempts to ease the burden.
Overall, the Cowboys don’t have too many issues inside the star that they can’t still be a prominent force in the NFC conference next season. The offense and defense ranked inside the top 10 on both sides of the ball in the 2021 season and the rest of the NFC East is looking to rebuild back into a more competitive space. The Cowboys have their core ready for the 2022 season but if they don’t make some tweaks in the way they coach and play more disciplined, it’s going to be a long season.
