Will Russell Wilson be the Seahawks QB in 2022?

Russell Wilson Trade Rumors

Trade rumors are as much an ingrained part of the NFL offseason as free agency and the NFL draft. Every year, rumors swirl about certain players being shipped off to new teams for either a package of draft picks or already-established NFL players (or both). As a consumer and a fan of both the NFL and fantasy football, these annual speculations are fun and entertaining. Trade speculation provides more scenarios to consider when looking ahead to the next season. The magnitude of the would-be transactions varies depending on the impact of said player.

For the second time in as many years, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is the subject of offseason trade rumors. Trade rumors surfaced last year about Wilson no longer being happy in Seattle. The team’s decision-making with the offensive line and the overall protection during Wilson’s tenure has cited a reason. Speculation ensued at that time about potential trade partners and trade packages, including chatter that a Wilson trade might occur during the 2021 NFL Draft. How close this ended up being to reality is unknown, but the early 2022 offseason has facilitated a continuation of similar discussions.

Wilson had a down season in 2021. He missed the first games of his career due to injury and his passing and rushing volume was down across his 14 active games.

If you look at the Seahawks as a team, the offense was inefficient. Of course, Wilson’s play is an integral part of the efficiency of the offense. But the combination of questionable play-calling, Wilson racing back from his finger injury too quickly, and a defense that had trouble getting off the field, Wilson’s per-game volume took a hit.

Wilson’s numbers in some peripheral and non-volume-based metrics did show a positive trend, including yards/attempt, TD/Int ratio, and sacks/game.

Wilson is still going to command a massive price in a potential trade. This isn’t fantasy football. No team will be able to “buy low” after one subpar season. Keep in mind Wilson threw for 4,000+ yards and 40 TDs in 2020. Before we get into the likelihood of a move and potential trade partners, let’s look at Wilson’s current situation with the Seahawks.

Existing Contract and Salary Cap

Wilson signed a four-year, $140 million contract extension in 2019, which extended the four-year, $87.6 million contract he signed in 2015. If nothing changes, Wilson is set to hit free agency as an unrestricted free agent (UFA) in 2024. The Seahawks are in a decent salary cap situation, currently projected to have $34.8 million of cap space according to overthecap.com. While significant, Wilson’s 2022 cap hit of $37 million is not the obstacle it could be with less cap space. But that number is important when looking at potential teams making a play for the nine-time Pro Bowler, as any deal would include the new team taking on Wilson’s current contract.

The $34.8 million in cap space is a snapshot projection based on existing salaries before free agency and a projected 2022 salary cap of $208.2 million (overthecap.com). Cap space is fluid and should be viewed only as a reference point during the various stages of the offseason. The Seahawks have other questions in need of answers that will impact that number, including re-signing free agent RB Rashaad Penny or extending LB Bobby Wagner. Wagner is entering a contract year, set to be a free agent in 2023. Teams also have the option of releasing players still under contract to free up short-term cap space. For instance, if the Seahawks were to outright release Wagner (currently a $20.35 million cap hit) before June 1, the “dead money” (cap hit after a player’s release) would only be $3.75, saving them $16.6 million in cap space. Wagner earned his guaranteed money during the first three years of his current four-year contract, so with no guaranteed money in 2022, this option is likely at least being discussed by the Seahawks front office, however unlikely it is to happen. A more likely outcome is a contract extension for Wagner that moves a portion of his 2022 cap hit across future seasons.

No Trade Clause

Wilson’s contract includes a no-trade clause, meaning Wilson would have to waive the clause and approve the new team. Which teams meet this prerequisite? At this speculative stage of the process, teams for which approval would be granted are based mostly on here say. Last year, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported four teams that Wilson would have approved: Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, and the New Orleans Saints. Currently, the list of teams I’ve seen as being in the running has fluctuated. We are guessing at this point. Later I’ll look closer at some of these teams, but the crucial takeaway from this piece of the contract is the leverage it affords Wilson and the Seahawks.

Trade Parameters

There are five general factors to focus on when speculating about a team’s interest and ability to trade for a QB of Wilson’s caliber.

1. The need for a QB. This seems obvious but in the world of off-season speculation, it needs to be mentioned. Plus, it can facilitate discussions about teams whose view of their current QB situation may differ from that of the general public, such as Carson Wentz in Indianapolis. Also, there is a difference between looking at a QB upgrade and needing a QB.
2. Draft capital. The starting point for a trade like this is multiple high draft picks. My guess is three first-round picks at a minimum for Wilson.
3. Cap space. A team will need to have the ability to take on Wilson’s salary. Also, it would be silly to pay the price Wilson will command and not also turn around and sign him beyond 2023.
4. A return option at QB. Without a first-round pick this year, it is unlikely the Seahawks make a deal that doesn’t involve an established starter or a high enough draft pick to select an incoming 2022 rookie QB. This would also hinge on how the Seahawks organization views this crop of rookie QBs, widely seen as a below-average class.

If this were an obvious rebuild situation, the potential packages would be less narrow. But it is not. That is not how the Seahawks or Russell Wilson view the franchise’s short-term future. The Seahawks won’t be making a deal that hamstrings their 2022 season. This will contribute to Wilson’s price tag. The Seahawks do not need to make a move. They have a QB signed through the 2023 season. The situation and relationship are not as dire as has been rumored. Wilson’s no-trade clause and the Seahawks’ lack of pressure to find a new QB give the Seahawks leverage.

Which teams check enough boxes and are plausible candidates? The following is a list of potential suitors (in no particular order) along with their current situations and potential trade offer firepower.

Denver Broncos

• Need at QB: Yes.
• Projected 2022 cap space: $38.9 million (6^th most)
• Draft capital: Eleven total picks in 2022 including the 9^th
• Return option at QB: This is where the Broncos do not have much to offer. Bridgewater is a free agent and Drew Lock is not a QB the Seahawks will consider in return. A more likely return option at QB would be the 9^th overall draft pick, which is probably high enough to land one of the top 2022 rookie QBs.

With the cap space and draft picks held by the Broncos, they are in a relatively good position to make an offer. If the Seahawks are looking at a rookie QB like Matt Corral (Ole Miss) then the 9^th overall pick could serve as a return option at QB.

Suggested Read: Are The Broncos A Quarterback Away From Contending?

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Need at QB: Yes.
• Projected 2022 cap space: $28.7 million (10^th most)
• Draft capital: Six total picks in 2022 including the 20^th
• Return option at QB: No. Mason Rudolph should not be in the conversation, as a potential trade chip or as the starter for the Steelers in 2022. The 20^th overall pick would not guarantee the Seahawks their preferred rookie QB if they are looking at that option.

The Steelers are one of the more QB-needy teams in the league with Mason Rudolph as the only option if the season started today. However, they do not have the draft capital or existing trade pieces to acquire Wilson. It makes more sense for the Steelers to pursue one of the free agent QBs like Mitchell Trubisky or Marcus Mariota, or look at a QB early in the draft.

New York Giants

• Need at QB: Kind of. Daniel Jones may get one more shot to secure the long-term starting QB role for the Giants.
• Projected 2022 cap space: -$12.2 million (6^th lowest)
• Draft capital: Eleven total picks in 2022 including two 1^st rounders.
• Return option at QB: No. The Seahawks won’t make a deal which leaves them with Daniel Jones as their starter.

Russell Wilson on the Giants does make sense, as I think he would welcome the spotlight of that city and market. And while I don’t think Daniel Jones sweetens the deal as a return option at QB, the Giants do have solid draft capital with the 5^th and 7^th overall picks and five more picks after that in Rounds 2-4. The Giants’ cap situation could be the deal-breaker, but teams always seem to find a way around that obstacle. I’ll bet the Giants are very much regretting the Kenny Golladay signing and his $21.2 million cap hit in 2022 ($23.6 million if they release him).

New Orleans Saints

• Need at QB: Yes.
• Projected 2022 cap space: -$76.2 million (lowest by far)
• Draft capital: Eight total picks in 2022 including the 18^th overall.
• Return option at QB: No.

The Saints are an obvious option due to their glaring need at QB, but they lack the ability to make a serious offer. With their cap space situation, relative lack of draft capital, and absolutely nothing in a return option at QB, the odds of Russell heading to Louisiana are slim to none, and closer to none as I doubt Wilson would waive the no-trade clause now that Sean Payton is no longer the head coach.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Need at QB: Yes. The Buccaneers do not want to move forward with the unproven Kyle Trask as their starter.
• Projected 2022 cap space: $2.4 million (12^th lowest)
• Draft capital: Six total picks in 2022 including the 27^th overall.
• Return option at QB: No.

The Buccaneers are one of the more likely teams if you look at the Vegas odds. I don’t see it. I know Bruce Arians would love to bring in another future HOF QB to replace the last one, but the Buccaneers lack the draft capital and return option at QB to generate the type of package it will take.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Need at QB: No and maybe. This is another example of a team that might want to upgrade at the QB position from Derek Carr to Russell Wilson, but in no way needs to in 2022. Carr is only 31 and entering a contract year. His next contract will fetch a hefty price tag.
• Projected 2022 cap space: $18.9 million (14^th most)
• Draft capital: Eight total picks in 2022 including 22^nd overall.
• Return option at QB: Yes. As far as rumored teams thus far, Derek Carr is the best return option at QB.

For this trade to occur, even with Derek Carr as part of the package, the Raiders would have to unload high draft picks over the next two years. Both QBs are nearing the end of their existing contracts. Carr’s 2022 cap hit (compared to Wilson’s) would save the Seahawks approximately $17 million, which would make it much easier to re-sign Penny (or one of the free agent RBs) and extend Wagner, along with bringing in help along the offensive and/or defensive line. Lastly, the Raiders, who were listed as an approved team a year ago, are likely still one of the teams Wilson would approve a trade, especially now with an offensive-minded head coach like Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas.

Indianapolis Colts

• Need at QB: Kind of. Carson Wentz has not been a good NFL QB for multiple seasons now. But it is unknown exactly how the Colts view Wentz’s future in Indianapolis.
• Projected 2022 cap space: $35.9 million (7^th highest)
• Draft capital: Eight total picks in 2022, but no picks in the 1^st round.
• Return option at QB: Possible. I don’t think the Seahawks would accept Wentz as the return QB in a deal, but it’s not impossible if the rest of the trade package is valuable enough.

This is another option that is fun to talk about but is not likely. Even if the Seahawks have a higher grade on Wentz than we think, the Colts don’t have the draft capital firepower without a first-round pick.

Conclusion: Will the Seahawks Trade Russell Wilson?

I do not believe a trade happens. Russell Wilson will be a Seahawk in 2022. The recent “coach speak indicates that both Wilson and Pete Carroll expect Russell to stay put.

What are the Seahawks saying to potential trade offers? 

Pete Carroll says John Schneider fields calls on Russell Wilson and has same response every time.

“We’re not shopping the quarterback.”

— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) March 2, 2022

Aside from that, the asking price will end up being too high, and none of the potential teams have the perfect combination of pieces to get it done. The Seahawks do not need a new QB and do not view this as a rebuild situation. Unless a team blows them out of the water with a trade offer, the Seahawks should keep Wilson for one more season. If a parting of ways is on the horizon, if the Seahawks do not plan to extend Wilson’s contract, then they should wait until 2023. It will be Wilson’s contract year and unless the wheels completely fall off in 2022, he will command a similar price. And with the projected QB talent coming in the 2023 rookie class, it makes more long-term sense for the Seahawks to wait and try to jump up near the top of the 2023 NFL Draft if they intend to replace Russell Wilson with a rookie QB.