Deebo Samuel Fantasy
Deebo Samuel was selected by the San Francisco 49ers with the fourth pick in the second round of the 2019 NFL draft. With wide receivers, a position of need this pick did not come as too much as a surprise. Honestly, Samuel landing in San Francisco should have been a foregone conclusion pre-draft because of the 49ers’ coaching staff role in the 2019 Senior Bowl. He got the chance to meet and work with head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch. His overall performance at the Senior Bowl ultimately convinced the 49ers to draft him and for him to make an impact from day one. The 49ers are hoping to pair Samuel with Dante Pettis, George Kittle and a plethora of running backs that will potentially unlock quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s ceiling.
So what will his fantasy impact be in 2019? What can Samuel contribute as a receiver in year one, and how will his impact be felt by the offensive pieces already set in San Francisco? Well for starters, please refer back to my recent article that takes a look at notable wide receiver fantasy finishes since 2010 for rookie wide receivers. Set the expectations straight. Now that expectations have been set, let’s dive into the situation that Samuel finds himself in for 2019.
The Situation
Samuel is entering a San Francisco 49ers’ offense that severely lacked depth at the wide receiver position and the skill position as a whole in 2019. Outside of Kittle who full capitalized the lack of weapons surrounding him, the 49ers were filled with unreliable fantasy options in 2018. Kendrick Bourne (WR65), Dante Pettis (WR71), and Marquise Goodwin (WR83) rounded out the receivers to go along with the running back Matt Breida (RB26). However, Pettis did flash towards the end of 2018.
Deebo Samuel is such a hard cover for defensive backs that he should find success in most systems, but if he’s put in an offense that likes to utilize option routes and has a QB who throws accurate short passes, he has the potential to be a star.
Read: https://t.co/BzoECH4KFI pic.twitter.com/s9ICDDIUl5
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) April 27, 2019
From Weeks 12-15 Pettis on just 22 targets ranked ninth in receiving yards (338), second in touchdowns (4), second in yards/receptions (19.9) and fifth in YAC (yards after catch)/reception (8.5). However, the addition of Samuel may put on a damper on the ceiling for Pettis. And for Kittle, he does not project to see the same type of record-breaking season because of the addition of new weapons to the offense. Samuel’s skillset translates to him most likely being able to contribute quickly at the NFL level and it seems like the coaches are on board. Kyle Shanahan has been very impressed with Samuel, and it appears they plan to throw him right into the fire via Keith Hernandez on Rotoballer.
Samuel brings the attitude of an “alpha” to the San Francisco wide receiver room. His name “Deebo” is after the dude in the movie Friday. Because he bullied kids growing up. As Ted Nguyen describes on Twitter, the 49ers’ west coast offense is perfect for Samuel.
The 49ers want to build a more balanced passing offense and expect Samuel to be a large part of it. In 2018, despite the carousel of quarterbacks between Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, and C.J. Beathard, the 49ers ranked ninth in yards/pass attempt (7.3), and 15th in passing yards/game (241.7). Efficient numbers while ranking 20th in passing attempts per game. The offense ranked last in red zone scoring percentage (41.18%). But by breaking out Garoppolo’s full numbers from his eight-game sample size from his 49ers starts we could project 4,556 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns at 8.45 yards/attempt for 534 passing attempts. This is in line with Shanahan’s offenses from the past and may even be a modest projection. Offenses under Shanahan since 2008 have averaged 563 passing attempts per season. And interestingly enough since 2011, the passing attempts have flip-flopped from increases to decreases in pass attempts as seen below. So there’s a chance that perhaps Garoppolo hits that 600 passing attempt mark in a fully healthy season. Especially with the current state of the team’s secondary which features Jaquiski Tartt, Adrian Colbert, Ahkello Witherspoon, Jimmie Ward, Jason Verrett, and Richard Sherman.
Four quarterbacks in total last season saw 600 plus passing attempts. They were Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins. They all finished as top-12 quarterbacks, they all threw 30 or more touchdowns, and all of them outside Cousins finished top-five in fantasy as well.
Passing Volume Under Kyle Shanahan
- 2018: 531 – SF
- 2017: 606 – SF
- 2016: 534 – ATL
- 2015: 620 – ATL
- 2014: 502 – CLE
- 2013: 611 – WAS
- 2012: 443 – WAS
- 2011: 590 – WAS
The addition of Samuel will help the 49ers passing game as a whole and specifically Garoppolo’s passing production in 2019. But it’s the scheme fit for Samuel that makes him interesting a target in fantasy football. Especially in his ability to break tackles after the catch.
Kyle Shanahan and YAC
If we look at the past receivers and tight ends that have succeeded under Shanahan a lot of it has been because of yards after the catch. Just looking back at last season the 49ers offense possessed two of the top three players in yards after catch/reception. George Kittle led the NFL (9.9) with Dante Pettis (7.9) coming in third out all of tight ends and wide receivers that had at least 40 targets. In 2016, it was Taylor Gabriel with the Atlanta Falcons who ranked second in the NFL in YAC/reception (8.1). That same season Julio Jones ranked 11th overall in total YAC. In 2015, Julio Jones led the NFL in total YAC.
In 2014 with the Cleveland Browns again the team was filled with YAC monsters. Taylor Gabriel (7.6), Jordan Cameron (7.5), and Josh Gordon (7.0) all ranked in the top nine in YAC/reception. Andrew Hawkins ranked 16th overall in total YAC. In 2013, with the Redskins, Pierre Garçon was second in the NFL in YAC. In 2012, Garçon and Santana Moss both ranked in the top-13 in YAC/reception. Now factor in how productive of a YAC receiver Samuel was at the collegiate level, and it’s difficult to not get excited about his 2019 output.
Deebo Samuel Projection
From a projection output, what can we expect from Samuel specifically in an offense totaling 4,556 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 534 passing attempts with a completion percentage of 65.4%? Well first let’s look at target share. The top receivers under Shanahan have generated the following target share. It averages out to 23.76% for the target leader with the tight end position also factored in. With just wide receivers specifically, it comes out to 22.60%. So roughly 23% target share for the number one option in the passing game. Kittle was the only non-wide receiver to lead a Shanahan offense in total target share dating back to 2008.
- 2018: 531 – SF (24.10%) with the tight end, without tight end (11.30%)
- 2017: 606 – SF (16.33%)
- 2016: 534 – ATL (23.41%)
- 2015: 620 – ATL (31.11%)
- 2014: 502 – CLE (20.11%)
- 2013: 611 – WAS (28.48%)
- 2012: 443 – WAS (15.58%)
- 2011: 590 – WAS (18.64%)
- 2010: 605 – WAS (23.96%)
- 2009: 593 – HOU (28.84%)
- 2008: 555 – HOU (30.81%)
Based on these projections for a 23% target share, Samuel could see upwards to 123 targets. With a 66.4% catch rate and 14 yards per completion (college rates), that projects out to 82 receptions for 1,148 receiving yards. As for touchdowns, its a much harder projection. But if we see 24 passing touchdowns from the offense on 2019, five touchdowns for Samuel seems probable based on his target share.
The Verdict
It’s just a matter of time before Samuel takes on that wide receiver one role. Kittle is an obvious regression candidate and Pettis does not fit the type of YAC receiver that we have seen thrive so successfully in the Kyle Shanahan system. Consider Pettis averaged just 3.9 YAC/reception in the NCAA, and then ended last season in the NFL second overall (7.9) in YAC/reception (minimum 40 targets). Now imagine integrating a receiver that averaged 8.4 YAC/reception in the NCAA and what he can do at the next level. Samuel finds himself in a unique situation within an above average offense, where his impact will help Garoppolo and be felt much sooner than most rookie wide receivers. Because nothing helps quarterbacks in fantasy more than YAC from their receivers. Last season, of all players with at least 82 targets the five leaders in YAC/reception (Mohamed Sanu, Tyreek Hill, T.Y. Hilton, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Calvin Ridley) were all tied to quarterbacks that finished in the top-five in fantasy production at the position.
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