The Baltimore Ravens have made it quite clear that in 2019 they are going to build around their second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson. They made the choice to surround Jackson on offense with players that possess elite speed. With the 25th pick in the first round, the Ravens selected wide receiver Marquise Brown from Oklahoma. There hope is that with the addition of Brown among other pieces like Miles Boykin and Justice Hill that Jackson can take that next step.
So what will his fantasy impact be in 2019? What can Brown contribute as a receiver in year one, and how will his impact be felt by the new offensive coordinator (OC) Greg Roman in the 2019 fully Jackson-led offense? Well for starters, let’s look at notable wide receiver fantasy finishes since 2010 for rookie wide receivers.
Progression of NFL Rookie Wide Receivers
Dating back to 2010 here is a quick look at notable wide receivers and their finishes in fantasy. Basically, we are looking to see how long it took them to become a Top 24 standard fantasy finisher or a WR2. The main takeaways are as follows. (The entire list is at the bottom of the article). Of the 83 wide receivers recorded:
- 13 had their first Top 24 fantasy finish in their rookie season (16%)
- 16 had their first Top 24 fantasy finish in their second season (19%)
- 7 had their first Top 24 fantasy finish in their third season (8%)
- 3 had their first Top 24 fantasy finish in their fourth season (3%)
- 4 had their Top 24 fantasy finish in their fifth season (5%)
- The remaining 40 players have yet to achieve a Top 24 fantasy finish (48%)
16% of the most notable rookie wide receivers dating back to 2010 had a Top 24 fantasy finish. Most recently with Atlanta wide receiver Calvin Ridley attaining WR18 status in standard leagues in 2018. So what does this mean for Brown? History has shown us that seeing a rookie wide receiver finish Top 24 can happen. Let dive in on his current situation for 2019.
The Situation
Brown is entering a Baltimore offense that was severely lacking receivers in the passing game. The Ravens made it a priority to address the position in the NFL Draft creating the opportunity for Brown to become the number one wide receiver on the team. Last season under Jackson, the Ravens fully embraced the running game and disowned the passing game, but at extremely high rates.
Graham Barfield from NFL.com tweeted: In eight games with Lamar Jackson as a starter (including postseason), #Ravens WRs averaged 18.1 PPR points per game. This was the worst per game average for a single-team in six seasons (2012 Chiefs – 16.1 PPG). Meanwhile, in the running game, the Ravens were absurdly productive also via Barfield on Twitter: Once Lamar Jackson took over as the #Ravens starter in Week 11, Baltimore went 64% run-heavy — by far the highest rate in the NFL. In this span, Baltimore RBs ranked fourth in success rate (55%), second in carries per game (24.9), and first in yards/carry (5.3). Mark Ingram is going to eat.
Now for context that 2012 Chiefs squad went 2-14 led by the likes of Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn, and Dwayne Bowe. Also ranked dead last in points per game. In 2013, that team improved drastically under new head coach Andy Reid where they had a top-six offense.
Then addressing the running rates, 64% needs to clearly be identified as an outlier in projections. In recent years teams that have ranked number one in rushing play percentage have more frequently hovered around the 50-52% rate, not 64%.
With the Ravens forced into desperate tactics after Joe Flacco got injured last season, they were forced into going into extreme rates on running behind their rookie quarterback. However, with the hiring of Roman, expect to see a more a balanced attack that will feature Hollywood Brown.
Greg Roman
In prior Roman offenses in San Franciso from 2011-2014, the WR1 target share ranged from 27-31% with total targets approaching 115-130 total targets. Then in his one full year with Buffalo in 2015, Sammy Watkins in just 13 games had 1047 receiving yards on just 96 targets. Who’s to say this can’t be Brown in 2019? Some will argue there can’t possibly be enough passing volume. This is definitely a concern because play volume will most likely not be in high demand.
The offense will most likely be concentrated to Jackson, Mark Ingram, and whichever pass-catcher (wide receiver or tight end) emerges as the primary option. Roman’s offensive passing ranks fall to the bottom of the league where his teams have ranged between 29th to 32nd in total passing attempts and 23rd to 30th in total passing yards. His offenses have averaged to 52% to 48% pass-run ratio over his career. Where that may not end up being the case, and that run play selection seems more likely to fit a 48% to 52% pass-run ratio, it is a very significant difference from the 64% run rate discussed earlier.
Under Roman, quarterbacks have averaged 7.7 yards/attempt (YPA) when he has been an OC. Jackson’s YPA was 7.1 last season, and he was at or above 7.1 in four out of his seven starts. Realistically, seeing Jackson’s YPA increase seems more like a lock rather than anything else considering he is adding Brown to the mix. In 2017, Brown when targeted by Baker Mayfield (135.5 passer rating) fifth highest in the NCAA. In 2018, with Kyler Murray? (135.1 passer rating) fourth highest in the NCAA (82 target minimum in both cases). Having a threat downfield like Brown is going to significantly help Jackson. Especially when you compare him to what was going on last season with the Baltimore wide receivers. The likes of Michael Crabtree (100.3), Willie Snead (74.1), Chris Moore (73.3) and John Brown (41.0). Jackson has had less than stellar play at the receiver position in college and in the pros. Brown changes that dynamic.
Brown Projection
From a projection standpoint, because the offense will be different in 2019, you won’t see an extrapolation of Jackson’s 2018 statistics to predict the target share for Brown. Instead, we will take what the averages of the Greg Roman offenses and his number one wideouts. Again for a more further dive refer to Gridiron Experts’ Jesse Jones in his article on the 2019 Ravens offense.
Based on Roman’s offensive tendencies of 60 plays per game on average that creates 960 plays total over a 16-game span. And at 48% to 52% pass-run ratio, that equates to 460 pass attempts. Consider then that the WR1 in Roman’s offenses have seen anywhere between 25-31% target share and Brown has a chance at least 115 targets. In most cases, that is not going get it done in fantasy football. However, based on the fact that Brown is an explosive downfield receiver who averaged 18.3 yards/reception at the college level, his targets will have more points behind them. With a catch percentage of 71.4% in college, Brown could finish 2019 if healthy with 80 receptions for over 1400 yards. Gaudy numbers yes, but Brown’s the type of receiver has that kind of upside if emerges as Jackson No.1 target in the passing game.
As for touchdowns, its a much harder projection. Super volatile, but a projection of four to nine touchdowns fits what we have seen from former number WR1s with Roman. So what is the final projection? Again, 80 receptions for 1400 yards and five touchdowns sounds like a lot, but Brown is not your average receiver. Again, many of his concerns are durability, but if Brown makes it through an entire season, I’ve laid out the projection for him to finish as not only a top 24 receiver but rather a top 12 one.
Lamar Jackson
Teams that face mobile quarterbacks are unable to utilize a Man Cover 2 defensive scheme where there are two safeties back to protect against the deep ball. This was true according to Sports Info Solutions and Football Outsiders, where teams avoided that scheme all costs when playing Jackson in 2017. In their database, they found that opponents of Jackson playing other teams used Man Cover 2 at the fourth-highest rate in the FBS. But when they played Jackson that rate fell to an astonishing 52nd lowest-rate.
In the NFL in 2017, Man Cover 2 was used at 133% the rate it is used in the FBS. In that season it was the fourth-most popular coverage in the NFL. Nine teams employed this defense on more than 10% of quarterback dropbacks. That included the Steelers, Buccaneers, Titans, Browns, and Broncos. The Bengals were above 9%. Jackson only got to play three of these teams in 2018 as the starter (Buccaneers, Browns, and Bengals). No surprise he rushed for 90+ yards in all three games. His rushing totals were highest against those teams than any other teams he played all season his rookie year. Not a coincidence.
Interestingly enough in 2017 in the FBS, teams that faced non-scrambling quarterbacks employed Man Cover 2 more often. When Jackson got the chance to face Man Cover 2, he dominated with his legs practically forcing teams out of the coverage. Via Sports Info Solutions, Jackson faced two-man on 50 dropbacks and scrambled on 13 of them (26%). His success rate was 84.6% and he averaged 15.2 yards per attempt.
The main takeaway here: Man Cover 2 is the coverage that leaves defenses most susceptible to success by mobile quarterbacks, especially on scrambles. The impact of Brown on Jackson’s fantasy upside is astronomical. As a quarterback that is already going late in redraft leagues outside the top-twelve, he’s the easiest quarterback to get on your fantasy team that will surpass expectations based on draft cost. Then as the savvy fantasy owner, you are, you research the teams that play a lot of Man Cover 2 and look for Jackson to have big games against them. Ever wonder why Michael Vick was so good in Madden? Well, it’s because by default Man Cover 2 is one of the first defensive options that a player could select…MIND BLOWN. So maybe Vick was not just a cheat code, but rather every Madden player just picked the absolute worst defense against him without knowing….go figure.
The Verdict
Be greedy when others are fearful. The fantasy community seems overall down on the landing spot for Brown, but I have laid out the foundation as to why that is not necessarily true. Take advantage of that and buy into him going into 2019. If he stays healthy and becomes the number one in the offense, we will be beating ourselves up about how we were too late to buy into the first receiver selected in the 2019 Draft.
Thanks for Reading!
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Notable Wide Receiver Fantasy Finishes Since 2010
2014
- Sammy Watkins – WR25, WR16 – Year 2
- Mike Evans – WR11 – Year 1
- Odell Beckham – WR5 – Year 1
- Brandin Cooks – WR59, WR12 – Year 2
- Kelvin Benjamin – WR16 – Year 1
- Marqise Lee – WR96, WR114, WR44, WR43 – Never finished Top 24
- Jordan Matthews – WR24 – Year 1
- Paul Richardson – WR110, WR181, WR108, WR32 – Never finished Top 24.
- Davante Adams – WR79, WR81, WR7 – Year 3
- Allen Robinson – WR70, WR4 – Year 2
- Jarvis Landry – WR50, WR15 – Year 2
- Martavis Bryant – WR43, WR34, WR52 – Never finished Top 24
- Willie Snead IV – WR211, WR35, WR36, WR169, WR68 – Never finished Top 24
- Allen Hurns – WR44, WR14 – Year 2
2015
- Amari Cooper – WR25, WR12, WR31, WR19 – Year 2
- DeVante Parker – WR67, WR51, WR56, WR 106 -Never finished Top 24
- Nelson Agholor – WR110, WR90, WR23, WR40 – Year 3
- Philip Dorsett – WR116, WR76, WR125, WR88 -Never finished Top 24
- Tyler Lockett – WR43, WR60, WR58, WR11 – Year 4
- Devin Funchess – WR60, WR80, WR19 – Year 3
- Jamison Crowder – WR62, WR32, WR40 – Never finished Top 24
- Stefon Diggs – WR46, WR45, WR17 – Year 3
- Cameron Meredith – WR156, WR42 – Never finished Top 24
- Tyrell Williams – WR144, WR14 – Year 2
2016
- Corey Coleman – WR85, WR91 – Never finished Top 24
- Will Fuller – WR66, WR48, WR64 – Never finished Top 24
- Josh Doctson – WR169, WR51, WR75 – Never finished Top 24
- Laquon Treadwell – WR191, WR126, WR108 – Never finished Top 24
- Sterling Shepard – WR37, WR50, WR29 – Never finished Top 24
- Michael Thomas – WR9 – Year 1
- Tyreek Hill – WR17 – Year 1
- Robby Anderson – WR69, WR16 – Year 2
2017
- Corey Davis – WR104, WR27– Never finished Top 24
- Mike Williams – WR152, WR20 – Year 2
- John Ross – WR219, WR79 – Never finished Top 24
- Zay Jones – WR89, WR33 – Never finished Top 24
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – WR20 – Year 1
- Cooper Kupp – WR27, WR47 – Never finished Top 24
- Chris Godwin – WR71, WR25 – Never finished Top 24
- Kenny Golladay – WR62, WR21 – Year 2
- Dede Westbrook – WR98, WR35 – Never finished Top 24
- Keelan Cole – WR45, WR86 – Never finished Top 24
2018
- Calvin Ridley – WR18 – Year 1
- D.J. Moore – WR38 – Never finished Top 24
- Courtland Sutton – WR48 – Never finished Top 24
- Antonio Callaway – WR51 – Never finished Top 24
- Anthony Miller – WR52 – Never finished Top 24
- Christian Kirk – WR57 – Never finished Top 24
- Dante Pettis – WR61 – Never finished Top 24
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling – WR65 – Never finished Top 24
- Tre’Quan Smith – WR66 – Never finished Top 24
- Robert Foster – WR69 – Never finished Top 24
- Michael Gallup – WR76 – Never finished Top 24
