DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 18
The NFL Week 18 DFS slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With seventeen weeks of data under our belts, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
Results in select DraftKings contests:
- NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up [Single Entry] – 2267/2298
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – Awful
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – More Awful
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – Abysmal
- NFL GIANT $2 Double Up [Single Entry] – Horrific
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – Cover-your-eyes bad
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – At least my wife still loves me
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests – 0%
Cash line in DraftKings Massive $25 Double-Up contest – 120.38
This was my INITIAL cash game lineup for all contests in Week 17:
When contests locked at the beginning of Week 17, this was the lineup that I submitted.
This was based on one final decision I had to make on Sunday morning after I nailed down my pool of players. I posted about it online before I decided to pull the trigger on one side:
I chose the Purdy/Zeke side of this decision and that was the absolute wrong call to make. Tyrod Taylor (31% rostered) would score 22 points and pass for over 300 yards, Kyren Williams (also 31%) rushed for a hat trick of touchdowns and had 30 fantasy points, so I was dead in the water by the time the end of the first set of games came around.
Knowing that the three players I had left on the board were going to be ultra-chalky (Denver 43%, Everett 69%, and Rice 24%) I made a series of swaps in a last-ditch effort to save my lineup. This is where that swap landed me:
This swap did me no good, obviously, and even finished well behind my original lineup which finished with 105 DK points. Neither was close to the cash line in the end, and it was all thanks to one bad decision in a 2-v-2 that doomed me. I can’t complain too much, because I have been on the right side of that variance for five straight weeks before this, but I learned one valuable lesson on Sunday. Do not ever, EVER, play two Patriots in cash games.
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 18.
Quarterback
Geno Smith (DK: $6,100, FD: $7,300) might be the upper end of what I pay up for at quarterback this week with the Seahawks in a must-win, facing the Arizona Cardinals, and with Smith sure a $2 million bonus if the Seahawks make the playoffs. There are still plenty of players worth spending up on this slate (particularly at wide receiver), but I’m very happy to have Geno against the team that allowed the third-most passing touchdowns and sixth-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
Nick Mullens (DK: $5,100, FD: $7,100) came in at halftime against the Packers last week and proceeded to go 13-for-22 with a touchdown and 113 yards passing. Just double that production and it will more than pay off the low $5,100 tag for Mullens on Sunday over on DK. On FD this is a different story and he doesn’t look as valuable. Sunday is a must-win for the Vikings if they want any chance at the postseason, so expect Mullens to get the full workload for Minnesota with all the weapons available.
Jeff Driskel (DK: $4,000, FD: $6,000) should be the fifth different quarterback to start for the Browns this season, but at just $4,000 on DK, he can turn a profit if he can simply not turn the ball over every other play. The Browns have nothing to play for so their starters will be rested, but Driskel could still find some success against a Bengals team that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards to quarterbacks this season.
Running Back
Tony Pollard (DK: $6,500, FD: $7,600) doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence rostering him right now, as he has less than eight fantasy points in each of the last three games despite seeing at least 13 opportunities in all of them. But Pollard still ranks seventh in snap share and second in red zone touches this season and leads the world in fantasy points below expectation. Washington has allowed the sixth-most rushing touchdowns and fifth-most receiving touchdowns to running backs this season.
Zamir White (DK: $6,000, FD: $6,500) should get another 90% of the running back touches this week if Josh Jacobs (sidelined with a quad injury) sits out the season finale. White has at least 21 opportunities in each of the last three games he has filled in for Jacobs and has not scored fewer than 15.6 points in any of them. The Broncos’ run defense has been horrible this year and they have allowed the second-most rushing yards to the position (1,901).
Jordan Mason (DK: $4,600, FD: $5,700) likely gets the bulk of the 49ers work this week because Christian McCaffrey will sit with a mild calf strain, and his backup – Elijah Mitchell – will need to be put on ice in case he is needed for a CMC fill-in during the playoffs. In the eight games where Mason saw work this season, he averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry in five of them.
Pierre Strong (DK: $4,000, FD: $4,600) looks to have a big workload coming his way with Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford likely to sit this one out against the Bengals. Is Pierre Strong really good or is this a stellar matchup against the Bengals? Not really. But for a minimum-salary running back who is likely to get 75%+ of the work, we can take on that risk to make lineups work. I would not play Driskel and Strong in the same lineup, however.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb (DK: $9,300, $FD: $10,000) is one of many wide receivers paying up for this week with so much value available at quarterback, running back, and tight end. Lamb has a low of 19 fantasy points over the last five weeks and has not seen fewer than ten targets since Week 12. Add in the fact that Dallas is playing for the division against a Washington team that has allowed the second-most touchdowns and fantasy points to wide receivers, and Lamb is likely to be more than 50% rostered in contests this week.
Justin Jefferson (DK: $8,500, $9,000) saw horrific quarterback play and an asinine game plan in Week 17, but he proved in Week 16 that he is completely back from injury with his 141 yards and a touchdown. Pairing Jefferson and Nick Mullens should be a popular move in cash games and tournaments this week as his price is too cheap on both sites for how involved he should be in a must-win game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK: $8,600, FD: $8,800) and the rest of the Lions are on a mission after their controversial loss in Week 17 and have vowed to play all their guys so they can get back into the win column before the playoffs. The Lions do have an incentive to win so they can clinch the two-seed and two home playoff games. There is certainly some risk of ARSB sitting some if the Lions pull ahead in this one, but he is averaging 27 fantasy points per game in his last three contests and just dropped over 31 fantasy points against the Vikings two weeks ago.
D.J. Moore (DK: $7,000, FD: $8,000) has been masterful in three of his last five games and the rivalry nature of this last game against Green Bay has Justin Fields and Moore fired up, even though they have nothing to play for. Already locked into the number one overall pick from the Panthers, look for the Bears to go all-out in this game to play spoiler to their hated rival from the NFC North. In the two games before the Green Bay defense got a gift by playing against Jaren Hall, they gave up an average of 325 passing yards to Carolina and Tampa Bay.
Tyler Lockett (DK: $5,600, FD: $6,800) has seen his salary fall to the level of guys like Jordan Addison and Jakobi Meyers, but this might be the week he rebounds in a big way. Lockett only scored eight fantasy points the last time these two teams met, but as discussed in the Geno Smith section, this is a team in must-win mode against an average-at-best pass defense that will try to take away D.K. Metcalf first and foremost. There are other good plays in this range like Jayden Reed and Brandin Cooks, but Lockett’s salary and usage fit what our DFS lineups might need this week.
Tight End
Evan Engram (DK: $5,400, FD: $6,800) has an incredibly high 39 targets over the last four weeks and should have Trevor Lawrence back in a must-win game against a Tennessee team that has struggled against the pass all season. Among tight ends this season, Engram ranks first in targets, first in routes run, sixth in air yards, and second in yards after the catch. And yet, he is about $1,000 cheaper than the most expensive tight ends on the DK slate.
Gerald Everett (DK: $3,900, FD: $5,200) reached six straight games with at least four receptions and four straight games with at least eight targets last week and now gets a Kansas City defense that should rest most of its starters. With the recent boost in production with several LA wide receivers out, Everett is up to a 22.6% target share, ninth among all tight ends.
Noah Gray (DK: $2,500, FD: $4,800) is the stone minimum on DK for tight ends and steps in with no Travis Kelce this week. He is getting passes from Blaine Gabbert, but Gray had seven targets in the last two weeks combined WITH Kelce in the lineup. He could be in line for 5-7 targets on Sunday with starters resting.
Defense/Special Teams
Cincinnati Bengals DST (DK: $3,000, FD: $4,000) could be a nice bet for cash games because there is still a strong possibility that Jeff Driskel – who hasn’t started an NFL game this season – comes in and completely wets the bed. The potential for turnovers and sacks will definitely be on the table here and the Bengals are seven-point favorites at the time of this writing.
Los Angeles Chargers DST (DK: $2,800, FD: $3,300) will also line up against a Chiefs team that plans to rest all of its starters for Week 18. That means Blaine Gabbert (who is 3-for-5 with two interceptions this season) goes for Kansas City and the Chargers plan to play their starters in this game, giving LA the distinct advantage when KC has the ball.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build.
