Surprising NFL Outcomes
Now that week 18 is finally here everything is a bit more in focus. In this final week, NFL teams find themselves in one of three situations. They are either fighting for a playoff spot, resting players because their position is secured, or fighting for pride knowing when the playoff matchups start they’ll be watching from home. With another fantasy season behind us (except for those who have a final matchup in Week 18) we can now look at the season as a whole and determine the storylines that surprised us most. With that in mind, I am approaching my end-of-the-season NFL stats a bit differently. Instead of picking specific statistics I am going with the accumulation of those stats and what they meant for the final finishes of certain players. Here are my 10 surprising outcomes of the 2023 fantasy football season.
Patrick Mahomes (QB)
*Outside the top-5 at the position
Going into the season Patrick Mahomes was being drafted as the QB1 in the majority of leagues. As an elite talent at the QB position, the consensus was that he would still find a way to produce at a high level even if the talent around him (other than Travis Kelce) was average at best. But with the final week of the NFL season upon us, Mahomes is not even inside the top-5 at the position, let alone the QB1 overall. Mahomes has failed to finish inside the top-12 at the position in half of his games and the last time he was even a top-10 QB on the week was back in week 12. Since week 12 he has finished no better than QB14 and has been outside the top-15 four of his last five games. To make matters worse, in last week’s contest in what should have been a favorable matchup against the Bengals defense he only managed 14 fantasy points in leagues that give six points-per-passing touchdown and barely cracked the top-25. Needless to say, 2023 has been a disappointing fantasy year for Mahomes. Going into next season, he’ll likely still be considered a top-5 QB based on talent alone, and if he puts everything together and goes on a run in the playoffs then all might be forgiven, but until then owners of Mahomes are left to wonder where things went wrong.
Josh Allen (QB)
*No. 1 fantasy QB but has the 2nd most interceptions
The surprising part is not that Josh Allen finished as the QB1. In fantasy circles, most people assumed it would be him or Mahomes. The more surprising statistic is that he did so while also having the 2nd-most interceptions in the league. Through 16 games, Allen threw 15 interceptions (second only to Sam Howell) and only managed to throw 27 touchdowns (tied for 7th in the league.) Still, Allen finished as a top-5 QB in half of his games and finished outside the top-10 at his position just four times. This was largely due to his ability to make plays in the passing and running game. His prowess and ability to find the end zone on the ground is what ultimately separates him from any other QB not named Jalen Hurts. Allen rushed for 15 touchdowns this year (tied with Hurts), the next closest QB had six. This dual-threat ability to his game should make him the consensus QB1 come draft time next year. I will say that with some of the breakouts at QB this year (Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud) the strategy of waiting on QB may prove wiser than ever, but any team with Allen knows that in him they are getting a top-3 QB for the foreseeable future.
Tony Pollard (RB)
*Zero receiving touchdowns and outside the top-12 running backs
The hopes were extremely high for Pollard coming into the 2023 season. He was now going to have nobody to threaten him for work and a true workhorse role seemed likely. While the role has been encouraging, the production has not. With an ADP of RB6 in drafts this year, Pollard has failed to live up to those lofty expectations. Not only has he not been a surefire RB1, he has failed to return even RB2 numbers. Through 16 games, Pollard has finished outside the top-12 at the position in 12 of 16 games, with eight games outside of the top-25. Beyond his final ranking what is even more surprising is his lack of use in the passing game. While the targets have been there at times he only has four games of more than 25 receiving yards and has zero receiving touchdowns on the year. This lack of production has led many to speculate about what the Cowboys will do at the running back position in 2024. There’s a reality where Pollard reverts to a complimentary role, much like the one he had in 2023 when he was much more effective as a runner. This may all be a product of it being his first year in the lead role and things may come together next year, but those who are counting on that cannot be encouraged by what they saw this year.
Austin Ekeler (RB)
*Barely a top-25 fantasy running back in PPR leagues
It happens to every running back sooner or later. Constantly taking hits in one of the most physically demanding positions will eventually catch up with anyone. It seems that time may have come for standpoint running back Austin Ekeler. No matter how you look at it, Ekeler has to be one of the most disappointing fantasy assets in 2023, especially in PPR leagues. Ekeler was drafted as the RB2 in PPR leagues, and why not? For the last two seasons, Ekeler has been an automatic set-it-and-forget-it running back, finishing in the top-4 at the position. So it was reasonable to believe that when you drafted Ekeler you were at least getting a top-12 running back, and after week 1, it looked like that investment was going to pay off. In that matchup against the Miami Dolphins, Ekeler had 20 touches for 164 total yards and a touchdown, finishing as the RB2 in PPR leagues with 26.4 points. Then after that, it all went downhill. Ekeler missed three games due to injury and never reached those same heights again finishing outside the top-25 at the position eight times, and inside the top-8 just four times. This could be the beginning of a decline which will make it very interesting to see how Ekeler is perceived when drafts come along next season.
Kyren Williams (RB)
*A top-5 fantasy running back
This season there were several game-changing pickups off the waiver wire but Kyren Williams might be the cream of the crop. Coming into the season it was assumed that Cam Akers would finally have his chance at a starting role and because of how he played down the stretch in 2022 many fantasy managers were excited to get him late in drafts. Well, hindsight is always 20/20 but those who invested in Akers would’ve been wise to invest in Williams as well. In week 1, Akers had 22 carries which was promising, but he also got hurt and missed the next two games. In week 2, Williams received 20 touches and finished as the RB2 with 100 total yards and two total touchdowns. Akers never got the lead role back and then got traded to the Vikings where he suffered another Achilles injury in week 9 (likely ending his NFL career) and Williams became the league-winning type of player you hope to find off the waiver wire en route to a top-5 running back finish. It will be interesting to see what the Rams do with Williams in the offseason. As a fifth-round draft pick with moderate athletic ability, there is the chance they try to upgrade and he becomes another footnote in fantasy history (think James Robison.) But it’s also possible they’ve seen enough from him to feel comfortable rolling with him into 2024. If he is the guaranteed workhorse for the Rams next season he will be a late 1st/early 2nd round pick, but that is not yet a guarantee.
Puka Nacua (WR)
*A top-5 fantasy wide receiver
If you would’ve told me that two of the most valuable waiver wire pickups this year would come from the Rams I’m not sure I would’ve believed you. But if you managed to snag one of the Rams playmakers off the waiver wire (or even better, both) then there’s a good chance you were in the fantasy championship as long as the rest of your team didn’t implode. Rookie wide receiver breakouts are always hard to predict but from the very first week, it was clear that the Rams had found a talented receiver in Nacua and that he was someone to get on your squad. There was some healthy cautiousness surrounding Nacua in his first four weeks when he finished inside the top-10 three times (top-4 twice) without Cooper Kupp on the field. Most believed upon Kupp’s return Nacua would be a distant 2nd in targets and a WR3/flex for fantasy purposes. Nacua had other ideas. In his first game with Kupp, Nacua caught 7 of 11 targets for 71 yards and a score and finished as the WR11. While it’s true that Nacua was a bit more inconsistent as Kupp got more up to speed, he was still a solid WR2 with WR1 upside, ultimately finishing as the WR5 in half and full PPR formats. We don’t know what the future holds for the 30-year-old Kupp, but one thing is sure, Nacua’s future is bright.
CeeDee Lamb (WR)
*No.1 fantasy wide receiver
Everyone assumed that CeeDee Lamb would be a WR1, but THE WR1 is a bit surprising with names like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, and Stefon Diggs. Granted, other than Diggs every one of those players missed at least one game due to injury, and have quality WR2s on their team to utilize, but Lamb’s level of success was still not something many people expected. Since his week 7 bye, Lamb has seen fewer than 10 targets in just two games and has finished outside the top-10 at the position just three times making Lamb about as consistent as you can get. He’s also looked very good and at 24 years of age, his best years are yet to come. With that rare combination of speed and pristine route running he is a matchup nightmare, and unless you are one of the few shutdown cornerbacks in the league you don’t stand much of a chance (even then it’s a tall order.) For most people (myself included) Lamb will be the consensus WR1 come draft time next year. You may be able to make an argument for Tyreek Hill, but I’d rather take a chance on an elite wide receiver who will be 25 years old to start the season than on one who will be turning 30 before the season starts. Lamb had an ADP of 11th overall as the WR6 and still managed to outperform his ADP. That’s impressive.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
*Finished higher than Deebo Samuel
Other than a WR5 finish last week against the Washington Commanders, recent weeks have not been as kind to Aiyuk as the earlier part of the season. Yet, he’s still been able to produce either WR1 or WR2 numbers in six of his last eight games. For a player who was drafted as a mid-range WR3 that’s not a bad return. Much of the reason for the recent regression is the emergence of teammate Deebo Samuel. Going by drafts Samuel was the more desired asset, being drafted as the WR17 and 36th overall (nearly 30 picks sooner than Aiyuk), and over the last several weeks that is exactly how it has played out with Samuel having five top-12 finishes in his last six games. Still, the fact that Aiyuk outperformed Samuel early in the season combined with Samuel missing two games led to Aiyuk finishing as the WR12 (two spots higher than Samuel.) But that shouldn’t impact the way they are perceived going forward. Aiyuk is two years younger, but Samuel is the more dynamic player capable of scoring fantasy points both through the air and on the ground. With the way they (and the 49ers as a whole) looked in 2023, their ADPs may be closer next year than they were this year, but Samuel should still be soundly on top.
Sam LaPorta (TE)
*No. 1 fantasy tight end
Who says tight ends can’t be successful in their rookie season? Well, whoever it is never sent the memo to Sam LaPorta. Not only was LaPorta successful but he was the most successful (from a fantasy perspective.) While there were tight ends with more receptions and more yards, none of them had the scoring ability of LaPorta. In his rookie campaign, LaPorta found himself dancing in the end zone nine times. The next closest tight end had six receiving scores. On a team that also boasts dynamic playmakers like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, LaPorta was one of QB Jared Goff’s favorite targets with six or more targets (hitting double-digits four times) in 10 of his 16 games. He was a top-5 tight end seven times and one of the best mid to late-round values of the fantasy season. LaPorta was being taken as a backup tight end (barely in the top-20 at the position) and 163rd overall. For him to turn around and be the TE1 means he was probably on many fantasy championship teams. Tight end is perhaps the most volatile position in fantasy and the hardest position to predict so if you can get one late who ends up being a consistent advantage then you’ve struck gold. Unfortunately, it’s a one-year deal. LaPorta will not catch anyone off guard next year making the draft price much steeper for anyone who would want his services.
Trey McBride (TE)
*A top-8 fantasy tight end
Sam LaPorta was not the only surprising tight end performance in 2023. Coming into the season Arizona TE Trey McBride was firmly behind teammate Zach Ertz on the depth chart, and for the first seven weeks, it showed. But then something changed in Arizona. They began to get McBride more involved and after releasing Zach Ertz (per his request), McBride showed why he should’ve been the starter all along. From week 8 and beyond, McBride had seven top-12 tight end finishes, which included four top-3 finishes. No one could have expected it, but McBride may have made a case for being the 2nd tight end off the board next year (behind LaPorta.) McBride is only in his 2nd year in the NFL and was one of the top prospects coming into the NFL draft. With limited talent at the wide receiver position, making him a central part of their passing game makes sense. Depending on how the 2024 draft goes for Arizona, McBride could be a TE in the mold of Travis Kelce who is the No. 1 target on the team. If that happens he could finish as the TE1 next season and will be a bit cheaper than those taken ahead of him.
