Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 18
With week 18 here, fantasy managers in a battle for supremacy could find out why week 18 matchups are often ill-advised. With several teams securing their specific spot in the playoffs, players who are often game-changers at their respective positions could be sitting this week out as they prepare for the playoffs. Christian McCaffrey (arguably the fantasy MVP) has already been ruled out for this week and players like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and a trio of Browns (Joe Flacco, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku) could soon follow suit. This reality makes start/sit recommendations even more difficult as who you insert into your lineup could simply come down to necessity. Still, there are some names out there who could help you if you are in a pinch. The names below may not be the most obvious choices, but they’re all in spots that should either lead to or prevent fantasy production. Here are my final start/sit recommendations for the regular season.
Week 18 Starts
*Start Stat Percentage, Via Sleeper
Kyler Murray (QB)
Arizona Cardinals vs. SEA (26% Start)
Since his first start of the season, Kyler Murray has been inconsistent at best with four top-12 QB finishes and three finishes outside of the top-12. But in week 16 against the Philadelphia Eagles, we finally got to see the upside that Murray brings to the table. In that contest, Murray completed 25 of 31 passes for 232 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He also ran five times for 24 yards. When all was said and done Murray finished as the fourth-best QB on the week. Although the Eagles have allowed the 2nd-most points to quarterbacks this season, it was still nice to know that Murray is capable of fully taking advantage of a favorable matchup. In week 17, he’ll go up against a Seahawks defense that is giving up over 17 points a game to opposing signal callers, but with his ability as a dual-threat Murray should be able to surpass that mark by a decent margin. With QBs like Jackson and Mahomes likely sitting out week 18, Murray is in a great spot to help his managers secure a victory.
Jordan Love (QB)
Green Bay Packers vs. CHI (40% Start)
Week 18’s matchup against the Chicago Bears will be the biggest game and largest test of Jordan Love’s young career. The scenario is simple. If the Packers win, they are in the playoffs. If they lose, they need a lot of help from the Lions, Cardinals, and Falcons. As far as big games, it doesn’t get much bigger than a game at home against your fiercest division rival to secure a spot in the playoffs. Time will tell if the moment is too big for Love, but win or lose, I would consider putting him in your fantasy lineup when he takes the field this Sunday. The Bears defense (and offense) has been better as of late but they are still allowing the 12th most points to fantasy quarterbacks and have shown signs of vulnerability at times. Plus, with how Justin Fields has this offense rolling this game could be a higher-scoring game than many expect forcing Love to throw more than usual. Besides, Love is the QB5 this year and has looked good for the majority of the season, most recently finishing as the QB2 against Minnesota. This should be a close game, and it’s not a sure thing that the Packers will win, but Love has scored 20+ points in seven of his last eight games, and should be able to hit that mark once again.
Justice Hill (RB)
Baltimore Ravens vs. PIT (4% Start)
This one is a bit of a deep dive and largely relies on how the game plays out and who is actually active come Saturday. One team that figures to sit most of its key contributors in Week 18 is Baltimore, which wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC by destroying the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. While Lamar Jackson and many of his key targets will likely sit, someone will have to take the field. It is clear that Justice Hill is behind teammate Gus Edwards on the depth chart. In week 17, Edwards had 16 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown, but Hill also got involved with 112 total yards and a touchdown on just eight touches. With 64 of those yards coming in the passing game Hill could provide a nice half or full PPR floor. With nothing to play for it would make sense to keep Edwards fresh for the playoffs by calling on Hill to take on more work. If this happens, Hill could find success against a Steelers’ defense that enters Week 18 giving up the 14th-most fantasy points to running backs. In a week where some fantasy stalwarts will be sat, Hill could provide solid RB2 numbers with touchdown upside.
Khalil Herbert (RB)
Chicago Bears vs. GB (12% Start)
In 2023, the Chicago Bears backfield has been hard to figure out. At various times one of three running backs (D’Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson) all looked like they might lead this run game. Over the last two weeks, however, with Foreman being a healthy scratch and Johnson serving in more of a change of pace and passing down role, it has been Herbert who has emerged as the back to own. In his last two games, Herbert has run the ball 38 times for 236 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as a top-10 running back both weeks. It would be easier if we could chalk it up to easy matchups but in week 16 he faced the worst run defense in the league (Arizona) and in week 17 he faced a top-3 run defense (Atlanta.) In week 18, he gets a team that is closer to the former than the latter. The Packers are giving up the 12th most points to running backs, allowing 23 points per contest. If Herbert continues to see 20 touches then most of those points will go his way. The Bears aren’t playing for anything, but this rivalry is always hard fought and the Bears are not just going to lay down because there’s nothing on the line. Herbert should continue to be a big part of this offense and is a solid RB2 this week.
Demarcus Robinson (WR)
Los Angeles Rams vs. SF (12% Start)
This one is interesting. The 49ers have nothing to play for, while the Rams can only move from the 7th to 6th seed, so both teams could end up resting starters. But if the Rams do choose to limit some of their stars that might help Robinson, not hurt him. As good as Robinson has been over the last five weeks, he’s still not one of the stars of this team. If coach Sean McVay doesn’t want to risk getting players like Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, or Kyren Williams hurt then Robinson’s role would only grow as the game goes on. But even if the starters play the entire game, Robinson has proven he’s still capable of producing WR2 numbers, having done so in four of his last five games. San Francisco is a solid defense but has been vulnerable through the air at times. It doesn’t come without some risk, especially if McVay decides to rest Stafford, but you should know that before kick-off and would have time to pivot. But as things stand now, with what we know, and with how Robinson has been performing he is a great WR3 or flex option for your championship squad.
Jakobi Meyers (WR)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. DEN (28% Start)
Having both been eliminated from the playoffs neither of these teams has much on the line in week 18 other than pride, and yet with many of the uncertainties surrounding who will sit and who will play, I would recommend looking toward Jakobi Meyers as a viable WR3/flex this week. Yes, teammate Davante Adams just had 21 targets against the Indianapolis Colts in week 17, but what you may not realize is that Meyers had 10 targets of his own, and while the Broncos have been solid against wide receivers this year, the last time these two teams met (in week 1) it was Meyers, not Adams, who had the big game. In that contest, Meyers finished with nine catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns. With Meyers doing much of his damage in the middle of the field I expect him to find ways to produce once again in week 18. One other thing to consider is that Jarrett Stidham (who did not look good last week against the Chargers) will be making his second start for the Broncos. This could lead to several three-and-outs and a tired Broncos defense. If you need help at the wide receiver position, Meyers is a good option this week.
Juwan Johnson (TE)
New Orleans Saints vs. ATL (5% Start)
It seems the Taysom Hill experiment may be coming to a close in New Orleans. That isn’t to say that he has become completely irrelevant, just that they have noticed what I have been saying for some time now. Juwan Johnson is a talented tight end and should be a bigger part of this offense. Over the last two weeks, Johnson has received 19 targets, catching 12 for 138 yards and two touchdowns, while Hill has received six total touches for 33 yards and one touchdown. Johnson has also seen over 70% of the snaps in both games while Hill has not seen more than 34% in either game. The tide is turning and in week 18 when they face off against the Falcons I expect more of the same. The Saints are still competing for a playoff spot and even have an outside chance of winning the division (if they win and the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers) so expect them to keep their best offensive weapons on the field as much as possible. This includes Johnson who has looked like a matchup nightmare these past two weeks and was the TE1 in week 17. The Falcons are also a bottom-10 unit against tight ends so exploiting that weakness would make sense, and Johnson has the talent to do it. If you have him, fire him up.
Week 18 Sits
Matthew Stafford (QB)
Los Angeles Rams vs. SF (55% Start)
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence in 2023. Since his bye week, Stafford has thrown 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions. This includes four games with multiple TDs and zero interceptions. All this success has landed him in the top-12 at his position five of the last six weeks, three of which were against top-10 units against quarterbacks, so it may seem odd that I am recommending sitting him. Still, if you have another viable option I would consider using them this week. In week 18, Stafford will face off against a stingy San Francisco 49ers defense that held him to just one touchdown pass and two interceptions back in Week 2. I understand that the circumstances are different this time around with the 49ers already clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC and having little motivation in this one. But while it’s been reported that Christian McCaffrey will sit, it has also been reported that most of the starters for the 49ers will play, and while Stafford has been hot as of late, taking the risk of starting him against this defense in your fantasy championship is not something I would advise.
Austin Ekeler (RB)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. KC (87% Start)
There’s no other way to say it. Austin Ekeler has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy this season. The fantasy greatness we have grown accustomed to from Ekeler over the years simply hasn’t been there for much of this season. While it’s not all his fault, it has still been hard to stomach. Injuries to Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams have helped to cripple the explosiveness of the entire offense and have aided in limiting his fantasy ceiling. Even worse is the floor we now see from him with Easton Stick under center. This past week, against what has been the 2nd-most fantasy-friendly defense to opposing running backs, Ekeler only managed 50 total yards and only 3.5 fantasy points. Now he will face off against a Kansas City defense that has not been generous to opposing running backs and that should be able to make life very difficult for Stick. There is a chance that the Chiefs rest several of their starters in this one making things a bit easier for Stick & Co, but in the fantasy championship that is not something I would have to count on. Ekeler is a high-risk, mild-reward option at the RB position for Week 18, and one I would avoid.
Tee Higgins (WR)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. CLE (70% Start)
Tee Higgins has found it difficult to find any sort of consistency this year opposite star teammate Ja’Marr Chase. In 2023, when Chase and Higgins are both available, more often than not it has been Chase who has been the recommended play. Higgins has had moments of production but for the most part, his biggest games came with Chase either limited or out. Neither wide receiver did much of anything against the Chiefs in week 17, but prior to that, Higgins had two straight games of 20+ points and two top-10 wide receiver finishes. But in week 18, Higgins will be facing a Browns defense that ranks third against wide receivers and who held Higgins without a single catch on eight targets in the season opener with Joe Burrow under center. While Jake Browning has done a decent job filling in for Burrow, he is still a downgrade and could find it difficult to move the ball against arguably the best defense he’s faced since taking over starting duties. The reality is I don’t expect Chase to do much of anything this week either, but it’s nearly impossible to sit him the further removed he gets from injury, and I don’t see Browning supporting two fantasy-relevant wide receivers. As long as the Bengals have to rely on Browning I would not rely on Higgins.
Garrett Wilson (WR)
New York Jets vs. NE (76% Start)
If you have Breece Hall on your team, you’re starting him, even in a tough matchup, but he is the only Jets player I’d be willing to trust with a championship on the line. It’s unfortunate because no one can deny the talent of Garrett Wilson, but with a carousel of quarterbacks distributing the ball to him in 2023, consistency has been hard to come by, with a ceiling of 15 points and a floor of -.1. The volume has been there, but when those on the sidelines have a better chance of catching the ball than those on the field, it’s a problem. Ok, so that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but it’s been disappointing to have to sit back and imagine how good Wilson could’ve been had Aaron Rodgers never gotten hurt. The Patriots are not a particularly intimidating defense against wide receivers but they are a team still playing for pride, at home, in what could be a farewell to legendary coach Bill Belichick. The last time these two teams met (back in week 3) Garrett Wilson only had five receptions for 48 yards, and not much has changed for the better for the Jets since then. I’m fading Wilson out of my fantasy lineups for Week 18, and if you have any other reasonable options, you should too.
Evan Engram (TE)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. TEN (81% Start)
With an 81% start percentage at a very volatile position, I doubt many people will be able to afford to sit Engram in their championship, but I don’t trust that he’ll come through for his managers this week. The good thing about Engram is that he’s still heavily involved in the offense. He has not gotten fewer than six targets since week 1 and has eight or more targets in over half of his games. These targets have not always led to production but as the TE6 on the year, he’s been good more often than not. So why the recommendation? The matchup and recent history. Although the Titans are far more vulnerable through the air than on the ground, the tight end position is the one position in the passing game they have proven capable of shutting down. They are No. 1 against opposing tight ends this year. Also, the last time these two teams met (week 11) Engram caught four of six targets for 29 yards (4.9 fantasy points.) That was with Trevor Lawrence. There’s a chance Lawrence returns in week 18, but if he does I doubt he’ll be 100% (he has a history of playing through injuries) and if he doesn’t it will be C.J. Beathard under center. Either way, I’d stay away from Engram if at all possible in week 18.
