DFS Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 9
The NFL Week 9 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With eight weeks of data under our belts, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
Results on DraftKings:
- NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up [Single Entry] – 4564/6896
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 8457/16303
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 5419/9195
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 3688/4597
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 2867/4597
- NFL Single Entry $2 Double Up – 4190/5747
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 4575/5747
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests – 0%
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in Week 8:
My lineup fell below the cash line again in Week 8, and I have spent a few days trying to figure out exactly why. Much like my lookback of Week 7 when I could have blamed it all on a massively underperforming Cooper Kupp, I could look at the Lamar Jackson/Zay Flowers combo here and blame their lack of production. But I actually think it’s something different.
The lineups that had no problem clearing the cash line in Week 8 may or may not have had Lamar Jackson rostered everywhere (Jackson was more than 40%, the other most-rostered QBs made up about 30%), but one thing they all had was either A.J. Brown or Ja’Marr Chase. Two weeks in a row of no explosion game from a wide receiver is what is ultimately dooming these past two lineups. Quarterbacks are going to get between 15-20 points in a normal range of distribution, so I shouldn’t be counting on them for upsized performances (even if Lamar did have one in Week 8).
Sticking in the mid-range of all my wide receivers limited my ceiling with those plays. Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, and guys like that are all nice players, but they will never have the ceiling of an A.J. Brown or a Tyreek Hill. DFS lineups need a guy like that every week to drag teams across the finish line.
This was also the second week in a row where I had a massively chalky lineup but just didn’t get the right chalk (Kendrick Bourne, Josh Downs, MIN DST) to get over the hump.
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 9.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (DK: $8,000, FD: $9,000) gets the nod as the high-salary quarterback this week with no Patrick Mahomes, no Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson more expensive in what’s projected to be a slog of a game. The best thing about the matchup with the Cowboys for Hurts is that they have a high-powered offense that should ensure Philadelphia doesn’t have to take their foot off the gas in this game. This game has the highest total on the slate and the Eagles have the highest implied team total of all 20 teams in action.
Sam Howell DK: $5,800, FD: $7,400) has been in YOLO-passing mode for the better part of a month. Howell has more than 40 pass attempts in four of his last five games which has led to 290+ yards three times and a 10:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Howell is now just shy of 20 DraftKings points per game on the season and Washington is now the pass-happiest team in the entire NFL. They call a pass play on almost 69% of their plays on the season, including 76% in Week 8.
Aiden O’Connell (DK: $4,500, FD: $6,200) is back in our lives with Jimmie Garoppolo benched in Las Vegas for the foreseeable future. We almost got Sam Darnold at this low salary last week before the rug was yanked out beneath us on Saturday. That won’t be the case here as O’Connell is the confirmed starter and has the weapons in Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to pay off this low salary. And remember, in the last game he started, it was a rushing touchdown that helped pay the bills on that slate.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara (DK: $8,100, FD: $9,200) finally crosses the $8,000 mark on DK and the $9,000 mark on FD, and it’s probably two weeks overdue. Since returning from injury, Kamara has more than 20 fantasy points in three of five games and is seeing just about every other target in New Orleans. He is averaging almost nine targets per game in addition to at least 17 rush attempts in each of the last four contests. But most importantly, Kamara has 24 of the last 25 running back red zone touches for New Orleans.
Josh Jacobs (DK: $6,900, FD: $7,500) is not a name I like putting on this list, and is a real decision point if you think you want to pay down for Aiden O’Connell. Jacobs is getting plenty of opportunity, but only has over 19 fantasy points twice this year. He did – finally – for the first time this season crack 4.0 yards per carry in a game against Detroit last week, so perhaps his game is returning after sitting all offseason. New York is 29th in the NFL, allowing 4.8 yards per carry to opponents, so these salaries might end up being too low for Jacobs.
Bijan Robinson (DK: $6,100, FD: $7,100) got his first rushing touchdown of the entire season last week against Tennessee, a team that is notoriously tough to run on. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry in that game and somehow did not catch any of his five targets. Expect a much cleaner path to a huge fantasy game against Minnesota who allow more than four receptions per game to running backs and give up over 5.0 yards per play to opponents.
Chuba Hubbard (DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500) is likely the cheap running back you want this week based on his usage last week coming out of Carolina’s bye week. Hubbard saw a full 67% of snaps last week to just 18% for a struggling Miles Sanders. Hubbard also got five of the six opportunities for running backs in the red zone, including two from inside the five yard line. The Colts play such a fast brand of football, the Panthers should have an extra possession or two above expectation in this game.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown (DK: $8,600, $FD: $9,000) now has six straight games with more than 125 receiving yards, an NFL record. He also has five touchdowns in his last five games, but still sits $900 below where Tyreek Hill was on DraftKings last week. Starting at $7,600 this season, it was just way too low of a floor and the algorithm hasn’t caught up to his weekly ceiling, which is literally 40 points. The Cowboys are a top-ten team in yards per pass attempt to opponents, but Brown has seen below eight targets exactly once this year. He is worth this salary on both sites.
Adam Thielen (DK: $7,500, FD: $8,300) saw all the targets (11) and all the catches (8) last week against Houston, but his average depth of target (4.2 yards) was almost half of his seasonal number (7.3). As long as Thielen is the primary option in this passing game, we can live with the yardage totals while the catches tick up throughout the game. Thielen also has more than twice as many red zone targets than any other pass-catcher on the Panthers and now gets Indianapolis who are 26th in the league allowing 10.9 yards per completion to opponents.
Terry McLaurin (DK: $5,600, FD: $7,200) is not seeing a salary increase near what his usage is ever since Sam Howell started throwing 40 times per game. Over the last three games, McLaurin has 32 targets, 17 receptions, and over 70 yards per game. Jahan Dotson got more involved last week, but with how rarely they run the ball, this passing attack can easily support two receivers. After three straight weeks with over 14 DK points, McLaurin only saw his salary go up $300 on that site.
Demario Douglas (DK: $4,000, FD: $5,400) might just be the last man standing for the Patriots who have lost Kendrick Bourne to the IR and Davante Parker to concussion protocol. Douglas already had six and seven targets in the last two games and at least one rush attempt in each game. The Commanders have allowed the second-most DK points to opposing wide receivers this year, and there is little doubt that Douglas is going to be the man Mac Jones relies on most this week.
Tight End
Mark Andrews (DK: $6,800, FD: $7,500) just keeps scoring touchdowns for the Ravens. He now has five in his last five contests and is far and away the favorite target for Lamar Jackson, even when he doesn’t have a stellar game like in Week 8. Seattle travels all the way to Baltimore for this game which means Andrews gets some home cooking, where he generally excels. For his career, Andrews averages 4.6 catches, 60.4 yards and half a touchdown in home games.
Trey McBride (DK: $3,700, FD: $5,300) smashed at $2,800 on DK last week and now he is back to see what he can do for an encore after a 14-target, 10-catch game. We certainly won’t expect him to reach any of 14 targets, 10 catches, or 96 yards again, but he is very likely to get looks in the red zone. Of the seven total targets to pass-catchers in the red zone last week, McBride saw three of them. The other issue, of course, will be Clayton Tune throwing in this game instead of Joshua Dobbs. But that’s baked into the low salary and McBride will certainly be involved.
Cade Otton (DK: $3,000, FD: $4,900) checks in way too cheap for this enticing matchup with the Houston Texans. Houston has been gashed on the ground all year, but they also give up buckets of points to tight ends. They allow the third-most DraftKings points to the position this season including the second-most receptions (49) and the seventh-most receiving yards (454).
Defense/Special Teams
New England DST (DK: $2,900, FD: $3,700) will lineup against Washington this week, the team that has allowed the most sacks in the league and is on pace to break the all-time record of sacks allowed in one season. New England has forced at least two turnovers in each of the last two games, and gets the best situation possible for sacks and interceptions against a Washington team that throws at the highest rate in the league.
New York Giants DST (DK: $2,300, FD: $4,000) is way too cheap for this matchup against Aiden O’Connell and the Raiders, which sets up an interesting conundrum. Would you dare start O’Connell and the defense facing him in the same cash lineup. Normally, that’s a non-starter, but O’Connell can still be a turnover and sack machine (seven sacks and four turnovers in his last game) and still pass for a couple of touchdowns to pay off his value. I don’t love the idea of both of them together, but I don’t really hate it either.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. This lineup works well as of Friday morning because paying down for quarterback and tight end allows many of the pricier wide receiver and running back plays that I will be prioritizing. I don’t love two Panthers in the same lineup nor do I love the Raiders’ quarterback and running back after they have been so awful, so I may tinker with that some this weekend.