DFS Cash Game Plays: Wild Card Weekend
The NFL Wild Card Weekend DFS slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to last week’s DFS slate. With 18 weeks of data under our belts and just 12 teams playing, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out more than one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
DFS Tools
Previous Week’s Results
Results in select DraftKings contests:
- NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1804/2758
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 2747/4957
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 2134/3448
- NFL GIANT $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1547/2298
- NFL $5 Double Up [Single Entry] – 99/124
- NFL GIANT $2 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1643/2873
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 2184/3448
- NFL GIANT $10 Double Up [Single Entry] – 1544/2298
Winning percentage in Single Entry contests – 0%
Cash line in DraftKings Massive $25 Double-Up contest – 160.94
This was my cash game lineup for all contests in Week 18:
I won’t spend too much time on Week 18, because there were essentially two popular and chalky builds. This one is the build that didn’t make the cash line, while the most popular lineup (subbing out Moore, Gray, and CIN for Chris Olave, Jake Mundt, and LAC) ran a long train and chopped most double-up pots. Sometimes you’re on the right side of a 2-v-2, and sometimes you’re not.
Be sure you’re following me on X (@CableBoxScore) for any updates I make to my player pool as we get closer to lock. I will update that account every weekend with additional players as other news emerges.
Scoring Differences Between DraftKings and FanDuel
A quick primer on DraftKings versus FanDuel scoring for DFS if you are unfamiliar with their platforms.
- On DraftKings, you are selecting nine spots with a total of $50,000 to spend. FanDuel has nine spots with $60,000 to spend, so salaries are slightly higher.
- DraftKings is full PPR scoring, while FanDuel is half-PPR.
- DraftKings deducts one point for a fumble lost and an interception. FanDuel is minus two points for a lost fumble and minus one for an interception.
- DraftKings awards three-point bonuses for 300-yard passing games, 100-yard rushing games, and 100-yard receiving games. FanDuel does not award bonuses.
With those differences in mind, let’s look at which players make good selections in Week 18.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (DK: $7,700, FD: $9,000) might not even make the cut this week if we can’t be assured that the finger injury he suffered in Week 18 is healed, but he does have a great matchup against Tamp Bay for a discounted salary on DK. The Bucs allowed the second-most passing yards to quarterbacks this season, and they allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to the position. Guess which two things Jalen Hurts does well? This game has sneaky shootout potential, so Hurts will be called on often to make big plays.
Dak Prescott (DK: $7,600, FD: $8,600) is about the hottest player on the planet right now. He has 20 fantasy points in three straight starts and has turned CeeDee Lamb into the best wide receiver in the NFL. Prescott currently has the best odds to lead all quarterbacks in the playoffs in passing yards and is coming off a stretch this season where he threw 27 touchdowns to just two interceptions during one streak.
Baker Mayfield (DK: $5,800, FD: $7,200) is the salary-saving option if you need to drop down here. There is not a lot of value on this slate as we turn the corner into the weekend, so unless that changes, Baker against perhaps the worst pass defense in the NFL might be the piece you need. The Eagles are bottom-five in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed this season.
Running Back
Kyren Williams (DK: $7,300, FD: $9,000) has a Christian McCaffrey role right now, so with no CMC on this slate, Williams feels like a steal at these salaries on both sites. $7,300 on DK is especially egregious even against a tough Lions rush defense. Williams has a 78.4% opportunity share and an 83.9% snap share, which leads the NFL. But the best part are his 60 red zone touches, which rank fourth at the position this season, despite the multiple games he missed due to injuries.
Tony Pollard (DK: $6,100, FD: $7,800) looks like another player who is way too cheap for the opportunity and role in the Cowboys’ offense, but Pollard’s issue has been efficiency all year long. If you make me pick between the three, I would rather have Lamb and Jake Ferguson among the skill players, but Pollard being just $6,100 with 19 opportunities each of the last two games is underpriced.
Devin Singletary (DK: $5,700, FD: $6,300) saw 88% of the running back snaps in a must-win game last week that has a playoff atmosphere. Dameon Pierce saw zero snaps on offense. That kind of role will play the bills at this salary even against a tough Cleveland front seven. Singletary rushed for 4.9 yards per carry three weeks ago when these teams met and he caught three balls for 19 yards. He is worth every penny on this slate where money is tight.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb (DK: $9,000, $FD: $10,000) should be very popular in cash games this week coming off an average of 36 fantasy points in the last three games and getting a $300 salary reduction from Week 18 on DK. Lamb has 11 touchdowns since Week 8 on the back of 31 red zone targets this season, the highest number among wide receivers this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK: $8,000, FD: $9,000) would be the main topic of fantasy football conversation if CeeDee Lamb didn’t exist. He has at least six receptions, 90 yards, and a touchdown in four straight games and is now $600 cheaper on DK than he was in Week 18. This matchup of Lions versus Rams has the highest implied total on the weekend (51.5), even higher than Cowboys/Packers (50.5). Pieces of this game might be essential this weekend and St. Brown is the best piece on the Lions’ side.
Puka Nacua (DK: $7,200, FD: $8,000) had 105 receptions and 1,486 receiving yards as a rookie and it looks like he might have already supplanted Cooper Kupp as the most explosive receiver on the Rams. Nacua is going to make explosive plays if he gets the ball this weekend; he ranked sixth among wide receivers this year in yards per route run. The Lions ended up allowing the third-most receiving yards and touchdowns to wide receivers this season, so the way to beat Detroit is going to be through the air.
Mike Evans (DK: $6,900, FD: $8,400) might be a nice bet to lead the playoff slate in targets this weekend. The Eagles are atrocious against wide receivers this year and Baker Mayfield may understand the way to score on the Eagles is to beat them deep over and over again. Except for that weird game against the Saints, Evans has at least six targets in every game since Week 10 and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number is doubled in this game.
Demarcus Robinson (DK: $3,600, FD: $6,300) is about as cheap as you are going to see a quasi-full-time wide receiver get on this slate. Robinson has played more than 85% of the snaps in four of the last five games and he mostly rested in Week 18, meaning the Rams wanted to make sure he is healthy for the playoffs. In Weeks 13-17 Robinson never had fewer than 13.6 fantasy points and anything close to that is exactly what we need for under $4,000 on DK. He is not as appealing at the salary on FanDuel.
Tight End
David Njoku (DK: $5,600, FD: $7,000) has become one of the most reliable tight-end target monsters right now with the addition of Joe Flacco at quarterback. Like most starters, Njoku did not play in Week 18, but he had 39 targets in the four previous weeks and finished the season with a 21% target share and 882 receiving yards. The Texans allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position this season and their secondary will be focused on stopping Amari Cooper who beat them for more than 260 yards three weeks ago.
Jake Ferguson (DK: $4,700, FD: $6,200) has seen at least six targets in six straight games and finished the 2023 season with the most red zone targets among all NFL tight ends (25). The trust he has developed with Dak Prescott is incredible, and that allowed Ferguson to finish top-ten in yards, touchdowns, yards after the catch, and targets in his rookie season. In addition, only five teams allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than the Packers this season.
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo Bills DST (DK: $3,500, FD: $5,000) get the matchup against the worst remaining offense left, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Combine an inexperienced Mason Rudolph, the Bills as 10-point favorites, and a massive wind game with cold temperatures on Sunday, and this has the makings of a dominant Buffalo defensive performance. This is a steal on DK, but they are the most expensive defense available on FD.
Kansas City Chiefs DST (DK: $2,900, FD: $4,000) get a home game against a depleted Miami Dolphins offense in addition to the “authorities warning people to stay home” weather. The Dolphins have not won a game in under 35-degree temperature since at least 2017 and now face a resurgent Chiefs’ defense entering the playoffs top-ten in the NFL in scoring allowed and red zone touchdown percentage.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, remember that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build.
