PGA DFS Picks
The Genesis Invitational
Sift through information from this article to aid in your fantasy golf picks for the 2021 Genesis Invitational, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more insightful player selections for your DFS lineups. All the best this week!
Recap from last week: Daniel Berger shot a field best -7 in the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to win the event by two strokes over Maverick McNealy at -18 – big congrats to him for securing his 4th PGA Tour win! We were treated to amazing golf and scenery as well, I’ll never get tired of gorgeous views of the Pacific Ocean and Pebble Beach!
Preview for The Genesis Invitational: After last week’s subpar field, we now get a field that is pretty much a major-caliber one with most of the best players in the world competing. The PGA Tour stays in California but migrates from NoCal to SoCal for an event that has been a mainstay since 1926 starting out as simply, the Los Angeles Open. This week concludes the “west coast swing” – we won’t see another PGA Tour event played in California until the U.S. Open rolls around in mid-June and the players return to Torrey Pines in San Diego. The tournament record on this particular course surprisingly came way back in 1985 when Lanny Wadkins won for his second time in his career with a score of -20. The Riviera Country Club has played host multiple times for this event and has been this tournament’s regular home since 1999. The past five winners of The Genesis Invitational include Adam Scott in 2020, J.B. Holmes in 2019 (named The Genesis Open from 2017-2019), Bubba Watson in 2018, Dustin Johnson in 2017, and Bubba Watson in 2016 (named the Northern Trust Open from 2008-2016).
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Tournament purse: The purse for this year’s event is set at $9.3M, the winner receives $1.674M in prize money and earns himself 550 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: It will be nice to get back to a single course this week after last week’s two-course rotation for rounds one and two. The Riviera Country Club is again this year’s tournament destination – the track is 7,322 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are poa annua. The winning score over the past decade here ranges from -6 to -17, so depending on how organizers have the course set up and how the weather conditions play out, the score can vary widely. Some of the key player stats to research this week are strokes gained: ball-striking, driving distance, strokes gained: around the green, and strokes gained: putting (on poa annua).
The field: Last week’s full 156-player field takes a bit of a dip this week to 120 players – the top 65 players plus ties will see action in rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend. Bubba Watson has won this event three times in his career, Adam Scott has reigned supreme twice and is the defending champion, and Phil Mickelson has also won twice here as well going back-to-back in 2008 and 2009 but we won’t see him back in action this week. Dustin Johnson, James, Hahn, Charles Howell III, and J.B. Holmes are the four other players who have won here and are also in the field this week. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A+.
Lineup construction strategy this week: Around 60% of the field will make the cut this week so you can get a bit more aggressive with your lineup builds compared to last week. Plus, the field is very strong from top to (almost) bottom so you can easily do stars and scrubs this week and have 6 quality players in each lineup. Going the stars and scrubs route is also good from a unique lineup perspective as the $6K players are mostly all under 5% owned. With a quality field this week it’s tempting to spend every dollar you can for each lineup, but it’s always a good idea to leave some money on the table if your primary goal is to win a GPP outright.
All the best for putting together some contest wins this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Dustin Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $11.3K, FanDuel – $12.K) – Johnson is pure fire these days – he’s won two of his last three tournaments played – the Masters back in November and the Saudi International two weeks ago on the European Tour. He won this event four years ago and is well-positioned to win for the second time this week. The only knock against DJ this week is his projected high ownership – it’s too early to say what that might be right now but I’m forecasting 25%-30%, so you may want to start your core lineups lower than DJ’s $11.3K on DK if a player’s high ownership bothers you. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T10, 2019 – T9, 2018 – T16, 2017 – Won, and 2016 – 4th.
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K, FanDuel – $11.8K) – Rahm is always money in the bank but it’s not as much money as fantasy owners have wanted as he has yet to win this season despite having a co-runner-up finish and three T7’s, and his worst finish in seven starts is a T23. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T17 and 2019 – T9.
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K, FanDuel – $11.7K) – Thomas is coming off a T13 at the Phoenix Open, and before that he had six straight top 12 finishes including a co-runner-up, a 3rd, a 4th, and a T8. He’s consistently in the mix to win any given tournament but has yet to win this season so far – he had three wins last season and I expect him to start winning again soon, he’s just too good not to have at least a win or two every season. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – 2nd, 2018 – T9, 2017 – T39, and 2016 – T54.
The $9K Range
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K, FanDuel – $10.9K) – Finau still only has his solo PGA Tour win and that came at the subpar Puerto Rico Open back in 2016, but he’s getting closer and closer to winning again as he has co-runner-up finishes over his last two starts between the PGA and European Tour, was solo 4th three starts ago at The American Express, and has 5 top 10’s in nine starts so far this season. If he keeps playing like this he will hoist another trophy, he just has to put his weekend demons behind him and perform well in BOTH rounds 3 and 4 to notch his first significant win in his career. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T51, 2019 – T15, 2018 – T2, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – Cut.
Adam Scott (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K, FanDuel – $10.6K) – The defending champion is coming off his first top 10 of the season with a T10 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and has done no worse than T41. Scott has won this event twice in his career and while I don’t think he will pull down his third win this week, I do think he should do well enough to pay off his DFS salary numbers. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Won, 2019 – T7, 2018 – T53, 2017 – T11, and 2016 – T2.
The $8K Range
Bubba Watson (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K, FanDuel – $10.2K) – Three-time winner, Bubba Watson, is coming off his best finish since October with a T22 two weeks ago at the Phoenix Open – he also has two top 7’s to his name this season. Some of his most impressive stats this season include being 3rd in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 6th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 11th in strokes gained: approach the green, and 20th strokes gained: total. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T15, 2018 – Won, and 2016 – Won.
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K, FanDuel – $10.7K) – Hovland won four starts ago in Mexico at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, was co-runner-up in his most recent start on the PGA Tour at the Farmers Insurance Open, and had a T6 in his most recent start which came on the European Tour at the Saudi International two weeks ago. When his putter and approach are working then he tends to do quite well – everything is spot on right now. The only concern is that he hasn’t played in this tournament before, but his game plays well everywhere and he should be ready to rock and roll after getting in some practice rounds.
Joaquin Niemann (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K, FanDuel – $10.1K) – Niemann has been most impressive over his past two starts with a runner-up at the Tournament of Champions, and he was co-runner-up at the Sony Open a month ago. Outside of a T44, he has finished no worse than T23 this season in eight starts total. The majority of his stats are incredible to look at, and he’s an outstanding scorer too as he’s 2nd in birdie average and 5th in scoring average overall. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T44.
The $7K Range
Cameron Davis (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K, FanDuel – $9.3K) – Davis has been quite good over his past four starts with a solo 3rd at The American Express, he’s coming off a T14 last week, and has two other top 32’s during this stretch which started a month ago. The Aussie’s game just keeps getting better and better, and he’s an excellent value play this week as a result. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2019 – Cut.
Sergio Garcia (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K, FanDuel – $9.8K) – Since early October, Garcia has been quite good for most of his starts – he won the Sanderson Farms Championship, was T11 at the Tournament of Champions, and in his last two events, he was T6 and T12 on the European Tour. Sergio hasn’t really caught my eye for a long time, but he seems to be finding his sweet touch again and has become fantasy relevant once again. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T37, 2019 – T37, 2017 – T49, 2016 – Cut.
Carlos Ortiz (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K, FanDuel – $9.7K) – Ortiz has found another gear since winning the Houston Open back in November – he’s coming off a T4 at the Phoenix Open, was T8 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, and has finished no lower than T37 over his last seven starts. None of his stats are super-elite this season, but he’s 15th in eagle average and 22nd in birdie average, so he knows how to rack up the fantasy points for his owners. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T26 and 2019 – T9.
The $6K Range
Michael Thompson (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K, FanDuel – $8.0K) – This field is fantastic, but just like most weeks, the $6K range on DK once again is a bit underwhelming. There’s some decent talent in the cheap range but most of them have considerable risk attached to them. Thompson is one of my favorite plays in this range as he’s 8 for 10, had a T5 three starts ago, and outside of his sole missed cut in his last six starts – his worst finish is a T34 which came last week. Genesis Invitational finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T7.
Matthew NeSmith (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8.4K) – NeSmith is 2nd in greens in regulation percentage, 8th in strokes gained: approach the green, 20th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and 35th in strokes gained: total. Not bad stats at all for a guy in the $6K range on DK in a high-caliber field. He’s 7 for 11, has two top 10’s including a T7 two starts ago at the Phoenix Open, is coming off a T16 last week, and has five top 17’s. He’s a rookie this week, but don’t hold that against him.
Richy Werenski (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K, FanDuel – $7.7K) – Werenski has three top 24’s in his last five starts, has only missed a single cut in his last four starts, and is 7 for 11 overall. He makes his first start at this event this week, and while he’s not the safest play on the board, he’s one of the better options with upside in the $6K range on DK.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
The $10K+ Range
- Patrick Cantlay – T3
- Daniel Berger – Won
- Paul Casey – T5
The $9K Range
- Will Zalatoris – T55
- Cameron Davis – T14
- Francesco Molinari – 59th
The $8K Range
- Kevin Streelman – 13th
- Brian Harman – T39
- Matt Jones – T34
The $7K Range
- Bo Hoag – Cut
- Chris Kirk – T16
- Doug Ghim – T21
The $6K Range
- Davis Riley – Cut
- Ted Potter Jr. – Cut
- Chase Seiffert – Cut
