Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Take advantage of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Tour Championship, and try out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. All the best this week!
The Tour Championship
Recap from last week’s BMW Championship: We didn’t know exactly what we would be in for last week since the course was new to the PGA Tour, but we ended up with an exciting birdie-fest as some golf analysts predicted would happen with seven players shooting at least -20. Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau locked horns at -27 and it took six playoff holes but Cantlay walked away with a birdie on hole 18 to beat DeChambeau in a thriller – congrats to Patrick who now holds the top spot in the FedExCup standings with the victory!
Preview for the Tour Championship: The 2020-2021 PGA Tour season all comes down to this week as the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings qualify to play in the season’s final event, the Tour Championship, at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. The PGA Tour has regularly played its final tournament at East Lake since 2004, although the playoff format wasn’t introduced until 2007. Patrick Reed remains out so the field size is actually just 29 players – he is 30th in the FedExCup standings even despite missing both playoff events. Starting scores play a huge factor this week with Patrick Cantlay starting the tournament at -10 and down the line where the bottom-ranked players in the FedExCup standings begin the event at even par. Winners at the Tour Championship over the past five years include Dustin Johnson in 2020, Rory McIlroy in 2019, Tiger Woods in 2018, Xander Schauffele in 2017, and Rory McIlroy in 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $60M, the winner receives $15M and wins the FedExCup!
Course and key stats: East Lake Golf Club is 7,346 yards in length, is a par 70, and the greens are Bermuda. The winning score at the Tour Championship over the past decade ranges from -8 to -21, so weather certainly plays a big factor based on that wide range. The best score we have seen at the Tour Championship came in 2007 when Tiger Woods shot a -23 which won the tournament by a whopping 8 strokes. The winning score this week will likely be in the range of -12 to -20 depending on weather conditions and how they set up the track. Some of the core key stats to include in your custom models this week in order of importance are strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: around the green, strokes gained: putting, and strokes gained: tee to green – approach and off the tee are by far the most important though.
The field: Many of golf’s biggest names are playing this week outside of a few players who failed to get inside the top 30. There will be of course no cut to deal with this week, but the biggest challenge is figuring out how to value the 29 players based on their starting scores, and pricing is all over the place ranging from $5.0K to $13.4K. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A+.
Three questions I have about the Tour Championship this week:
1. Will Patrick Cantlay win? He starts at -10 par but will he be the victor after four rounds of golf – time will tell but he has a huge advantage – two better than his closest competitor which is Tony Finau at -8. McIlroy won two years ago when he started 5 strokes back, so it’s certainly possible we will see another big come-from-behind win again this year.
2. Who will move up the most? There are four players who are starting out at even par this week – Daniel Berger, Sergio Garcia, Billy Horschel, and Erik van Rooyen. You would think that Berger will move up the highest on the leaderboard this week since he is the best overall golfer in the group, but van Rooyen has been hot with a win, a T5, and a T7 over his past four events. One of these four players could finish in the top 10 and provide huge value since this players’ salary range is just $5.0K to $5.8K.
3. Who’s the best value play on the board? You really have to take salary numbers and starting scores into account this week as both have huge ranges. It’s hard to say who will end up being the best value when all is said and done but Sam Burns at $8.5K and starting at -4 seems like a solid play to me considering he was T8 last week, T21 at THE NORTHERN TRUST, and was runner-up at the WGC-FedEx St.Jude Invitational three starts ago, plus he can really quickly rack up the birdies.
Lineup construction strategy this week: It’s a tough week to sort out with the starting scores impacting everything, and the player salaries vary an incredible amount. I think I’ll likely be going in the hybrid direction as I usually do most every week, but will need to study things more as the week progresses. One thing’s for sure though, if you want a unique lineup in big GPPs, then be prepared to leave around $1,000 or more on the table and pay close attention to projected ownership numbers on Wednesday since some players will be likely 40%+ owned since there are only 30 players in action.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 12 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from four tiers on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance’s at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information and stats, also.
The $10K+ Range
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $13.4K) – Starting score: -10. Cantlay has the biggest advantage when it comes to starting score and it will be interesting to see if he can take advantage of it and win the tournament to take the gigantic $15M top prize. He is in this fortunate position since he won last week, he has two other wins on the season, and has been playing quite well since early June. He won last week since he gained an insane 14.5 strokes on the greens – he surely won’t do that again and will need to be better with his approach play and off the tee if he wants to win. If he didn’t start at -10 I likely wouldn’t have selected him this week, but he should place in the top 5 this week if he plays a solid all-around game like he often does. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T21, 2018 – T21, and 2017 – T20.
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $13.0K) – Starting score: -6. Rahm has five straight top 9 finishes including winning the U.S. Open in late June, and he would have won the Memorial Tournament if COVID-19 wasn’t part of our current existence, but unfortunately for Rahm it is and his mandatory withdrawal for testing positive cost him the win. He’s so statistically strong and could have won last week had his around the green game been stronger like it normally is as he lost 2.04 strokes in the stat category. He starts four strokes back of Cantlay, but he could close that gap in a hurry since he’s the best ball-striker in the world now, and that’s exactly the type of player who succeeds at East Lake. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T4, 2019 – T12, 2018 – T11, and 2017 – T7.
Bryson DeChambeau (Salary: DraftKings – $12.3K) – Starting score: -7. He’s the best off the tee player that the PGA Tour has and he can really use that to his advantage this week since it’s the second most important key stat that matters at East Lake. He lost in the big playoff last week to Cantlay to finish runner-up, finished T8 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational in early August, and has two wins on the season including the U.S. Open last September. If he rides another hot putter this week then he will fare very well this week – he gained 9.36 strokes on the field on the greens last week. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T22, 2019 – T12, and 2018 – T19.
$8K to $9.9K Range
Rory McIlroy (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – Starting score: -2. He’s typically higher in the FedExCup standings to have a more favorable starting position at the Tour Championship, but he has played extremely well on this course and should make some noise again this week. He finished T4 last week and gained in all major stat categories except for losing 0.25 strokes in approach, but assuming he rebounds there, he should be a factor this week to finish top 10. He won the Wells Fargo Championship in mid-May, has three top 7’s since then, and has won here twice in the last five years so you shouldn’t sleep on him this week. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T8, 2019 – Won, 2018 – T7, and 2016 – Won.
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – Starting score: -4. Burns is seeing East Lake for the first time, but don’t let that fact scare you off since he has been playing so well as of late, and recent form matters more than anything else. He had an 8th last week, finished T2 at the WGC event just three starts ago, he won the Valspar nine starts ago and finished runner-up directly after that win. He plays a fairly balanced game and if he can get his approach game back in fine shape for this week, then he should be a great mid-tier value play. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – Starting score: -2. Schauffele has the best finishes at this tournament over the past four years including his win four years ago, but he will need to be extra remarkable this year to keep his top 7 streak alive since he starts eight strokes back of the lead. He hasn’t been very impressive since winning the Olympic Mens Golf Competition in Japan, but he excels in small fields and could be saving his best for last this week. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T2, 2019 – 2nd, 2018 – T7, and 2017 – Won.
$6K to $7.9K Range
Sungjae Im (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – Starting score: -3. I haven’t been on Im too much this season, and for good reason, but I’m liking what I’m seeing from him lately when it comes to his ball-striking, and he gained over 6 strokes putting last week, so if the putter stays hot again this week he should move up the leaderboard from his starting position. He finished 3rd last week and had a T16 at THE NORTHERN TRUST, so his playoff events have been going superb for him so far and that could continue again this week. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T11 and 2019 – T19.
Brooks Koepka (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Starting score: -2. Koepka has lost his momentum since having four top 6’s in five events prior to the WGC event in early August. So why do I like him this week? Because he plays his best at the biggest events, and there’s a ton on the line this week with $60M in FedExCup money to be won, and he has been striking the ball well for quite some time now. If his approach game bounces back and he can find some strokes with the putter, then he can make up ground in a hurry. He finished T3 here two years ago as well, so he knows how to play this track. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T3, 2018 – T26, and 2017 – T6.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Starting score – 1. He hasn’t had the playoff that he originally envisioned so far, but did have three top 8’s in five events heading into the playoffs, so he always has the potential to finish well, especially in big tournaments including three straight top 8’s at the most recent majors. He has gained strokes in ball-striking in 17 straight tournaments that used shot tracker technology, and if only his putter heats up again then he should do well this week. He moved nicely up the leaderboard last year to finish 5th, and while he most likely won’t finish in the top 5 again this year, he can still deliver decent value to your lineups this week based on his low salary number. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – 5th.
The $5K Range
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $5.8K) – Starting score: Even par. We sure aren’t used to seeing $5K players on DK, but this week is the exception thanks to the starting stroke factor. Approach play is the most important key stat for success at East Lake, and Berger brings it in spades – in fact, he has gained strokes in 14 straight tournaments and it’s likely 15 since The Open Championship doesn’t have shot tracker tech in place and he finished 8th there. The only thing holding Berger back from success in the playoffs is his putter as he has lost 9 strokes between both of the playoff events, so far. Prior to the playoffs, he had three top 8’s in four starts, and you’re getting a heck of a player under $6K this week in Berger. Interestingly enough, he has three straight T15 finishes at this tournament, and if he finishes T15 once again, then you’re getting decent bang for your buck since he’s the 6th cheapest player this week. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T15, 2017 – T15, and 2016 – T15.
Erik van Rooyen (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Starting score: Even par. He’s the cheapest player on DK this week but yet has been one of the best so far in the playoffs with a 7th place finish at THE NORTHERN TRUST, he was 5th last week, and he won four starts ago at the Barracuda Championship which seemed to steer him in the right direction for the playoffs. He has been statistically strong throughout his bag over his past four tournaments played, and if that holds firm again this week then he could end up being one of the best value picks of the week. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Sergio Garcia (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – Starting score: Even par. He needed a high finish last week to get into the field this week and Garcia came through with a T6 at the BMW Championship to qualify for the season’s final event. His putter usually lets him down but he gained over 5 strokes with the flat stick last week, and gained almost 5 strokes ball-striking to earn him his high finish. Before getting cut at the first playoff event he had five straight top 26 finishes, and is an intriguing low-cost play this week. Tour Championship finishes over the last five years: 2017 – T10.
Results of the 15 players I picked for last week’s the BMW Championship
The 10K+ Range
- Jon Rahm – T9
- Justin Thomas – T22
- Xander Schauffele – T49
The $9K Range
- Cameron Smith – T34
- Tony Finau – T15
- Patrick Cantlay – Won
The $8K Range
- Corey Conners – T22
- Paul Casey – T38
- Harris English – T26
The $7K Range
- Shane Lowry – T26
- Russell Henley – T60
- Kevin Na – T17
The $6K Range
- Sebastian Munoz – T29
- Keith Mitchell – T57
- Talor Gooch – T57
