Last time, we broke down the Lions’ offense to find some redraft league sleepers on a weaker projected offense. Now, we’ll analyze the Texans offense that comes into the 2021 season with several question marks. One includes the quarterback situation given Deshaun Watson’s legal situation. The others involve the loss of Will Fuller with minimal additions to the wide receiver core plus the aging veteran in David Johnson.
We won’t focus on Watson’s quarterback situation since the passing offense takes a step down, with Tyrod Taylor leading the team. However, we’ll highlight the backfield and pass-catchers to see if we can uncover some sleepers on what looks like one of the weaker offenses. Should we avoid the entire Texans offense? Can David Johnson provide RB2 numbers in 2021? Is it a matter of time before Phillip Lindsay takes over? Is it worth drafting any other Texans pass-catcher? We plan to answer all of those questions and more while highlighting reasons for concern and optimism.
Should we avoid the entire Texans offense? Can David Johnson provide RB2 numbers in 2021? Is it a matter of time before Phillip Lindsay takes over? Is it worth drafting any other Texans pass-catcher? We plan to answer all of those questions and more while highlighting reasons for concern and optimism.
Texans Skill Players
Brandin Cooks looks like a value at wide receiver as WR44 per Underdog ADP. However, Cooks’ stock takes a hit if Tyrod Taylor is the Texans’ starting quarterback. As a starter with Buffalo in 2015-2017, Taylor ranked 7th amongst quarterbacks in fantasy points per game and 19th once. However, Taylor didn’t target any wide receiver more than 96 times. That one receiver was Sammy Watkins. Looking for the definition of consistency, then that involves Brandin Cooks.
Sure, it’s a different team and offense, but Cooks and the Texans’ pass-catchers may need to rely on efficiency if they lack the volume. There is a scenario where the Texans’ defense is awful, and they end up with a negative game script, meaning more passing. If that’s the case, I still expect the team to have a narrow target tree that includes Cooks, David Johnson, and Keke Coutee, Chris Conley, or Jordan Akins to a lesser extent. Even recently acquired Anthony Miller could flash some WR3 type weeks.
Can David Johnson Repeat as an RB2?
David Johnson (151.9 ADP – RB46)
Last season, the Texans fed David Johnson the rock with a 73.7% (No. 8) Opportunity Share with 160.4 (No. 26) Weighted Opportunities. He averaged 15 (No. 13) fantasy points per game while ranking inside the top-24 in rushing (No. 21) and receiving yards (No. 16).
Johnson will turn 30 years old during the 2021 season, but he finished with some intriguing metrics last year. He earned an 11.2% (No. 17) target share while averaging 9.5 (No. 1) yards per reception and 5.6 (No. 8) yards per touch amongst running backs. Johnson also ranked 8th with a 6.1% Breakaway Run Rate. All solid efficiency metrics for an older running back.
I’ve faded David Johnson in 2021, but some interesting 2020 data.
🤔15.0 (No. 13) PPG
👀5.6 (No. 8) Yards Per Touch
🙀9.5 (No. 1) Yards Per Reception
🚀6.1% (No. 8) Breakaway Run Rate
If he relies on volume again in 2021, will he perform as an RB2 in 2021? #FantasyFootball— Corbin (@corbin_young21) July 25, 2021
However, relying on an older running back presents us with risks. That said, Phillip Lindsay is a running back to target in the later rounds as RB49 with a 163 ADP per Underdog ADP. The Broncos gave Melvin Gordon most of the opportunities, so Lindsay lacked opportunity and production. After back-to-back 1,000 rushing seasons for Lindsay with a healthy 47.5 targets per season, he took a backseat.
In two games last season and Gordon missed one, Lindsay averaged over 91 total yards on 19.5 rushing attempts. In both of those games, Lindsay didn’t earn a target. That is a bit odd since he showed that ability in 2018 and 2019. One stat to hold on hope for Lindsay to seize opportunities in 2021 includes his 6.8% (No. 5) Breakaway Run Rate.
Other Texans’ Pass-Catchers
Unless it’s a deep league or a league with several flex spots like the Scott Fish Bowl, try to avoid Keke Coutee, Chris Conley, and Anthony Miller. All receivers have flashed in minor spurts from time to time.
Keke Coutee (215.3 ADP – WR109)
Back in Keke Coutee‘s rookie season, he flashed a couple of WR2 weeks but missed time due to injuries throughout his career. Some of the injuries include a hamstring strain that lingered for several months in 2018 then an ankle sprain in 2019. It’s a limited sample, but Coutee averaged 10 (No. 13) yards per target and 2.12 (No. 17) fantasy points per target last season.
Chris Conley (215.4 ADP – WR111)
Meanwhile, Chris Conley came into the NFL with speed and explosiveness, evidenced by a 120.6 (98th-percentile) Speed Score and 146.0 (99th-percentile) Burst Score. Unfortunately, Conley didn’t typically serve as a top option on his respective offenses. In 2019, Conley’s 1,260 Air Yards ranked 26th amongst qualified receivers.
Anthony Miller (215.6 ADP – WR115)
With Anthony Miller, he boasted near-elite workout metrics. Miller came in with a 128.8 (85th-percentile) Burst Score and 10.91 (85th-percentile) Agility Score. Even Miller’s 39.9% (81st-percentile) College Dominator and 30.4% (91st-percentile) college target share looked solid though we don’t like the 21.9 (17th-percentile) Breakout Age. Even the RotoViz Prospect Box Score Scouting Tool had two similar comparisons of Jarvis Landry and Keenan Allen.
We often heard reports about Anthony Miller and the Bears coaching staff had some issues relating to maturity. So maybe the change of scenery will help Miller. I’m still hopeful for Miller to have a late breakout like DeVante Parker, but we know that’s a rare opportunity or unlikely outcome.
The one wildcard in the Texans offense involves the third-round rookie Nico Collins. He performed well in the workout metrics with a 109.2 (89th-percentile) Speed Score and 126.3 (77th-percentile) Burst Score. Collins also boasted a 19.5 (78th-percentile) Breakout Age yet a 27.3% (44th-percentile) College Dominator. Like Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions, Collins could turn heads in camp and early in the season. That could earn him snaps and opportunities. Interestingly, Collins is the second receiver drafted on the Texans as WR90 at pick 201.2.
Which Texans Skills Players Should We Draft?
For the Texans, David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay should be the priority. In a zero-RB type build, Lindsay is a running back to target later in drafts. Lindsay may have some stand-alone value, although it’s likely a limited role. Johnson flashed some efficiency even at 29 years of age. Outside of Brandin Cooks, the other Texans’ wide receivers seem like dart throws. However, one or two receivers likely earn a healthy target share given the likelihood of a negative game script and the need for a third or fourth option in the passing game.
Tell Me More About Nico Collins
Nico Collins developed and ascended year-to-year during his tenure at the University of Michigan, earning the team’s Most Improved Player award in 2018 and then winning Michigan’s Offensive Player of the Year award in 2019 due to a 16.6 yard per reception average. He will be the Texans’ biggest wide receiver by a sizable margin, as Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and Anthony Miller are all under six feet. Collins has ridiculously elite speed for a player his size and will be a matchup nightmare for smaller cornerbacks, as he stands 6’4″ and weighs in at 215 pounds. Collins’ physicality and ability to win jump-ball throws will be a massive asset for whoever ends up winning the quarterback battle in Houston, meaning the value. Read more about Nico Collins in a featured article on him written by Matthew Mackay called: Nico Collins Could be a Target Machine in 2021
