NHL Single Entry Strategy
NHL DFS, while growing, is still one of the lesser-played DFS games but of all the DFS games available it is also one of the more fun games to play. NHL strategy for 20+ entry games is pretty easy to nail down, as we’re mainly pairing full lines from two different teams in those builds. As simple as that sounds, we still need to find the right two lines to pair together and get the defensemen and goalie right to hit the top of the leader-boards. Over the past 5 years, I have mainly been a 20+ entry player but over the past couple of years, I have been shifting my gameplay toward Single Entry contests, in all sports. Single entry requires a slightly different thought process and a willingness to be wrong (lose money) and not let it affect your process for the next game (unless you are always losing, then you need to re-evaluate your process). My idea here is to explore some strategies to help create or fine-tune the single entry process for NHL DFS.
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Risk Management
Also known as Bankroll Management, is the idea that we don’t want to risk all or most of our bankroll on one slate or day. What we want to do is risk a low percentage of our bankroll as single entry players because we’re not going to win every night. We have to risk an amount that allows us multiple nights of play to hit the highs on the leaderboards. For example, if your account has $200 in it, your risk should allow you to play 20 games (preferably more) with the risk of losing all of them before going broke, which would be 10% of the original $200 per slate/day. My strategy is to risk 2-5% of my bankroll depending on the slate. That 2% does not mean I’m playing $4 every slate if my account started with $200. Instead, I am playing 2%-5% of my account balance as of that day. The range of 2% to 5% has to do with whether I am playing multiple start times or just the main slate and also depends on how confident I am in the slate.
Slate Confidence
Slate confidence is developed when you have a good idea of how teams play and is based on the matchups for the slate. This can be regional knowledge as a viewer, based on data and projections, or a blend of both. Since I am based on the west coast, I see a lot of Pacific/Western division hockey and know how those teams tend to play each other. I have a good understanding of the player’s strengths and weaknesses for this group of teams. This leads me to build lines that tend to have some regional bias, which is not necessarily a bad thing. It can be an edge because most DFS players like to look for the late-night hammer plays which tend to be the group that’s in my wheel-house. It also means I like to look for contests that are off of the main slate where I can maximize my edge and play slates that have a robust western conference lineup of games. Researching the slate is important but even more important is checking warmup lines and starting goalies so that you’re not stuck with a 0 at goalie or miss out on a line change that either scratches one of your skaters or puts a value guy on the top line and allows you to reconstruct the build to take advantage of the value opportunity. Best practice is to check morning skate lines on Twitter or Left Wing Lock, then check again 20 minutes before the puck drops in every game. We want to check every game because of the opportunity to find value, not just for a line change we want to use an offensive piece from, but to see when a team is weakened by injury so we can pick on that team with our builds. I keep a list of NHL resources on Twitter that tweet out morning skate lines as well as pregame line-rushes. It would be a good idea to make a similar list for yourself or follow that one.
Contest Selection
Contest selection is crucial so that we can preserve our capital and continue to play without having to redeposit. Since we’re looking at Single Entry games here we should start to look for games with smaller fields, lower rake, and a pay structure that we like. Usually, the more expensive the buy-in for the contest, there will be a lower rake and field size is reduced. If you’re unable to get to these games within your risk management plan, then the $5 and under Single Entry games are the way to go until you grow your bankroll. As that bankroll grows, start looking for smaller fields. Another idea for finding smaller fields is to play the smaller slates. There are three advantages to this 1) we can find the smaller field games, 2) we can find slates that play to our edge, and 3) there are usually fewer sharks on these alternate slates. Playing the alternate slates is a good way to build our bankroll.
Add some 50/50 and multiplier games to your daily portfolio when you can afford it. NHL is a high variance game and often you find people entering their cash lineups into these contests. If that is true, then why not enter your Single Entry build into some cash games to ladder into the slate? GPP Tournaments tend to pay out in the low-20% range making a GPP only strategy a bit riskier than hedging with some 50% and 30% payout contests. If your build hits the top-20%, then you’re cashing across the board. If not, then hopefully it’s cashing in the 30-50% contests.
Single Entry
Building for single entry is a bit different than multi-entry. Everyone has their own strategy ideas for Single Entry, some include 1) finding the value plays first then filling in with studs, 2) playing based on projections and optimizers (which Fantasy Data has here), and/or 3) hand-building using an altered version of the multi-entry strategy. Given that the first two strategies are self-explanatory, I will cover the third strategy in more detail, as it is also the strategy I prefer to use. Multi-entry NHL contests are usually won by combining the 3 forwards from two different teams to create a “double stack” build. Often these lines are built through an optimizer where the user selects which lines they want to use for the night and the optimizer churns out the combos that fit salary constraints. Sometimes the user may leave a skater off of one of the lines and swap them for the defenseman who skates with the forwards on the power play. Taking these ideas into account, what we can do is still find two lines we like the most for the night, then make some adjustments that add a third line. The “double stack” idea is great for multi-entry because it requires the build to only have to get 2 things right for it to succeed.
In Single Entry, we want to continue to minimize the number of things we need to get right but playing a strict “double stack” also means we have a greater chance to fail because we don’t have multiple stacks using one line with another to support a failed double stack. For example, in multi-entry, we can stack COL1 with as many lines that we like and that fit the salary constraints. If COL1 is the top line for the night, multi-entry gives several chances to hit by combining them with a bunch of other lines. So when COL1 is half right but the winning pairing is COL1 and ANA3, well not many people are going to enter that build into a single entry contest if ANA3 is in a bad matchup or is just not playing well together. But let’s say playing ANA3 is one of our edge plays because we know they do match up well in a perceived bad matchup and we want to play them. Cool, but the likelihood of all three guys on ANA3 hitting is not an ideal risk to take. Instead, modify the build to take parts of COL1, parts of ANA3, and then find another team’s line to fill in the open spots. There are two examples below of this strategy that I have recently used. You’ll see one full line stack mixed with parts of two other team stacks. This can be done using any combination of forwards and defensemen and can include a mini game-stack by bringing back one player from the other team if you’re using 2 players from their opponent. This is another way to have to get less right if we’re betting on a game to be high scoring and get exposure to both sides. You will also notice the defensemen on both of these builds get power-play ice time. Power-play ice time is important because it can expose you to a team’s best players without having to roster them.
As you can see, fitting lines together often requires us to hunt for value plays. As a Sharks fan, I had an edge to know that SJS1 was starting to jell and that Couture and Donato’s play had become more aggressive the game before and Labanc is a shooter by nature. They all play on the top line and all get power-play ice time. An additional edge I had with that line was knowing how well Hertl’s line was playing coming into the game and that they would be the primary focus of any defensive line changes by Colorado, thus shifting my attention to the Sharks next best line, which was also a value stack based on their ice time and shooting numbers. This brings up the point of what to look for when deciding on lines to play.
When we are researching the slate we need to look at which players get the most ice time, shoot the most, and who is on the power play units that get the highest percentage of ice time. Morning skate will tell us what the projected lines for the slate will be, then we can use the “Line Combinations” tool on Left Wing Lock to view projected and recent power-play combinations. When selecting to view power-play line combos by most recent games it will show the percentage of power-play ice time each unit skated. Since a power-play gives the offense a man advantage I look at which teams draw the most penalties and which teams take the most penalties and try to find a good blend between the two. This will either give me an obvious top line to work with or it will uncover a potential value play/stack. Other things to consider while building lines will be the opposing goalie’s save percentage, injuries to opposing defensemen to pick on, cheap defensemen with power-play exposure, starting goalies against teams with high shot rates but low shot percentages, and finding players/lines that are hitting stride. Things to avoid are weird new line pairings with skaters that are unfamiliar playing together, top lines on the road against strong defensive teams, and goalies that play behind bad or weakened defenses.
Conclusion
In summation, if we’re currently playing Single Entry games and need a boost, or are thinking of switching to playing a heavier amount of Single Entry games I hope this article helps. NHL is a nuanced DFS game, especially if we’re reducing the number of lineups we’re firing out each night. However, one of the nice things about Single Entry is you don’t have to get the entire lineup exactly right like we would have to in multi-entry games. Some of this article may seem esoteric if you are newer to NHL DFS. If that is the case and you would like further explanation or just to talk strategy, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @majesstik1 or check out this Complete Guide to DFS Hockey I wrote a couple of years ago. Also, don’t forget to explore the tools Fantasy Data has for NHL, which includes downloadable NHL Projections and an NHL Optimizer.
