DFS Strategy: Finding Patterns In PGA Player Results

PGA Daily Fantasy Tips

If you are a regular fantasy sports junkie of the PGA Tour like me, then you likely know how challenging it is to win on a weekly basis and especially over the long-term as golfers results can fluctuate immensely from tournament to tournament. I’ve been playing in DFS golf contests for 7 years or so now and while it hasn’t gotten much easier to win in them, recently I’ve been analyzing tournament logs to see if there are patterns from one player’s results to the next, and I wanted to share some of those insights below. Results have been referenced from PGATour.com.

From Win To Disappointment 

One thing I’ve been noticing more and more is when a player wins a tournament he then follows it up with a bad result in his next start. Looking at the last 12 PGA Tour tournament winners – Nate Lashley, Chez Reavie, Gary Woodland, Rory McIlory, Patrick Cantlay, Kevin Na, Brooks Koepka, Kang Sung-hoon, Max Homa, Pan Cheng-Tsung, Tiger Woods, and Corey Conners, their results post-win are as follows below. 

• Nate Lashley – Missed the cut
• Chez Reavie – Missed the cut
• Gary Woodland – Missed the cut
• Rory McIlory – T9th
• Patrick Cantlay – T21st
• Kevin Na – Missed the cut
• Brooks Koepka – T50th
• Kang Sung-hoon – 7th
• Max Homa – T64th
• Pan Cheng-Tsung – Missed the cut
• Tiger Woods – Missed the cut
• Corey Conners – T46th

Half of the golfers missed the cut after their win, 25% were 46th or worse, and two were top 10 finishers. Looking at this data should be a signal to be wary of golfers after they won in their previous start. Four possible theories as to why bad results happen after a win – A.) they cashed over a million-dollar check and are less financially motivated for their next tournament, B.) they practiced and trained less leading up to their next event, C.) the “golf gods” weren’t on their side after a win and wanted to share the wealth, or D.) it’s purely a coincidence.

Runner Up Finishers Next Result

I was fascinated to see how the runner up finishers did in their next start so I looked at the last 12 players who finished 2nd to see what those results looked like, and they are below. 25% missed the cut, five finished in the top 30, three or maybe four (depending on Bradley’s finish today) finished 41st or worse, and just one top 10 finish. Clearly, the runner up finishers were better at making the cut than the winners above, and their results, for the most part, were tangibly better as well.

• Doc Redman – Missed the cut
• Zack Sucher – Missed the cut
• Keegan Bradley – currently T55th in round 4 of the 3M Open
• Brooks Koepka – T57th
• Shane Lowry – T28th
• Webb Simpson – T16th
• Adam Scott – T7th
• Tony Finau – Missed the cut
• Dustin Johnson – T20th
• Matt Every – T17th
• Scott Piercy – T41st
• Joel Dahmen – T71st

Week Before or After a Major

I’m not going to include any data to back up this point, but I’ve heard from many golf analysts and professional fantasy players that the players who compete in the tournament either the week before or after a major tournament tend to have more unpredictable results than an average week, either on the positive or negative end of the spectrum. Many DFS professionals tend to wager less money in these tournaments since the variance is even higher than a “normal” event, and wager a higher amount of money for major tournaments as the results tend to be a bit more predictable by using their projection models, and understanding how each major typically sets up with regards to the course.

Notable Result Patterns From Player to Player

I have noticed patterns in results from many players, and there are a few different ones I’ve spotted including players making the cut then missing it in their next start, followed by another cut made then missing it again, and on and on. I’ve seen players who will get three or four top 10’s in a row but then miss the cut the next three or four tournaments they are part of. Some players have amazing results at specific tournaments from year to year and some players always seem to miss the cut at certain events – making me wonder why they don’t just save their time and money and stay home to practice instead. Some players play better earlier in the PGA Tour season during the fall and winter months versus in the spring and summer, and vice versa for other players. Some players really amp up their game at majors but have average finishes outside of major tourneys – Brooks Koepka comes to mind.

Some result patterns can’t be taken too seriously but some are legit and your DFS lineups should at times reflect to include or exclude players based on their patterns. I have of course built DFS lineups based on pattern analysis and done very poorly, and sometimes do extremely well, so DFS results can go either way. You should really focus on recent results, past tournament results, and align player stats with key stats that matter on any given course, but train your brain to identify result patterns as well and factor this element in when you feel confident about them. At the very least, result patterns is another piece of data that can be used when constructing DFS lineups. Be sure to also evaluate player results post-tournament to see if that pattern held up or if it veered in a different direction.

• See FantasyData’s PGA Projections Here