Fantasy Football Preseason ADP Risers
Talk to a dozen football fans about their thoughts on the preseason—whether it’s necessary, useful, holds any entertainment value, anything else you’d like to ask—and you’ll get twelve different responses. Ultimately, we all have our eyes on September 5th, the day the games that count begin.
But until then, there’s time for plenty of fantasy drafts, right? While predicting the guys who will have their ADPs rise (i.e. be drafted earlier, therefore becoming more expensive in terms of draft capital) doesn’t seem like the most practical task on the surface, it’s a great way to highlight potential options to draft now ahead of their respective spikes. In addition, with risers must come fallers as well, so it’s a good demonstration of our ability to forecast the industry’s responses to player performance, injuries, and more.
The hype might not always be warranted, yet there’s no arguing its impact—let’s take a look at seven players whose ADP will rise in the weeks to come:
1. Kyler Murray (ADP: 92.3, QB9)
Rookies are the most obvious candidates to garner preseason attention, and we’d be remiss to look any further than the #1 pick in this year’s draft. 16-year veteran Larry Fitzgerald has said that he’s “never seen a quarterback come in so quickly and be able to command an offense,” and as Kliff Kingsbury’s up-tempo approach shows off its potential against vanilla defenses, Murray’s going to be deservedly touted as a second-tier QB option in fantasy.
Currently being drafted as the QB9 with an ADP of 92.3, Murray could easily rise above Carson Wentz and Drew Brees in drafts as the preseason rolls along.
2. Kerryon Johnson (ADP: 36.4, RB18)
Johnson’s draft position has started to account for the release of Theo Riddick and his 74 RB targets freed up in turn, but that’s only the start of his movement. The only question with Kerryon is volume (his 0.89 fantasy points/opportunity tied for 14th among RBs in 2018 and would’ve ranked 7th in 2017); with more work in the passing game and a run-first coordinator in Darrell Bevell, Johnson should pair solid volume with stellar efficiency to garner consideration as a fringe RB1 as he improves on rookie season (see table below.)
| RUSHING | RECEIVING | FANTASY POINTS | ||||||||
| ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD | P/ATT | P/TGT | P/OPP |
| 118 | 641 | 5.4 | 3 | 39 | 32 | 213 | 1 | 1.18 | 3.57 | 0.89 |
His upside might not be quite as high as Aaron Jones or Leonard Fournette, but a better floor will attract drafters as Johnson moves into the 3rd round.
3. Justin Jackson (ADP: 145.4, RB54)
Holdouts are challenging to make sense of, but I get the feeling that Melvin Gordon is serious about missing time. Gordon might return by Week 1 (or at some point during the season), which certainly changes the game here; as far as projecting ADP, however, Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler are only going to become more popular the longer that Gordon is away from the team. Thus far, Jackson’s chances look promising:
Justin Jackson, a 2018 Chargers 7th-round pick, will get a “ton of reps” with Melvin Gordon holding out, per @MikeSilver. Anthony Lynn, a RBs coach for 10+ years, is looking for “big things” from Jackson https://t.co/Z2TxbdMXne
— Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) July 23, 2019
As one of just nine players in NCAA history to have four seasons with 1,000 rushing yards in addition to amassing 1,110 total carries during his collegiate career at Northwestern, Jackson’s suited surprisingly well to fill much of the ground work for the Chargers as long as necessary. If you think Gordon is going to miss any of the regular season (and even if you don’t, somebody in your draft will), Jackson should be picked far earlier than his current selection spot at RB54.
4. Kalen Ballage (ADP: 148.3, RB55)
I had one central takeaway from last season: don’t trust coaches (especially bad ones) to come to the same conclusion as you, even if it feels logical and obvious. The underutilization of Aaron Jones by Mike McCarthy and lack of receiving work for David Johnson provided just two of those many illustrations.
Personally, I think Kenyan Drake is a better player than Kalen Ballage. Guess who doesn’t decide which player gets touches in Miami, though—me. With Ballage currently the starter in camp, and Drake likely on his way out after this season, this backfield might be heading toward an emulation of the team its new coaching staff comes from: the weekly RB roulette of New England. Things will continue to evolve before the season starts, yet the initial showing is likely to make Ballage’s price rise with Drake’s slipping down in response.
5. Christian Kirk (ADP: 76.1, WR32)
Yes, I’m double-dipping with Arizona, which is my way of saying you really should be paying attention to this Cardinals offense. I’ve been talking about Christian Kirk for months now; here’s what I wrote about him in my rankings a month ago, at which time I had him around 10 spots above the expert consensus: He’s not exactly hidden right now, but come August, Kirk’s going to get a lot more attention and be sought after as the masses catch up and we hear about his development. The sooner you can get shares, the better.
Take a look at the calendar—the attention is coming. Kirk’s being drafted as a top-30 WR in high stakes leagues already, and the Murray to Kirk highlights are just getting started. We’re no longer talking about a “sleeper”—Kirk is known, and he’s a good pick.
6. Parris Campbell (ADP: 136.1, WR54)
Campbell’s ultimate production might be tied more to Jack Doyle than you think (if Doyle is healthy, the Colts will run more 12 personnel, meaning Campbell could be the WR left off the field as T.Y. Hilton and Devin Funchess get snaps.) However, Doyle is currently hurt, Indianapolis will want to find out what they have in their 2nd-round receiver during the preseason, and the Ohio State alum is an electric player anytime he touches the ball.
Not often a guy creates this amount of separation in this part of the field.
Hello, Parris Campbell. pic.twitter.com/OpC4HxydM7
— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) July 28, 2019
The Colts might have a crowded array of weaponry, yet as a talented rookie on a budding offense, Campbell will get deserved attention to move him into the top 50 WRs taken in drafts.
7. Darren Waller (ADP: 294, TE25)
If you see Darren Waller play and think you’re looking at a WR playing TE, it’s not an illusion—that’s basically what he is. And a 6’6″, 255 TE who runs a 4.46 warrants consideration, especially when he costs absolutely nothing.
If you haven’t read up on Darren Waller’s story — from being suspended multiple times (the latter for an entire season) to his position switch to TE — you ought to do so. Going to be a legitimate option in Oakland and is still flying under the radar.
— PeterJaguars (@PeterJaguars) July 30, 2019
Waller appears all but locked into the starting role in Oakland, and with Antonio Brown attracting the focus of defenses, athletic mismatches will present through single coverage over the middle of the field for Waller. Buzz is on its way as Derek Carr links up with him during the preseason, and there should be more fireworks to come for Waller in September and beyond.
