Mock Draft Monday
With the NFL Combine in our rearview, it’s time to take another look at the upcoming NFL Draft. There are still players who are certain to go in the first round of the draft regardless of how they did at the combine or if they participated at all. There are others, however, who had a lot riding on the combine and, depending on how things went, either helped or hurt their draft stock. We also have more of the offseason to draw from to make any predictions regarding pre-draft or draft-day trades and to have a better general feel of where teams are leaning when it comes to their various needs. Predicting what NFL teams will do come draft time is never anything more than a guessing game, but as it draws nearer it does become progressively easier to guess right, or at least closer than those guesses would’ve been a month or two ago. With that in mind here is how I think things could play out.
Round 1
Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
This is a change from how I perceived things previously. There are still conflicting reports on what direction the Bears will go in, but most of the reports now have them staying at No. 1 and trading Justin Fields. If that is what happens then the Bears will draft Williams with that pick. His elite athletic ability and off-script playmaking make him the consensus No. 1 pick. There’s a chance the Bears shock the world and draft someone else at No. 1 like UNC’s Drake Maye or even LSU’s Jayden Daniels, but I don’t see that happening. After trading the overall No. 1 pick away last year I don’t think they’ll get cute with it this time around. Williams will be the pick.
Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
This is another change for me. I am leaning toward the Commanders favoring the LSU prospect over UNC’s Drake Maye, although it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Commanders took Maye here. It will ultimately come down to who fits better in Kliff Kingsbury’s system, and as a dual-threat QB with five years of college experience, Daniels could thrive under Kingsbury. Daniels also allows for more creativity in the play calling and will help keep defenses honest which should open things up for an underrated receiving group. But whether it’s Daniels or Maye, the one sure thing is the Commanders will be looking for their franchise QB at No. 2.
New England Patriots – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
There is the chance that the Patriots decide to get a true No. 1 wide receiver here and select either LSU’s Malik Nabers or Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., but they still need an answer at the most important position in football, so in the end, that’s the direction they’ll go. With that decision made it will come down to who the Bears and Commanders choose before them, but if Williams and Daniels are off the board then Maye becomes the no-brainer with the third pick. He is the type of pocket passer the Patriots historically like. While new head coach Jerod Mayo may want to shake things up, after Maye it could get pretty dicey so I think he’ll go with the safe choice. If Maye goes right before him, then it will be Daniels. But securing their franchise QB here will open things up to them later and allow them to build the draft around him.
Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Some reports are coming out claiming that LSU’s Malik Nabers has leapfrogged Harrison Jr. and will be the first wide receiver taken in this year’s draft. While that could certainly be the case, I’m sticking with Harrison Jr. as the pick for the Cardinals. With the Cardinals tied to Murray for the foreseeable future, they will be looking to get him weapons which will include a WR1 replacement for free agent Marquise Brown. From a talent standpoint, both Harrison Jr. and Nabers would be an immediate upgrade from Brown, but Harrison Jr. brings a safer floor and a potentially higher ceiling. There is a chance that GM Ossenfort goes off script and selects Nabers here, but I think, in the end, he’ll stick with the consensus.
Minnesota Vikings (from the Los Angeles Chargers) – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
With the fifth pick in this year’s draft, we get our first trade as Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers trade down with the Vikings for additional compensation, allowing the Vikings to choose Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy as their QB of the future. This is, of course, predicated on the idea that free agent Kirk Cousins lands in Atlanta. Michigans’ J.J. McCarthy is a great fit for the Vikings and will not cause offensive coordinator Wes Phillips to change up the game plan too much. McCarthy is highly accurate and tends to attack the middle of the field. These are qualities the Vikings value in their signal caller and while there is some risk to trading up to grab him, if, as is believed, Minnesota wants to move on from Cousins, this makes sense.
New York Giants – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
I can envision a scenario where the Giants select a QB at this spot and develop him for a year while riding out another year with Daniel Jones, but with several QBs already selected, pivoting to the offensive line makes more sense. This was a clear weakness for New York in 2023 with the league’s second-worst pass-blocking grade. So even though New York has several needs, OL has to be at the top of the list. Choosing Notre Dame’s Joe Alt could make an immediate impact. Alt was the second-highest graded pass blocker in 2023 and was a beast at the NFL combine. Alt is currently the consensus top offensive tackle in this year’s draft and has the talent and pedigree to be a franchise cornerstone offensive tackle.
Tennessee Titans – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The odds still have Marvin Harrison Jr. as the first wide receiver off the board in 2024. If the Cardinals choose to pass on Harrison Jr. and he makes it to this point in the draft then the Titans would not hesitate to draft him. But the more likely outcome is that it is Nabers, not Harrison Jr. who is available to the Titans at pick seven. The Titans seem invested in Will Levis and need reliable offensive weapons to help develop him. As one of the top wide receivers in this year’s draft, Nabers would fit right in with the Titans. Plus, he has the confidence to succeed at the next level, calling himself the best wide receiver in the draft. Whether that’s true or not remains to be seen, but Nabers plays with sustained intensity and can be moved all over the field finding success on the outside and in the slot. That versatility will be hard to pass up.
Atlanta Falcons – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Free agency has the potential to be devastating to the Falcons’ coverage unit over the next two years. Cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Tre Flowers are free agents this year and A.J. Terrell and Mike Hughes will hit free agency in 2025, making cornerback a position of need, especially for a unit that ranked in the bottom-10 last season. Alabama’s Terrion Arnold could fill that need nicely. Arnold finished 2023 as the 4th-highest graded CB in the class, with the No. 1 grade in run defense. With Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell also available here the Falcons could go that route. Arnold and Mitchell are duking it out for CB1 status, but I’ll give the slight edge to Arnold.
Chicago Bears – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles will continue to improve on the offensive side of the ball by giving newly acquired franchise QB Caleb Williams another weapon. Behind WR1 D.J. Moore there isn’t much to inspire confidence. TE Cole Kmet is a solid weapon in the middle of the field and Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson should be able to lead a better-than-average run game, but upgrades are needed. Washington’s Rome Odunze often gets left out of the “best WR in the draft class” conversation, but he should not be overlooked. Odunze is known for an amazing work ethic and a career that has been highlighted by constant and consistent improvement. He could be the perfect complement to Moore and the combination of Williams and Odunze could be a franchise-altering combination.
New York Jets – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
This is one of the easiest predictions in this year’s draft. Whoever is the top tackle remaining on the draft board will be the selection for the Jets. They could also address the position in free agency but that would be more of a short-term fix and would not alter their pick here. Aaron Rodgers is not getting any younger and they will do anything they can to protect him after losing him early in the 2023 season. Fuaga was the second-highest graded tackle in 2023 and has the skills to start on Day 1 for a unit that proved incapable of slowing down opposing defenses, regardless of the opponent.
Los Angeles Chargers (from the Minnesota Vikings)- JC Latham, OT, Alabama
If the Chargers keep the No. 5 pick they will go a different direction, but in trading that away to the Vikings they can get some additional assets and still get a solid right tackle to solidify their offensive line and protect Justin Herbert. After being the second-highest rated pass blocker in 2022, Latham did appear to take a slight step back. But with Alabama pedigree, he still comes with a high floor and the talent to slot in seamlessly into the starting lineup on day one. There’s the possibility they decide to set their sight on the best wide receiver left. Their current WR room includes either aging or unproven players, but in this range, Latham brings much more value than any of the remaining WRs.
Denver Broncos – Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Now that the Broncos have officially released Russell Wilson the team could go in two different directions to address the QB position. They can either address the position before the draft via free agency or a trade or they can take a chance on a rookie QB. While the possibility of them trading for Fields or signing Cousins is not out of the question it makes more sense to target a rookie signal caller. Nix may not seem like an obvious choice to be that signal caller but Nix is a solid athlete with great arm strength and could be the perfect fit for the Broncos’ system. Plus, with an accuracy profile similar to that of Drew Brees, Nix could be just the type of QB Sean Payton can invest in.
Las Vegas Raiders – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Depending on what happens this offseason in free agency the Raiders may look to move up in the draft to get somebody in the top 10. However, for the sake of this mock draft, the Raiders address the most important position later and set their sights on improving their defense by drafting one of the quickest risers throughout the pre-draft process after putting his freakish athletic ability on display during the NFL Combine. Mitchell has finished as the highest-graded cornerback in back-to-back seasons. With a unit that was middle-of-the-pack in 2023, the Raiders could use the help.
New Orleans Saints – Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
The Saints find themselves with several needs but with their first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, I think they’ll focus on improving their defense. At this point in the draft, there will be several quality players available, but the best among them may be Florida State’s Jared Verse. At first glance, Verse may not come across as the most exciting selection, but Verse boasted the 4th most pressures in the nation last season, with 11 sacks. Verse may not look like the prototypical game-changing presence, but it’s impossible to imagine a scenario in which he doesn’t develop into a solid starting-caliber player, helping out against both the pass and run
Indianapolis Colts – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Georgia TE Brock Bowers is the clear-cut cream of the crop at TE in this year’s draft class. But he might even be better than that, as many consider Bowers to be the greatest college football tight end of all time. As a true freshman, in 2021, it didn’t take Bowers long to break out, posting 13 TDs and 882 receiving yards. The Colts currently have exactly zero difference-makers at the tight end position, which was made glaringly apparent by their deploying three and even four tight ends throughout the season. The reality is that based on talent Bowers should not fall this far, but only nine tight ends have been selected in the first round of the NFL draft, and of those, only three have gone in the top-10. Bowers would be a starter right out of the gate and would immediately make this offense better.
Seattle Seahawks – Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
The 2024 version of the Seahawks could look a bit different from the 2023 version. Mike Macdonald is the new head coach, and there’s certainly a possibility that his defensive background could push the team in that direction with their first pick. Alabama’s Dallas Turner will be NFL-ready on day one having played in Nick Saban’s defense, which will help him get on the field and make an impact for Seattle’s defensive line. At 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, Turner looked phenomenal at the NFL Combine with a 4.46-second 40-time and a 40.5-inch vertical. Given his performance, Turner may be gone by pick 16, but if he isn’t I don’t see the Seahawks letting him pass them by.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Finishing last season with a 9-8 record in the fairly weak AFC South the Jaguars have a lot of needs. But with a top-10 passing offense and a bottom-10 passing defense it would make the most sense for the Jaguars to focus on defense in round 1. Nate Wiggins doesn’t come without his risks. Many may be concerned by his overall size, but his speed and length make up for it. He also allowed a 44.4 passer rating in coverage in 2023 and ran a 4.29 in the 40-yard dash and a 1.59 in the 10-yard split before exiting with an injury. The injury is expected to be a minor hip flexor and it already looks as if he’ll be ready for Clemson’s Pro Day on April 6th. He isn’t a player that will single-handedly fix what’s broken, but selecting Wiggins will be a good first step.
Cincinnati Bengals – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Penn State’s Fashanu did potential suitors a favor by staying in school this past season. Had he left school last season he was likely to be a top-10 pick, but by staying another year he has put himself amongst a much deeper group of tackles allowing him to fall further and be great value for any team that drafts him. I believe that team will be Cincinnati. The Bengals will most likely lose RT Jonah Williams in free agency making the choice to draft the position much easier. Fashanu earned the 4th-highest pass-blocking grade in the 2023 class and could easily slip into a starting job very early on. The offensive line is not the only position the Bengals could choose to address here, but I do think it’s the most likely.
Los Angeles Rams – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Rams found a great deal of success last season even without much investment in their defense. No team has less money invested in their secondary than the Rams and they still managed to finish 21st in pass defense. Typically, a bottom-12 finish in any aspect is not impressive but taking into account their lack of focus on the defensive side of the ball it’s surprising they didn’t have a worse finish. Still, there is obvious room for growth. They can address this weakness by drafting Iowa’s versatile Cooper DeJean. DeJean’s natural playmaking ability will add a dimension to the Rams’ defense they’ve been sorely missing. DeJean has experience at safety, linebacker, and as a special teams returner, and was also a three-sport athlete with an extensive background. DeJean is an obvious upgrade and a Day 1 contributor.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
The Steelers will likely go with either OL or CB here. There have been many mock drafts where they have gone with Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson here, and that’s certainly possible. But with such a deeper center class than was initially anticipated, I’m going with Washington OT Troy Fautanu. In Fautanu the Steelers will get a player with good size (6-foot-4 and 317 pounds) and the versatility to play both LT as well as guard. Fautanu will also provide some reliability for whoever finds himself under center for the Steelers. In 2023, Fautanu logged over 1,200 pass-blocking snaps and allowed just two sacks from his blocking. After an impressive NFL Combine (5.01 40-yard dash, 1.71 10-yard split, 32.5” vertical, and 113” broad jump) his stock is steadily on the rise, and the Steelers will scoop him up.
Miami Dolphins – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Looking at the Miami Dolphins there are not a lot of glaring holes. It’s easy to imagine them wanting to simply add to their already impressive arsenal of offensive weapons by adding a wide receiver like Brian Thomas Jr. here. He has the type of speed and playmaking ability the Dolphins like. But as fun as that offense would be to watch, shoring up the offensive line is a smarter way to go, so they will choose to make that investment by drafting Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton. Guyton posted the second-lowest blown block percentage in the OT 2023 class. He also has some versatility. He played right tackle for Oklahoma but has all the movement skills he needs to slide to the left side.
Philadelphia Eagles – Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
The only thing the Eagles did right on defense in 2023 was run defense where they ranked as a top-10 unit. But on every other metric (pass defense, red zone defense, third-down defense, scoring defense, and passing defense) they were bottom three. This could mean that they go with a CB here or possibly OT, but since they might lose key veterans Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox, I think they’ll look toward Penn State’s Chop Robinson who just blew people away at the NFL Combine with his speed and athleticism, where he ran a 4.48-second 40, leaped a 34.5-inch vertical, and jumped 128” broad jump. At 6 feet and 254 pounds, Robinson has all the intangibles that will have teams chomping at the bit to draft him. The Eagles will be the team to do it.
Houston Texans – Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
Some health concerns surround UCLA’s Laiatu Latu after being medically retired from football after a preseason neck injury in 2020. But he is back in the mix and as long as he receives a clean bill of health, Latu will not reach the second round. Last season the Texans used their No. 2 pick to grab Will Anderson Jr. Pairing him with Latu makes too much sense to pass up. Latu possesses the kind of rare maturity to his game that you usually see from NFL veterans. Blockers consistently have problems keeping Latu blocked in run defense and, at least on the collegiate level, he dominated blocking tight ends. He also possesses the athleticism to drop down in coverage if need be, making him the type of versatile player the Texans love.
Dallas Cowboys – Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
What the Cowboys choose to do here will largely be influenced by what the Texans do at pick No. 23. Both teams have similar needs at OL, CB, and DL, but that could change depending on what positions they choose to address in free agency. Dallas could also choose to go a much different route and get another potentially elite weapon for QB Dak Prescott. Still, with much greater needs on their roster that seems like a long shot. With the likely loss of the 33-year-old Tyron Smith to free agency, Arizona’s Jordan Morgan could serve as a viable replacement on a line that has a glaring issue at offensive tackle. The other starter, at least at the moment, is Terence Steele, who finished as a bottom-15 pass blocker in 2023, allowing more QB hits than any other tackle. Morgan could be an immediate upgrade at a position that has suddenly become a big weakness for Dallas.
Green Bay Packers – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
This selection assumes that the medicals come back clean for McKinstry. McKinstry didn’t work out at the combine because of a Jones fracture in his foot, which is the kind of injury that could significantly impact his stock if there’s any doubt about his availability going into the draft. Still, if teams feel comfortable with his health, he’s a player that makes a lot of sense for the Packers. Cornerback is a major need for the Packers. Other than Jaire Alexander, every other cornerback that played for the Packers last year either wasn’t very good or was injured. With other needs, GM Brian Gutekunst could be a bit hesitant to draft a cornerback here seeing as how the defensive backs (Carrington Valentine and Anthony Johnson Jr.) they drafted last year didn’t pan out. But they were drafted in round 7 and lack the obvious talent McKinstry possesses. If McKinstry is healthy and makes it to them, he will be a Packer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
The Buccaneers are in serious need of help up front. Last season, the Buccaneers could not run block and need to get much better play from the interior of the line if they hope to improve in 2024. Cody Mauch, their second-round pick in 2023, had a disappointing first season and needs to improve in year 2. Both Aaron Stinnie and backup Matt Feiler are free agents and Ryan Jensen retired. As they continue their rebuild of the offensive line the Buccaneers will draft Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson. Powers-Johnson was the second-highest graded run-blocker and third-highest graded pass-blocker among interior offensive linemen last season and has the versatility to play both center and guard at the NFL level.
Arizona Cardinals – Graham Barton, OT, Duke
The Arizona Cardinals need help all up and down their offensive line. This means that whether Duke’s Graham Barton moves to guard upon entering the NFL (as some predict) or sticks at tackle he will be an immediate contributor for the Cardinals. OL is arguably the Cardinals’ No. 1 need with either players hitting free agency or underperforming. Barton has a thick, compact build with a low center of gravity, good core strength, and contact balance, and is great at understanding how to win leverage on defenders with positioning, pad level, and good quickness. These attributes will make him a perfect fit for a team in desperate need of an upgrade and that could be in the middle of a soft rebuild.
Buffalo Bills – Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU
For many teams it’s hard to know just which direction they’ll go in because they have several needs to address, but this selection is easy for me. The Bills don’t have a lot of glaring needs and with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady and his approach of more WRs, they’ll be looking to add more weapons. With Gabe Davis hitting free agency, LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. could be a suitable replacement. With game-changing capability, which he displayed over 38 games in college, he would be a welcomed addition for QB Josh Allen. Thomas Jr. also tested well at the NFL Scouting Combine, running a 4.33 40-yard dash time and a 38.5″ in the vertical. If he falls this far, the Bills will scoop him up.
Detroit Lions – Ennis Rakestraw, Jr., CB, Missouri
The secondary of the Lions wore down throughout the season and proved to be the Achilles heel of the unit at the worst possible time in 2023. Kindle Vildor, Emmanuel Mosley, and Will Harris are all free agents, making cornerback a must. One particular thing about Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw Jr. that scouts have highlighted is his toughness. This makes him the perfect first-round pick for a coach like Dan Campbell who values toughness over nearly anything else. Beyond that, Rakestraw Jr. has cemented himself as a premier man coverage CB showcasing elite press skills and a natural ability to shadow receivers downfield, while also proving adept at disrupting routes from the snap. He’d be great value toward the end of the first round.
Las Vegas Raiders – Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
It’s not impossible to imagine The Raiders trading up earlier in the draft to get a quarterback, but I think they’ll play the wait-and-see game. I also predict that route will pay off as Michael Penix Jr. falls to them later in the first round forcing them to pull the trigger. Penix was a productive quarterback in Washington over the last two years and brings with him NFL-level arm talent with distance and velocity, as well as two years of good health. Plus, by drafting him in the first round the Raiders get the fifth-year option with him. However, there is still room for improvement. Penix will need to clean up his footwork and throw with more anticipation and touch to truly develop into a franchise quarterback, but at pick No. 30, it’s worth the risk.
San Francisco 49ers – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
This may seem too obvious, but since the 49ers have gone defense with their first selection in five of the last seven drafts, I think they will do it again when they’re staring Byron Murphy II down. The 49ers may be unable to retain any or all of Randy Gregory, Clein Ferrel, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Javon Kinlaw, or Chase Young in free agency, and Arik Armstead is also in the final year of his deal. As an interior defender, Byron Murphy II finished with the second-highest pass rush win rate (30%) in 2023. There’s a possibility the 49ers look for offensive weapons in the event they choose to trade Brandon Aiyuk, but the 6-foot-1 and 297-pound DT from Texas feels like the more likely choice.
Kansas City Chiefs – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
It may seem crazy to suggest it, considering how the Chiefs won their second straight Super Bowl this past season, but WR seems the most likely here. In 2023, the WR room consistently let Patrick Mahomes (and the team) down. I would imagine it becomes a priority to surround Mahomes with more reliable weapons. Rashee Rice is entrenched as the possession receiver, but with Justin Watson and Kadarius Toney being free agents, Mecole Hardman and Richie James as free agents this offseason, and having already cut Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the Chiefs need to add a speedy rookie WR to the mix to help shoulder the load. Enter Texas’ Xavier Worthy, a reliable, big-play threat who could become a key cog in the Chiefs wheel. Worthy profiles as a faster version of WR Marquise Brown, making him a great fit for an offense that wants to play hard and fast.
