Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour moves from Texas to Oklahoma this week for the PGA Championship – the second major of the season after last month’s Masters Tournament. We will see 156 players in action this week, and the top 70 players plus ties after round 2 will advance to round 3 and round 4.
There’s $12M available to be won this week, the winner collects $2.16M and also earns 600 FedEx Cup points. Southern Hills Country Club is 7,556 yards in length, is a par 70, and the small greens are bentgrass. The average winning score at this event over the last ten years is -10.6, so scoring at PGA Championships tends to be hard to do. Phil Mickelson won this event last year with a score of just -6 at Kiawah Island and Tiger Woods won on this track in 2007 with a score of -8, so expect the winning score to be around -10 this week. Place bets on golfers this week who are strong on approach, hit a long ball off the tee blocks, are solid on long par 4’s, and are accurate from both over 200 yards and closer in at 50-100 yards.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the PGA Championship this week:
1. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total over the last 24 rounds? Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Harold Varner III, Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Viktor Hovland, and Xander Schauffele.
2. Will weather play a factor this week in Tulsa? We will experience a bunch of wind throughout the week – as of now, it looks like the Thursday morning wave is slightly more desirable for players, but not by a landslide. Look for players who embrace windy conditions – the Europeans, Texans, coastal golfers, etc.
3. Which 5 players offer the best outright betting value based on their odds vs projected finishes? These golfers include Dustin Johnson, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, and Louis Oosthuizen.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Scottie Scheffler (+1200) – He’s the top player in the world for a reason and it happened in a hurry starting with his win at the Phoenix Open in February – since then he has another three more wins including the Masters, and in just six stroke-play events. Every part of his game is working and I don’t see a reason why it will let up anytime soon. I like him as an outright bet, a top 5, and a top 10, and this will likely be the case every time he competes now for the foreseeable future.
Jordan Spieth (+1400) – He won two starts ago at the RBC Heritage and could have won last week too had he not three-putted from 7 feet on a hole – narrowly missing out on the opportunity to force a playoff against eventual winner K.H. Lee. Spieth gained strokes across the board last week including 10.06 ball-striking and gained strokes on the greens for the first time in six starts – it’s all working right now for the talented Texan. I believe you can bet Spieth any which way you want to this week, but I don’t think we will see him hoist the trophy due to lack of distance, so an outright wager is beyond the risk I would take on.
Avoid: Viktor Hovland (+1800) – I’m a huge fan of Hovland’s, but he hasn’t competed in a stroke-play event in five weeks or so, and his best finish over his last three stroke-play events is a T18. He could experience a ton of success this week, but I’m willing to bet that he doesn’t see a top 10.
+2600 to +5000
Will Zalatoris (+2800) – He seems to be built for major tournaments as he consistently finishes in the top 10, and missing the cut last week could actually be a positive for him this week to better prepare for this long, tough course. Before last week, he had three consecutive top 6’s if you count the Zurich Classic where he and his partner had a 4th, and aside from last week’s poor putting performance, he has gained over 8 strokes on the greens over his last two stroke-play tournaments played including 5.59 at the Masters. I like him as a top 10 bet this week, but you could venture into top 5 territory and I wouldn’t fault you for it.
Shane Lowry (+3500) – I want strong approach players on my betting card this week, and Lowry really interests me for that reason as he consistently gains strokes in the key stat category including 8.21 at the RBC Heritage in his most recent stroke-play event. Most of his finishes over his last nine stroke-play events have gone for teen or top 10 finishes, just two haven’t and his worst is a 35th. I’m comfortable endorsing a top 10 or a top 20 wager, especially the latter which is highly likely given his strong approach play and putting.
Avoid: Tyrrell Hatton (+4000) – I’ve never really been a Hatton guy and won’t be again this week. His ball-striking hasn’t been so good since March, and his best stroke-play finish over his last three starts is a T26 thanks to gaining 6.26 strokes with his short game. His last three PGA Championship results are a T48, a missed cut, and a T38 – expect something in this range again this week which means no real betting value for the Englishman.
+5100 to +10000
Keegan Bradley (+10000) – Bradley has three top 8’s in his last six starts if you count the Zurich Classic where he and his partner finished 4th, and most impressively, he’s coming off a T2 two weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship where he gained 5.67 strokes on ball-striking and a whopping 9.74 with the flat stick – the second-best putting performance of his career. I like him as a top 20 bet, but you could move up to a top 10 wager or down to a top 30 depending on how bullish you are on Keegan.
Corey Conners (+6000) – The ball-striking machine has gained at least 3.62 strokes in the stat category over his last seven events played and even his putter has been decent over his last six starts. Conners has finished anywhere from 3rd to T35 over his last seven starts, and I like him as a top 20 bet this week, but he’s certainly a threat to have his third top 6 in his last six starts.
Avoid: Tiger Woods (+6500) – I was super-impressed that Tiger made the cut at the Masters, even though his stats didn’t look very good at all except for a 0.97 gain on approach. Here’s to hoping he makes the cut this week and fares well, but I think the course will be too long and challenging for him and his still ailing body, and he will be packing up his bags on Friday to go home. He won here in 2007, but that seems like forever ago now.
+11000 and higher
Harold Varner III (+13000) – He’s an excellent approach player and that has translated into superb results recently with three top 6’s in his last six starts including a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T3 at the RBC Heritage where he gained 8.02 strokes on approach – his bread and butter. I think he’s ideal as a top 20 wager this week, but I won’t be surprised if he finishes top 10 – bet his upside if you’re very optimistic on him.
Cameron Champ (+15000) – The longest hitter on the PGA Tour should be licking his chops to play this course this week as his length will certainly come in handy on this stretched-out track. He gains like crazy off the tee thanks to his distance, he has gained at least 3.47 strokes on approach in two of his last three starts, and his putting has been well above his baseline in two of his last three starts, as well. He has gone 10th-T6-T38 over his last three starts, and I like him as a top 20 or a top 30 bet this week.
Avoid: Bubba Watson (+15000) – Bubba hasn’t had a top 10 on the PGA Tour since last July’s T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and his stats and results have been spotty since. His best finish at the PGA Championship over the last six years was a T60 in 2016 and over the last five years he has gone missed cut, missed cut, missed cut, T71, and 80th – expect a similar result this week, and don’t waste your money on the lefty this week.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
