Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
After you learn a ton from this article’s insights to enhance your fantasy golf picks for the U.S. Open, I advise that you check out FantasyData’s PGA Optimizer to elevate your daily fantasy lineups. All the best this week!
Congrats to last week’s Safeway Open winner Stewart Cink who’s the first player to win in the 2020-2021 season – he came out of nowhere to win his 7th PGA Tour tournament and his first in 12 years so I’m happy for the 47-year-old gentleman. We sure aren’t used to see the U.S. Open being the second event of a PGA Tour season or in September for that matter, but we will certainly take it given the complex and challenging world we now live in. Brace yourself for some exciting golf this week – this track plays extremely difficult and you can expect the winning score to be par or likely over par. The last time the PGA Tour hosted an event on this course was in 2006 for the U.S. Open when Geoff Ogilvy won with a winning score of +5. The last five winners of the U.S. Open include last year’s champ Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka won in both 2018 and 2017, 2016 saw Dustin Johnson win, and Jordan Spieth was the top player in 2015. The winning score fluctuates a ton since the U.S. Open is played on a different course from year to year.
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Tournament purse: The purse is very lucrative at $12.5M for this year’s tournament with the winner getting a whopping $2.25M in prize money and earning himself 600 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: As previously mentioned, the U.S. Open jumps around from year to year on U.S. soil – this year sees the event at Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course) in Mamaroneck, New York – it’s a very lengthy 7,477 yards, is a par 70, and the greens are mostly poa annua with some bentgrass mixed in. Some of the key stats to have on your radar this week are Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Fairways Gained, Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards, and Proximity 200+ Yards.
The field: We nearly have a full field event this week with 144 players set to compete at the U.S. Open. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A+ and as it should be as this is one of the most significant golf tournaments in the world. The top 60 plus ties after round two will get to play the weekend in rounds three and four, on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
Notable storylines: This will be the 6th time that historic Winged Foot Golf Club has hosted a U.S. Open, the first however in 14 years. Phil Mickelson double-bogeyed his very last hole at the 2006 U.S. Open at Winged Foot to lose by just one stroke, and Mickelson still is looking for his first U.S. Open championship. Tiger Woods is chasing his 16th major title this week and his 83rd win overall. Collin Morikawa is the most recent player to win a major, that came late last season at the PGA Championship and he’s hunting down his 2nd major championship this week. Brooks Koepka has withdrawn from the U.S. Open, so he can’t become a three-time U.S. Open champion this year.
Betting strategy this week: With the large field size this week and with a cut line to worry about on Friday, I would recommend trying to get as many 5 and 6 player lineups into the weekend as possible to maximize fantasy point totals and it will be extra hard this week with less players (only 60 plus ties versus the normal 65 plus ties) getting through the cut line than normal. For that reason, a balanced lineup approach is recommended but if you are playing several lineups then don’t be shy to deploy a “stars” and scrubs strategy for high risk/high reward outcomes which is easy to do with great, low cost players to pick from this week.
Best of luck for locking up some contest wins this week – here are my 15 picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information as well.
The $10K+ Range
Dustin Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $11.5K, FanDuel – $12.1K) – Johnson is the world’s best player at the moment and is coming off the massive FedEx Cup win. He’s gone runner up, win, runner up, win over his last four starts so he’s very dialed it right now and is the best bet to win this week. U.S. Open finishes over the past five years – 2019: T35, 2018: 3rd, 2017: Cut, 2016: Won the tournament, and 2015: T2.
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.0K, FanDuel – $11.8K) – Rahm has two wins over his past 6 starts and also has 4 top 6’s during that time. He’s still seeking his first major win and this week may present his best chance so far in his career. U.S. Open finishes over the past five years – 2019: T3, 2018: Cut, 2017: Cut, 2016: T23, and 2015: Did not play.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K, FanDuel – $11.1K) – Morikawa is the most recent major tournament winner coming off his strong play at the PGA Championship in early August. He has two wins since early July and is just so solid throughout his entire golf bag. He also had just two missed cuts in 21 starts last season and with a tough cut line this week, he’s a strong play for many reasons. He has only competed in the U.S. Open once – that came last year when he finished T35.
The $9K Range
Webb Simpson (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K, FanDuel – $10.8K) – Simpson won the 2012 U.S. Open and has a fairly good chance to win his second major event this week at Winged Foot. He had two wins and 9 top 10’s last season and will surely pile up a ton more this season with his golf game never being better than it has been over the past year or so. U.S. Open finishes over the past five years – 2019: T16, 2018: T10, 2017: T35, 2016: Cut, and 2015: T46.
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K, FanDuel – $10.7K) – Berger is coming off his best season ever with a win and 7 top 10’s, and I see another big campaign ahead for him. U.S. Open finishes over the past five years – 2019: T49, 2018: T6, 2017: Cut, 2016: T37, and 2015: Did not play.
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K, FanDuel – $10.2K) – Finau has immense talent and is likely getting tired of the question – when is he going to win a major tournament? He has 4 top 8’s over his past 7 starts and is well-positioned to do well this week. U.S. Open finishes over the past five years – 2019: Cut, 2018: 5th, 2017: Did not play, 2016: Cut, and 2015: T14.
The $8K Range
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K, FanDuel – $9.8K) – Hatton has a solid all around game including putting which will be very important this week on lightning-fast greens, so sign me up for Tyrrell. He won the Arnold Palmer last season, had 6 top 10’s in 11 starts, and finished no worse than 25th in the 3 playoff tournaments. U.S. Open finishes over the past five years – 2019: T21, 2018: T6, 2017: Cut, 2016: Did not play, and 2015: Did not play.
Adam Scott (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K, FanDuel – $9.9K) – Scott won The Genesis Invitational back in February, he won on the European Tour, and played consistent golf throughout his 11 starts last season. It may not matter a ton, but he did finish T21 in the 2006 U.S. Open at this venue so he does have some course experience to draw from unlike most players in the field this week. The 2013 Masters winner will be looking to add major win number two this week. U.S. Open finishes over the past five years – 2019: T7, 2018: Cut, 2017: Cut, 2016: T18, and 2015: T4.
The $7K Range
Brendon Todd (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K, FanDuel – $8.9K) – What if I told you that you could get a player who had two wins last season and is under $7.5K – might that be something you’re interested in?! Well Todd is your man as he won a couple times and is usually reasonably safe to at least make the cut. He has only qualified for the U.S. Open twice in the last five years and both of those starts were missed cuts, but he’s coming off his best season ever and I’m intrigued by what Todd brings to the table this week.
Kevin Kisner (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K, FanDuel – $9.0K) – Kisner had 5 top 10’s last season and was 15 for 21 with regards to cuts made during the campaign. He’s a strong putter and has a good short game to boot so he has my attention this week – he should at least make the cut. U.S. Open finishes over the past five years – 2019: T49, 2018: Cut, 2017: T58, 2016: T49, and 2015: T12.
Matthew Wolff (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K, FanDuel – $9.6K) – Wolff really got onto the mainstream radar at the previous major, the PGA Championship where he finished T4 thanks to his closing round 65. Over his past six starts he has finished no worse than T49 and four of those were no worse than T22. The 21 year old will be playing in his very first U.S. Open and his mindset is likely ‘nothing to lose’ so he could make some more noise this week – I’m bullish on him.
The $6K Range
MacKenzie Hughes (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel -$8.3K) – Hughes has played in weekend action in 9 straight starts, mind you, three of them were no cut events but also finished T10 to 14th in the 3 playoff events. He’s a solid putter which is a characteristic I’m looking for this week and he’s my favorite player that’s under $7K on DK. He has played in the U.S. Open twice in his career, he missed the cut both times but his golf game has never been better than now.
Kevin Streelman (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K, FanDuel – $7.7K) – Streelman has had a sound stretch since late June where he’s played all four rounds of every tournament and most of them were B or A rated caliber events with strong fields. He was T13 four years ago at the U.S. Open and that’s his only start at the event over the past five years.
Ryan Palmer (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K, FanDuel – $8.5K) – Palmer has 4 top 25’s over his past 6 starts and had 5 top 10’s last season overall. He only has two appearances at the U.S. Open over the last five years, one of which was a T52 in 2015 and he was cut in 2017.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s Safeway Open
The $10K+ Range
- Si Woo Kim – T44
- Brendan Steele – T29
- Phil Mickelson – T44
The $9K Range
- Emiliano Grillo – T29
- Joel Dahmen – T52
- Doc Redman – T3
The $8K Range
- Cameron Davis – T36
- Mark Hubbard – Missed the cut
- Tyler Duncan – Missed the cut
The $7K Range
- Denny McCarthy – Missed the cut
- Wesley Bryan – Missed the cut
- Kristoffer Ventura – T7
The $6K Range
- Adam Schenk – T61
- Kyoung Hoon Lee – Missed the cut
- Seamus Power – Missed the cut
