NFL Pick’em: Week 1

NFL Picks Week 1

undefined Who’s ready to make some money this season!? We had a great year here at FantasyData with our weekly pick’em selections. So great that we just had to bring it back this year! We nailed straight-up moneyline picks last season with a record of 143-80 (64%), which included a perfect week going 14-0 in Week 8. We are bringing back the same process and matchup notes we used last season that helped make our picks so successful. For this process, I dig through mountains of stats for each matchup at Team Rankings to find the best trends. For this season, we will be taking a closer look at the view of the public for each matchup as well, which is based on the expert consensus picks at BettingPros. As the season progresses and some more reliable trends form, we will start looking more at player props as well.

You can find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks right here at FantasyData for Week 1. Now, let’s just get to some NFL action!

Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 46)

The Colts scored 22.6 PPG last season.
The Jags allowed 24.8 PPG last season.
The Jags scored 18.8 PPG last season.
The Colts allowed 23.3 PPG last season and 27 PPG on the road.
The Jags are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups against the Colts.
The Jags have won each of their last five home games against the Colts dating back to 2015.
The home team has won in each of the last five games between these two teams.
The public likes the Colts to win straight-up and cover the spread with the under hitting.
Vegas has an implied final score of 26-18 in favor of the Colts.

The Colts are coming into Week 1 as one of the heaviest favorites from a moneyline standpoint. When you get down to the trends between these teams over the last 10 games, that seems like an overly-ambitious line.

The Jaguars have stripped this team down to the studs in a full-rebuild mode. They’re going to be led by second-year QB Garnder Minshew who possesses more charisma than talent. They also straight dropped problem child Leonard Fournette. Under new offensive coordinator, Jay Gruden, I don’t see this team being a whole lot different offensively, but their apparent pursuit of losing this season has everyone low on them.

The biggest story for the Colts this offseason was them bringing in former long-time Chargers QB Philip Rivers. While he should be an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett under center, it’s hard to gauge just how much of an upgrade he will be. The Colts scored slightly more PPG (22.6) than the Rivers-led Chargers last season (21.1). The Colts also finished the season with a better record at 7-9 compared to the Chargers’ 5-11. This is all considering that the Chargers probably had better offensive weapons at their disposal for Rivers to utilize over the Colts as well.

Vegas has this game pegged as a runaway win for the Colts. I don’t see it quite the same. I think there is enough here for the Colts to win behind what could be a more run-heavy approach, especially considering the Jags allowed the fifth-most rushing yards last season, but I would bet on the Jags covering +7 or more. Both of these teams could show some real struggles out of the gate also, which makes the under attractive here. This is one of the most intriguing games of the week for me. The Jaguars are probably my favorite underdog of Week 1, considering the favorable odds you can get for them to win straight-up at home.

Final Prediction: Colts win 21-17

Picks: Jaguars +7, Under 46

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers (O/U 47)

The Raiders scored 19.6 PPG last season.
The Panthers allowed 29.4 PPG last season — second-most in the NFL.
The Panthers scored 21.2 PPG last season.
The Raiders allowed 26.2 PPG overall last season and 28.3 PPG on the road — third-most in the NFL.
The OVER hit in 11-of-16 games for the Panthers last season — second-most in NFL.
These teams have not met since 2016.
The public likes the Raiders to win straight-up and cover the spread with the O/U being near a push.
Vegas has an implied final score of 25-22 in favor of the Raiders.

This is a game I will probably have no part of for betting purposes. There are just too many unknown variables as to how each team is going to look with a fair amount of offseason moves on both sides of the ball. The Panthers had a complete overhaul in the offseason welcoming in a trifecta of first-year coaches with head coach Matt Rhule, OC Joe Brady, and DC Phil Snow. They also brought in Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Teddy has been a decent game manager in his most recent samples with the Saints but certainly isn’t a threat to push the ball down the field much. Christian McCaffrey is still there, but he can only do so much. The Panthers also lost pretty much their entire defensive core and mixed in some rookies to fill the gaps. With so much shifting of the team’s leadership, new schemes, and inexperienced defense, the Panthers could look very unpolished from the get-go. This defense particularly will still probably be one of the worst in the league this season, but it’s hard to say if the Raiders are good enough to take advantage of the matchup.

The Raiders loaded up on some new offensive weapons for Derek Carr to attempt to utilize by bringing in Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. The team would be wise to ride their second-year running back Josh Jacobs into the ground for their best chance at success. The Raiders return their entire starting offensive line that was one of the best in football last season. The Raiders defense still has some holes in it, as it did last year, and they have notoriously been a poor road team.

The biggest problem with this matchup for me is that we know the defenses will be pretty weak on both sides, but neither offense instills enough faith to be able to take advantage of the situation. I agree with giving the Raiders the slight edge here given the amount of familiarity the team has with each other while the Panthers will probably need a few games in the trenches to start clicking.

Final Prediction: Raiders win 24-21

Picks: Raiders -1.5, Under 47

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6)(O/U 40)

The Jets scored 17.2 PPG last season — second-fewest in NFL.
The Bills allowed just 16.5 PPG last season — second-fewest in NFL.
The Bills scored 19.6 PPG last season.
The Jets allowed 22.4 PPG overall last season and 25.4 PPG on the road.
The UNDER hit in 13 games for the Bills last season — most in the NFL.
The UNDER hit in 9-of-16 games for the Jets last season.
The Bills were 9-6-2 ATS last season.
The Jets were 7-9 ATS last season.
The public likes the Bills to win heavily both straight-up and ATS with the over hitting.
Vegas has an implied final score of 23-16 in favor of the Bills.

Josh Allen.jpg This is easily projected to be the lowest-scoring game of Week 1 as two division rivals go toe-to-toe. The Bills defense was one of the strongest in the league last season and should remain the same this season. That’s terrible news for a Jets offense that was not only one of the slowest in the league from a plays per game perspective but also featured one of the worst passing attacks in the league. When one of the most standout performers from your team’s offseason training camps is 80-year-old Frank Gore, you know your team is going to have some problems.

On offense, the Bills could take a step forward this season as the team brought in former Viking Stefon Diggs to act as the true WR1 that this team has needed for a while. They also bolstered their backfield by bringing in rookie Zack Moss who has been a camp standout and should push Devin Singletary for work early. The Bills should have no problem dominating this game throughout, but with the Jets potentially not even offering a challenge, it certainly should be a bit of a sluggish game.

Final Prediction: Bills win 21-13

Picks: Bills -6, Under 40

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Atlanta Falcons (O/U 49)

The Seahawks scored 24.7 PPG last season.
The Falcons allowed 24.9 PPG last season.
The Falcons scored 23.8 PPG overall last season.
The Seahawks allowed 24.2 PPG overall last season.
The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Seahawks.
The OVER has hit in three of the last five games between these teams.
The public likes the Seahawks to win both straight-up and ATS with the under hitting.
Vegas has an implied final score of 25-24 in favor of Seattle.

This could very easily be one of the highest-scoring games of the week, and it’s set that way with one of the highest totals. The Seahawks let people walk all over them at home last season. They have since updated their secondary but will still have their hands full with the Falcons’ pass-heavy offense. The Seahawks are offered a better matchup for their WRs as the Falcons could still be vulnerable through the air. If Seattle truly commits to finally letting Russell Wilson loose, that will only further inhibit the shoot-out potential here.

The trends like the Falcons to cover here and the over to hit, and I agree. This game is a classic pick’em, in which case I would instead favor the home team in Week 1. This will be a great game to get a read on what we can expect from Seattle’s defense going forward, though.

Final Prediction: Falcons win 28-24

Picks: Falcons +1, Over 49

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Football Team (O/U 44.5)

The Eagles scored 23.2 PPG overall last season and 27.1 PPG on the road.
Washington allowed 27.2 PPG overall last season and 29 PPG at home.
Washington scored 16.6 PPG last season — fewest in the NFL.
The Eagles allowed 21.8 PPG overall last season and 27.5 PPG on the road.
The Eagles were 7-10 ATS last season.
Washington was 6-10 ATS last season.
The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Washington.
The Eagles have won their last six games against Washington.
The public likes the Eagles across the board (ATS, SU, ML).
Vegas has an implied final score of 24-18 in favor of the Eagles.

This feels like one of the most lopsided games of the opener to me as the Eagles should have no problem beating down Washington. The Eagles’ injury woes from last season spilled over a bit into this offseason as Alshon Jeffery is still not healthy, and neither is rookie WR Jalen Reagor. This leaves a starting WR corps of DeSean Jackson (if he can make it through four quarters), underperformer J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and former AAF wideout Greg Ward. It’s not just the WRs, though, as tight end Dallas Goedert has dealt with a thumb injury as well. Carson Wentz was able to make lemonade with the crop he had last season and could do so again. The team luckily has Miles Sanders ready for a substantial role in the backfield, though the offensive line could be an issue for both Sanders and Wentz. This could be the biggest problem for the Eagles as Washington will have a formidable pass-rush that now features rookie Chase Young.

Washington is riddled with issues from the front office down. The team finally changed its name to the clever monicker it has now, owner Dan Snyder is in the midst of a sexual harassment investigation, and new head coach Ron Rivera was diagnosed with cancer. Oh, and their running back prospect Derrius Guice was also released after being arrested for domestic violence. What else could go wrong? Well, they have a QB with loads of question marks in Dwayne Haskins, who is learning a new offense already from a first-year OC. He’ll operate behind a less-than-stellar offensive line and has just one talented playmaker on offense in Terry McLaurin.

Washington’s pass rush could be one of the best in the league this season and strong enough to stifle the wounded Eagles from completely letting it rip, but the Washington offense is also such a mess that it won’t be able to keep this a fair fight.

Final Prediction: Eagles win 23-13

Picks: Eagles -6.5, Under 44.5

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5) (O/U 43.5)

The Dolphins scored 19.1 PPG last season.
The Patriots allowed just 14.4 PPG last season — fewest in the NFL.
The Patriots scored 25.5 PPG last season.
The Dolphins allowed 30.9 PPG last season — most in the NFL.
The UNDER hit in 10-of-17 games for the Patriots last season.
The OVER hit in 9-of-16 games for the Dolphins last season.
The home team is 7-3 in the last 10 matchups between these teams.
The Patriots are 4-1 in their last five home games against the Dolphins.
The public likes the Patriots to win straight-up and the under to hit with the spread being a push.
Vegas has an implied final score of 24-18 in favor of the Pats.

This is a much different look at what we are used to seeing in a game with the Fins against the Pats. Now without Tom Brady, everyone is dying to see what New England will look like. They get a cupcake chance to prove that they’re ready to rebound with new QB Cam Newton under center as they’ll face a Dolphins team that Bill Belichick has dominated at home in the past. Ryan Fitzpatrick was named the starter for Week 1 against the Pats. He’s only beaten Belichick three times in 13 career games and has thrown more INTs (22) than TDs (21) over that span. The Dolphins will likely offer one of the worst offensive lines in the league this season, which will give Fitzpatrick zero time to make his magic happen.

The real star for the Patriots last season was their defense. They lost some key starters and likely won’t be quite as formidable as last season, but should still be a top-10 unit. With the Fins still in rebuild mode with former Bills coach Chan Gailey taking over as OC, this should easily be another team that struggles out of the gates.

Final Prediction: Patriots win 26-17

Picks: Patriots -6.5, Under 43.5

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) (O/U 48.5)

The Browns scored 20.9 PPG last season.
The Ravens allowed 18.2 PPG last season — third-fewest in the NFL.
The Ravens scored 31.9 PPG last season (most in NFL) and 27.9 PPG at home.
The Browns allowed 24.6 PPG last season.
The Ravens were 10-7 ATS last season.
The Browns were 5-10-1 ATS last season — third-worst in NFL.
The Ravens have won seven of their last 10 games against the Browns.
The Ravens have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games against the Browns.
The total was set at 48.5 the last time these teams met on 12/22/19. The Ravens won 31-15, covering a 10-point spread with the under hitting.
The public likes the Ravens as heavy favorites straight-up, with the Browns covering the spread and the under hitting.
Vegas has an implied final score of 28-20 in favor of the Ravens.

This feels like a pretty straight-forward matchup as far as these teams are concerned. The Ravens return essentially the same team that dominated the league week-in and week-out last season. They’re bringing back the same coaching staff and offensive talent that crushed last season, including the majority of their offensive line. To bolster their already league-best rushing attack, they also spent a second-round draft pick on RB J.K. Dobbins.

The bigger question in this matchup is if the Browns can finally stop being the Browns this year. They switched coaches again, this time bringing in former Vikings coach Kevin Stefanski. They’re expected to lean more towards a run-heavy approach this season to lighten the load for Baker Mayfield. They certainly have the backfield talent to do that with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt being one of the best one-two punches in the league. The Browns will also be looking for Odell Beckham Jr. to return to the elite form that we saw from him what seems like years ago.

While I believe that the Browns can be a better team this season and hang into games a little bit tighter than last season, I still don’t see them anywhere near the same caliber as the Ravens, especially in Week 1 at Baltimore. The Browns’ inability to keep up and the Ravens strong defense make the under the most intriguing bet here.

Final Prediction: Ravens win 27-17

Picks: Ravens -7.5, Under 48.5

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3) (O/U 45.5)

The Packers scored 23.6 PPG last season.
The Vikings allowed 19.4 PPG overall last season and just 16.1 PPG at home.
The Vikings scored 24.6 PPG last season.
The Packers allowed 20.7 PPG last season.
The Packers were 11-7 ATS last season.
The UNDER has hit in eight of the last 10 games between these teams.
The Vikings were 10-8 ATS last season.
The public likes the Packers to win and cover the spread with the under hitting.
Vegas has an implied total of 24-21 in favor of the Vikings.

We get a heated divisional rivalry here that will help give us a head start on planning out what the NFC North may look like this season. A lot has been made of the dreadful draft that the Packers had. Not only did they not bring in any talent to help Aaron Rodgers on offense, but they also drafted Jordan Love early, hinting that Rodgers’ storied career in Green Bay could be coming to an end. Rodgers was stifled against the Vikes last season, and he could struggle once again here on the road. One positive for Rodgers heading into this matchup is that the Vikes’ pass rush got downgraded a bit with Danielle Hunter moving to I.R. The Vikes also boast a new secondary this season. However, it can’t be much worse than the one they had last season, and Rodgers still couldn’t get much going.

For the Vikings, Dalvin Cook should remain the focal point of this run-first offense, especially with Stefon Diggs now in Buffalo. Justin Jefferson could be a candidate for offensive rookie of the year if he can fill the void left by Diggs in the passing game, but Adam Thielen should feast as the primary pass-catcher with more two TE sets also factoring in. Kirk Cousins, like Aaron Rodgers, didn’t do much to get us excited about against the Pack last season. The under crushes in Minnesota, and with this line sitting around 45, I think that is an excellent bet for this week.

Final Prediction: Vikings win 21-20

Picks: Packers +3, Under 45.5

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3) (O/U 44)

The Bears scored 17.5 PPG last season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions allowed 26.4 PPG overall last season and 29 PPG at home.
The Lions scored 21.3 PPG last season.
The Bears allowed 18.6 PPG last season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
The Bears were 4-12 ATS last season — worst in the NFL.
The Lions were 6-10 ATS last season.
The OVER hit in 10-of-16 games for the Lions last season.
The UNDER hit in 10-of-16 games for the Bears last season.
The public likes the Lions to win and cover the spread with the over hitting.
Vegas has an implied total of 23-20 in favor of Detroit.

We get more action from the north here as two teams who continuously disappoint attempt to change the course of their franchises. The Lions were playing pretty tough last season before Matthew Stafford went down with an injury. They hung in tight with the Chiefs in Week 4 and had the lead with just two and a half minutes left on the clock in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, that was too much time to give Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs last season, especially given how low the Lions defense was. That is really what killed them last season. Sure, playing sub-par backup QBs after Stafford went down didn’t help, but the defense hemorrhaging points to anyone and everyone especially killed them. If they can get a full season of Stafford this year though and get even average defensive play, that should be able to finish at or over .500.

The Bears are another story entirely. In the running with the Washington Football Team for the worst run organization in the NFL, the Bears brought in Nick Foles and his hefty contract for a backup-caliber QB to hopefully push Mitch Trubisky for the starting job. Trubisky won out and what we get is another season of likely underwhelming performances. The line in this game moved from Lions -1.5 to -3 right around the time Trubisky was announced the starter.

The Lions defense is still very suspect, and for all his struggles, Trubisky has played well against Detroit in his career. This makes the Lions far from a lock, and the spread an uncomfortable bet given the Bears could potentially upset the Lions. The only pick I would maybe throw money at here is the over hitting with Stafford able to push the ball and Trubisky having a solid track record against Detroit.

Final Prediction: Lions win 24-23

Picks: Bears +3, Over 44

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 43)

The Chargers scored 21.1 PPG last season.
The Bengals allowed 26.2 PPG last season.
The Bengals scored 17.4 PPG last season — third-fewest in NFL.
The Chargers allowed 21.6 PPG last season.
The Chargers were 4-9-3 ATS last season — second-worst in NFL.
The Bengals were 6-10 ATS last season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Bengals have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against the Chargers.
The UNDER hit in 9-of-16 games for each team last season.
The UNDER has hit in each of the last five games between these two teams, but the implied total wasn’t lower than 46 total points in any of those matchups.
The public likes the Chargers to win and cover the spread with the under hitting.
Vegas has an implied total of 23-20 in favor of the Chargers.

It’s virtually impossible to know what to expect from this game, and past trends do next to nothing for us. Philip Rivers is now in Indy, and the Bengals will give us a first look at the number one overall draft pick, Joe Burrow. For the Chargers, they are turning to Tyrod Taylor to lead the way as he rejoins Anthony Lynn, whom he spent time with in Buffalo. Tyrod performed well enough in camp to keep the first-round draft pick, Justin Herbert, at bay. We should see a lower volume pass attack from what we are used to with the Chargers as Tyrod likes the short-to-intermediate passes off to the side and steers clear of passing down the middle or downfield often. These check-down type plays will be needed as the Chargers will boast one of the worst O-lines in the league. This all could bode well for RB Austin Ekeler to thrive as one of the best receiving backs in the league. Tyrod will also be missing his best downfield threat with Mike Williams nursing an injury.

There have been nothing but glowing reports out of training camp that Joe Burrow was well worth the first overall pick the Bengals spent on him. He will be thrown into the fire in Week 1, however, going against what could be one of the nastiest defensive fronts in the league this season. Burrow will be getting a full complement of pass catchers at his disposal as A.J. Green is in something of a prove-it year, and Tyler Boyd will operate as the WR1B. Joe Mixon could also have an efficient day out of the backfield as the Chargers don’t offer much to worry about from a run defense standpoint.

With so much unknown here as to how each team is going to look with their revamped offenses, it’s pretty risky to lay money on anything. My bet, though, would probably be on the Bengals coming out guns blazing with Burrow. I think their offense could be a lot more aggressive than the play it safe/tuck and run style that we have seen from Tyrod Taylor in the past. Therefore, I would probably take the Bengals as home dogs here straight-up. The trends also like the under to hit, though this total is lower than what we have seen from a matchup between these two teams in the past.

Final Prediction: Bengals win 20-17

Picks: Bengals +3, Under 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) (O/U 49)

The Bucs scored 28.6 PPG overall last season (fourth-most) and 31.4 PPG on the road (second-most)
The Saints allowed 21.6 PPG last season.
The Saints scored 28.1 PPG last season — fifth-most in the NFL.
The Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG last season — fourth-most in the NFL.
The Saints were 11-6 ATS last season — third-best in the NFL.
The Bucs were 5-9-2 ATS last season — fourth-worst in the NFL.
The OVER hit in 12-of-16 games for the Bucs last season — most in the NFL.
The OVER has hit in four of the last five games between these teams.
The implied total has only been under 50 points in three of the last 10 games between these teams.
The Saints have won and covered the spread in each of their last three games against the Bucs.
The public likes the Saints to win with the Bucs covering and the over hitting.
Vegas has an implied total of 26-23 in favor of the Saints.

michael thomas.jpg This is quite possibly the most highly anticipated game of Week 1. We will get our first look at how the Tom Brady-led Bucs perform, and they will match up against another future Hall of Famer in Drew Brees. Brady will be going up against a Saints defense that remains pretty much completely intact from the squad they had last season, which was a pretty solid unit. The Saints run defense was more of a problem for offenses, and with the uncertainty in the Bucs backfield with newly-acquired Leonard Fournette, we could see some heavy volume out of Brady in Week 1.

The Saints offense also remains relatively unchanged, with the most significant addition being a legitimate WR2 with veteran Emmanuel Sanders coming into the fold. The Bucs defense was much like the Saints, solid run defense with a lackluster secondary, though the secondary did progress throughout the season.

Depending on where you look, the total sits right under 50 points for this game. Despite this being projected as one of the highest-scoring games of the week, this total is relatively low considering what we are used to seeing from these two teams when they meet. Perhaps removing Jameis Winston’s lock to throw at least one pick per game and two QBs over the hill going at it changes things a bit. Regardless, I still think this could easily lead to a shoot out in the scoring-friendly dome in New Orleans. Given the carryover of talent the Saints have and this unique offseason, I think you have to give them the edge here.

Final Prediction: Saints win 28-26

Picks: Bucs +3.5, Over 49

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7) (O/U 47)

The Cardinals scored 22.6 PPG last season.
The 49ers allowed 19.5 PPG last season.
The 49ers scored 29.6 PPG overall last season (third-most) and 32.3 PPG at home.
The Cardinals allowed 27.6 PPG last season — fifth-most in the NFL.
The Cardinals were 9-5-2 ATS last season — fourth-best in the NFL.
The 49ers were 11-7-1 ATS last season.
The Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the 49ers.
47 points is the highest implied total set for a matchup between these two teams since 2008.
Both games between these teams last season went over 50 total points.
The public likes the 49ers to win, but the Cardinals are heavy favorites to cover the spread with the over hitting.
Vegas has an implied total of 27-20 in favor of the 49ers.

We get an intense division rivalry here featuring two teams that gave us some must-watch football last season. The Cardinals are a top candidate to take a step forward this season under the leadership of Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. The Cards brought in one of the league’s best wideouts for Kyler to target with DeAndre Hopkins coming over in a head-scratching deal they made with the Texans. Kyler played arguably some of his best football against this 49ers team last season and could be primed to knock the Niners off in a big Week 1 upset.

The 49ers simply aren’t ready for Week 1. Their top-ranked defense saw Nick Bosa and Dee Ford miss time with injuries during camp. Fred Warner has missed time on the COVID list, and DeForrest Buckner is now in Indy. Things aren’t much better on offense as WR Deebo Samuel missed all of camp with a foot injury. The team also moved up in the first round of the draft to pick wideout Brandon Aiyuk, who has been nursing a hamstring injury through camp as well. The RB room is fit and ready for Week 1, however, which will be the heart and soul of this offense alongside elite tight end George Kittle. The O-line is another spot that has been ravaged by injuries early, which could be a cause for concern for the RBs and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Given all the injuries the 49ers are dealing with, I love the Cards to cover the spread here, especially considering their 4-0-1 ATS record over the last five games against SF. But I’m not stopping there. I am taking the Cards to win this straight-up, making a statement in their division, and being a candidate for the biggest upset of the week. The Niners just aren’t ready.

Final Prediction: Cardinals win 26-24

Picks: Cards +7, Over 47

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Los Angeles Rams (O/U 52)

The Cowboys scored 27.1 PPG overall last season but just 22.1 PPG on the road.
The Rams allowed 22.8 PPG last season.
The Rams scored 24.6 PPG last season.
The Cowboys allowed 20.1 PPG last season.
The Cowboys were 9-7 ATS last season.
The Rams were 10-5-1 ATS last season — second-best in the NFL.
The OVER hit in 10-of-16 games for the Cowboys last season — third-most in the NFL.
The UNDER hit in 9-of-16 games for the Rams last season — fifth-most in the NFL.
The OVER has hit in each of the last four games between these teams, with the total score going over 60 points in three of the previous four games.
The public likes the Cowboys to win and cover the spread with the over hitting.
Vegas has an implied total of 27-24 in favor of the Cowboys.

These two teams have given us some absolute shootouts in the past, and we could be set to see that again in Week 1. The total for this game moved from 50.5 to 52, signaling that the early money was pouring in on the over early as well. Dallas feels like more than a three-point favorite to me, given the state of the Rams defense. DC Wade Phillips is gone as well as a plethora of talent all over the field including Cory Littleton, Clay Mathews, Eric Weddle, and Dante Fowler. On offense, the Rams are looking for Jared Goff and the passing game to rebound after a season that saw them pump out a high-volume passing attack with limited results. Todd Gurley has taken his old-man knees to Atlanta, which leaves a void to be filled by a committee of unproven backs that includes rookie Cam Akers.

The Cowboys added to their offensive attack in the draft by selecting WR CeeDee Lamb. He’s expected to run primarily in the slot to begin, which is an out of this world upgrade over the likes of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten that we saw running in the middle of the field often last season. Dak Prescott is still pushing to make a statement that he deserves to be one of the highest-paid QBs as he plays this year out on the franchise tag while RB Ezekiel Elliott remains settled in as one of the best in the league.

Now free from the world’s most obnoxious gum chewer, Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are primed for a big year and could come out of Week 1 on the right side of a blowout win. I love them to cover a three-point spread.

Final Prediction: Cowboys win 30-23

Picks: Cowboys -3, Over 52