DraftKings NFL Picks Week 1
INITIAL THOUGHTS
Without a preseason to get a feel for how teams will look this year, NFL week one is going to be a mystery to most. We’re all going to be relegated to last year’s data, beat writer camp reports, and inaccurate depth charts. Luckily, week one pricing is the loosest it’ll be all year, so we have some room to work with here. For this week, I have duplicated the MATCH-UP CHART that I was producing last year based on data I was collecting from NFL GSIS game logs. The best we can do is compare that data to current rosters and determine whether the defenses we want to pick on got better or worse this off-season. That being said, let’s have a look at the slate.
Here’s a look at who I believe will be the chalk of the slate along with some guys to pivot over to, and if needed, some punt plays.
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QUARTERBACKS
- BEST BETS: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kyler Murray
- PIVOTS: Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Teddy Bridgewater
- PUNTS: Mitch Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor
Lamar Jackson ran for a combined 169 yards against the Browns front 4 last year. The Browns only return one starter from the LB and S positions, and Jackson should be in line for another big game if you’re willing to spend up for it. He’s tops our projections for QB this week. Cam Newton is priced down in a match-up against one of the worst pass defenses last year. Newton will likely be heavily rostered which makes him more of a fade for me this week. I don’t have to be the first one to catch a good game from Newton this year. I’d rather see how the Patriots utilize him and what receivers step up as his go-to options. Russell Wilson and his deep strike receivers should be able to hit a few big plays against a defense that ranked 26th in Net Yards per Attempt last year and is largely returning the same defensive roster, with a rookie now their top corner. Two of Jimmy Garoppolo’s top 3 games last year came against this Cardinals defense, one of which he was without his top weapon George Kittle. If his counterpart Kyler Murray takes a second-year leap, along with Kingsbury’s offense, this could turn into a high paced shootout making both of these guys great plays. Jimmy GQ is dirt cheap which will drive his ownership up, so you’ll have to find some low-key plays throughout the rest of your roster if you’re going to roster him.
Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz make for interesting pivots off of Murray and Newton. Both face weak secondaries and Rodgers will not have to face pass rusher Danielle Hunter who is out for this week. People are likely going to overlook both of these QBs because of their placement in pricing and because both are considered short on weapons this week. Teddy Bridgewater is bargain priced against one of the most QB friendly defenses of last season. He may be in the higher ownership group along with Jimmy G, but this spot is too good to fade. Bridgewater is more likely to be stacked with DJ Moore so going with a Teddy/CMC or Teddy/Samuel stack may be the way to differentiate here and use Moore as a single play in other line-ups. Mitchell Trubisky has won the starting job in Chicago and makes my list for a punt play for only $5400. Look, Mitch is not a good QB, but he can have games where he’ll run for 30+ yards and/or throw for 300 and put a couple of touchdowns on the board to boot. The Lions defense allowed multiple passing touchdowns in two-thirds of their games last year. With the health of Montgomery’s groin up in the air, this could be a high volume passing game for the Bears against a Lions team that has an offense capable of putting plenty of points on the board. Tyrod Taylor is in an interesting spot. We haven’t really seen him since he got injured and relinquished his starting role to then-rookie Baker Mayfield. Now he’s quarterbacking a highly concentrated offense and trying to hold off another 1st round rookie at QB. I would expect Taylor to use all of his tools, including taking off for some yards on plays he doesn’t see his reads open. Taylor projects well in our projections and has our #1 value score at QB for the week.
RUNNING BACKS
- BEST BETS: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, Antonio Gibson
- PIVOTS: Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler
- PUNTS: James White, Matt Breida, Tarik Cohen, Kerryon Johnson, Jerick McKinnon
With most of the field-dependent on last season’s data, it’s likely everyone’s top play will be Josh Jacobs against Carolina’s putrid run defense. He’s in a great spot here, and if Jon Gruden believes his own words, then he’ll actually get Jacobs some targets, too. Jacobs may have the highest ownership percentage for the slate, but that doesn’t mean we should fade him completely. Keep a handful of builds with Jacobs in them to take advantage of this match-up, but also know you’re holding hands with a lot of people, so if you’re going single bullet into a large tourney, then you might want to fade. Dalvin Cook totaled 191 yards and 2 TDs against this same Green Bay front-7 (Kirksey the only new face) in week 2 of last year. That is likely the expectation here with a healthy Cook coming out of the gate. He may not garner the ownership as some of the other backs discussed, but I suspect he’ll be popular. Antonio Gibson will undoubtedly be chalky this week with that $4000 price tag but the Eagles are no slouches on run defense and can cover pretty well. This is the cheapest we’re likely to see Gibson for the rest of the year, making him hard to avoid in some builds, but I want to stay away from going all-in on him due to high ownership. Christian McCaffrey is likely who you’re paying up for if you’re taking Gibson, and it’s probably who you are projecting Gibson to be. This isn’t a bad RB combo, but just be aware you’re not going to be the only one playing it.
Miles Sanders survived rumors of a Freeman (or other RB) signing and has a grip on the majority of the touches to come out of the Eagles backfield this year. He’s especially important this week with so many injuries at WR for Philly. They’ll want to control the game with him running the ball, but he also becomes a highly valuable pass-catcher out of the backfield. Sanders has the top run-blocking OL versus an opposing defensive front four based on average grade of each unit using last year’s PFF player grades. [SATURDAY UPDATE: Miles Sanders will not play in this game, making Boston Scott a great play. However, Scott is going to be massively owned this week because of pricing and the match-up]. The Chargers don’t have a lot to work with on offense, which gives the pieces they do have more opportunity. Austin Ekeler should see plenty of carries against the Bengals 4th-worst Run DVOA and a minimum of 3 catches for 30 yards out of the backfield based on what Cincy surrendered to some other passing catching backs last year, but I would take the over on that line. Whether or not the Chargers get into scoring territory will factor into his TD opportunities, but he could score from outside the 20, too. An interesting note on this match-up is the divergence between run DVOA from Football Outsiders and the difference in average 2019 PFF player grade of the 5 Chargers starting OL versus the Bengals starting front-four along the defensive line. Based on that metric, Ekeler has the worst run-based match-up on the slate. More catches, then? We’ll see. Aaron Jones is interesting this week after he smashed the Vikings for 270 combined rushing yards last year, earning the DK bonus for rushing both times. Jones may still be Aaron Rodgers’s second look on a lot of pass plays if he is not comfortable with his other receiving options, much like we saw down the stretch in 2019. A lot of folks are pining for TD regression with Jones, but he should be able to hold value on yards and receptions, especially here.
James White should figure into the game plan this week based on several factors. The QB is new to the team and didn’t get a preseason. Their starting RB (Michel) is coming back from a foot injury. The new QB is also comfortable dumping off to his RB after spending a couple of years with CMC. The Patriots front-7 is going to look a lot different than the group that dominated RBs last year which allows Matt Breida an opportunity to have a sneaky good game against them. There is concern that both teams play this game slow and don’t score many points, but Breida had the fastest clocked speed on a play last year and now plays in a spread-out offense that could get him into open space for some big-play potential. His $5000 salary makes him an easy target to fill a value spot in our builds. David Montgomery is a question mark as of writing, which could leave Tarik Cohen to take on a larger role as a pass-catching extension of the running game. Cohen has a career average of 5.5 targets per game making him a pretty decent option for $4900. Across from Cohen in this game is Kerryon Johnson who has seen his team draft and sign a RB. That speaks as much to their displeasure with the depth behind Johnson as it does to their concern with him long term due to injuries. If he’s healthy this week, he’s their top RB on the depth chart, with Swift missing a lot of camp and AP just arriving. He should be good for a solid workload in this game against a mediocre defense that could be without stud DT Akiem Hicks. Jerick McKinnon could have a larger than expected role out of the gate if the Niners play without Deebo and Aiyuk, and they are forced to manufacture passing opportunities away from the receivers that do play. Jet will challenge the Cardinals defense with WR type routes out of the backfield. This could create huge mismatches with Arizona’s linebackers.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- BEST BETS: Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, DJ Moore, Lockett/Metcalf, Chris Godwin
- PIVOTS: Terry McLaurin, DJ Chark, Marquise Brown, Desean Jackson, Marvin Jones, Julian Edelman
- PUNTS: Chris Conley, Curtis Samuel, Marques Valdez-Scantling, Kendrick Bourne, Marvin Hall
The Tampa/Nola game is going to attract plenty of attention between those offenses, both of whom were in the top 9 last year. Leading the list of players likely to be pulled for roster construction this week will be Michael Thomas. Thomas is likely to be cheaper in the future, but with so many value-plays at RB and TE, it will allow creative construction to build around the high-end receivers on the slate. Davante Adams will rival Thomas for targets this week and faces an overhauled CB unit in Minnesota that looks like an easy group to pick on. As mentioned above, I think Bridgewater and DJ Moore are going to make up a popular stack on DraftKings this week. Both are great plays, and I’ll have exposure to both, but will limit the combo exposure to some degree. The Raiders corners struggled a bit last year, and they have added a rookie playing his first game without a preseason to the mix. This could be a monster game for Moore and/or Curtis Samuel or Robbie Anderson, who make for a nice punt option at $4600. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf get to run routes at 2nd-year corner Isaiah Oliver and rookie A.J. Terrell. Oliver had his best coverage grade of last season against these receivers, but this game looks like it could end up in a shootout. We’ll see if Sneaky Pete lets Russ cook earlier than usual or if he decides to keep it simple and run and play defense to ease into the season. Either way, these two will be pretty chalky at their pricing for the type of game environment that could boost their targets. Another team with an under-performing returning starter and a rookie CB combo lies in the Bears defense. Kenny Golladay roasted last year’s iteration of the Bears defense on his home turf last year, and a repeat performance seems likely here. [SATURDAY UPDATE: Golladay has been listed as doubtful, meaning he is not likely to play. I will pivot over to some Marvin Jones, TJ Hockenson, and maybe punting with Marvin Hall in a build or two.]
A couple of guys on teams that could have trouble keeping the scoreboard tight early on and end up seeing a bunch of targets will be Terry McLaurin and DJ Chark. Philly struggled with McLaurin in both games last year while Chark had one of his best games of the year against Indy in week 11 before getting shut down in a meaningless week 17 game for the Jaguars. Marquise Brown had a healthy training camp and is a year into the system. He’s going to be a dangerous weapon for Roman’s offense that likes to play heavy and take deep shots when defenses start getting too close to the line. As of Wednesday, two of the three starting corners for the Browns were not participating in practice, and a depth guy was limited [NOTE: Greedy Williams appears to be out and will be replaced by Terrance Mitchell]. This is something to monitor as we get closer to game day. Brown has monster potential if these guys miss. Desean Jackson is the only healthy one of the three projected Eagles starting receivers and brings the best bet for any deep passing action in this game. Washington’s secondary allowed 17.5 fantasy points per game to opposing #1 WRs last year, and their two starting outside corners combine for the second-lowest average grade for the slate this week. If there was ever a time to slip a healthy D-Jax into your line-up, this is the week. [SATURDAY UPDATE: It now seems likely Jalen Reagor will play in this game. How much of a role he will have is a question. I am less enthused about using JJAW now, but still like Jackson.] For the same reasons I like Golladay, we can also like Marvin Jones. He did not have big games against the Bears defense last year. However, both of last year’s games were without Matt Stafford. Jones provides a way to capitalize on a weak secondary without having to pay up for the higher owned Golladay. Julian Edelman is interesting this week due to the fact the Patriots receiver depth behind him is befuddling. Newton has experience with Damiere Byrd from Carolina days but Edelman will likely be his #1 read on every play to start the year. This is a volume play that may catch some upside if Edelman catches a TD or two.
The punts of the slate are pretty much the #2 receiver to the #1 receivers I like. Chris Conley has won a starting job and a captain’s role on the Jaguars and faces a Colts defense that allows completions to occur in front of them. If the Jags are playing from behind, he should see pretty solid volume for $4000. JJ Arcega-Whiteside also appears to be in line for a starting role this week and will likely be the 4th or 5th option in the passing game but does carry some sneaky upside if he’s beating his man regularly. [SATURDAY UPDATE: It now seems likely Jalen Reagor will play in this game. How much of a role he will have is a question. I am less enthused about using JJAW now, but still like Jackson.] Marques Valdez-Scantling is a deep punt option if you’re looking for salary savers that will fly well below the radar and be that 1-3% ownership guy in large-field tourneys. I may not get him into a build this week, but he is intriguing to me as a deep threat option that is coming off a good camp and has been publicly praised by his QB.
TIGHT ENDS
- BEST BETS: George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller
- PIVOTS: Hunter Henry, Jack Doyle, Rob Gronkowski, TJ Hockenson
- PUNTS: Jordan Reed, Logan Thomas
For the same reason, I think Michael Thomas will be popular, I also think George Kittle will be on more rosters than you might expect. Week 1 pricing opens up so much value because it’s been set for a month. Kittle is easy to squeeze in when you’re paying down for Jimmy G and some of those $4k RBs. Kittle had a modest game by his standards (6/79/1) in the only game he was healthy for against Arizona, and now he’s fully refreshed and facing the team that allowed the most fantasy points to the TE position last year. Zach Ertz is the top receiving option for the Eagles and is facing off against the 3rd-most generous team against TEs last year and he is also starting the year healthy. Mark Andrews is one of the top two receiving threats on the Ravens, and he caught 3 TDs against the Browns last year. The Browns are starting over in the back-middle of their defense with Goodson at MLB and Joseph/Sendejo at safety. New faces could spell communication/assignment trouble against an offense as creative as Greg Roman’s and Andrews could benefit. Irv Smith is just too dang cheap to not be chalky for those spending down at TE this week. Smith will play the Owen Daniels role in Kubiak’s offense, which should send a lot of targets his way if the Pack try to smoother Thielen.
Hunter Henry has a chance to pick up the opportunities Mike Williams will leave if/when he misses this game with his shoulder injury. Tyrod will be looking at Allen, Henry, and Ekeler when he drops back and not much of anyone else. Henry may be the preferred red-zone target here as well. Jack Doyle gets to play with Henry’s old, TE-friendly QB this season, and Doyle’s coach also loves to dial up plays for the TEs. With Burton on IR, Jack Doyle should feast with Rivers in the pocket. Jordan Reed may see himself with a ton of opportunity this week if both Deebo and Aiyuk miss this game. Kendrick Bourne and Trent Taylor will likely pick up the slack at WR but the best way to attack the Cardinals defense is with tight ends. Kittle will draw heavy coverage leaving Reed to expose mismatch coverage. For a deeper dive into the $2k TEs, we can look at Logan Thomas for $2800. Thomas won the starting TE job on a team deprived of receiving threats outside of McLaurin. Thomas has been in the league since 2014, but we have seen guys like Gary Barnidge take forever to figure it out and have a breakout season. Perhaps Thomas starts his breakout this week?
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
- BEST BETS: Bills, Ravens
- PIVOTS: Seahawks, Colts, Chargers
- PUNTS: Redskins, Dolphins, Jets
Week 1 pricing will allow people who want to pay up at DST to do so. When that’s the case, I’d expect most people to target the Bills and Ravens. The Bills/Jets game could feature the worst weather on the slate so I’m looking at both defenses here and have the Jets as a punt opportunity to save some salary. I’m not sure how many people realize how good the Seahawks defense could be this year. Adding Adams should make it obvious, but looking at PFF grades across the board shows the Falcons could be in trouble this week. The Colts are a strong defense that added a disruptor up the middle with Buckner. They should be able to handle the Jags pretty handily. The Chargers also have a well rounded defensive roster and will take on a rookie QB that had no preseason reps. That will interest me this week. The Redskins get a depleted Eagles offense giving them a path to be worth the minimum price as a punt. Another interesting play as a salary saver this week will be the Dolphins who face a QB on a new team that hasn’t played since week 2 of last year. A few more defenses that may be interesting include Arizona against the 49ers remade offensive line and possible depleted receiving corps. The Raiders against a terrible OL in Carolina that has a college coach taking on the pro game without a preseason. The Packers pass-rush against an offense with only two proven threats and a bad OL. Even the Patriots defense with all their “opt-outs” looks good on paper against Miami’s untested rookies on the offensive line. The Eagles take on a weak OL and new coaching system in D.C., which could be an advantage for them this early in the season.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Week 1 is always fun because of the flexible pricing and everyone’s different ideas of how teams will look. We have the added element of no preseason to do our own “scouting” which will shake things up even more. There are going to be some out of nowhere players that will be on the large field tourney winning rosters. There will also be more fish in the water this week than the rest of the year as DraftKings has cast their lines to attract new players for week 1. Should be a wild start to what has been a wild year so far. Good luck, and thanks for reading!
