DFS Cash Game Tips
Week 14 looks a bit ugly with several wide spreads and lots of games and teams with low totals. There aren’t very many game environments to lean into and it looks like another week of getting the best plays in the right combo. Let’s have a look.
Quarterback
There are only four QBs I’m considering for cash games this week due to the state of the slate. The Bills at Bucs is the top game environment of the week and I will look for ways to get Josh Allen ($7800) on as many of my Cash Game, Single Entry, and 3-Max rosters as possible. The Bucs are a stifling run defense and Buffalo has no run game to lean on, other than Allen’s legs. Tampa has also faced the highest average pass attempts per game which will likely hold up with the Bills needing to pass to stay in the game. Tom Brady ($7600) also stands out on a thin QB slate this week since he’s on the other side of this game environment that stands out like a beacon leading us home. There is less certainty that Brady will need to throw as much as Allen but he can be efficient enough to pop for 4+ TDs on any given week. I’m expecting Leonard Fournette to be heavily involved in the game plan and that could come as a pass-catcher giving Brady the extra Green Zone outlet for TD passes. If I’m not paying up for either of these guys, then I’ll go down to Cam Newton ($5400) and look for him to be involved in all of the (2 to 3) TDs the Panthers might score. Newton provides the same rushing floor as Lamar Jackson but at a lower cost. The Panthers are coming off of a bye week and will have a new play-caller on offense, which makes this play a bit more interesting. Taysom Hill ($5600) is also on my radar for his rushing floor against a run defense that just allowed 185-yards on the ground to the Eagles. For small-field tournaments, I’m adding Dak Prescott ($6700) and Justin Herbert ($7100) to my player pool.
Running Back
There are some injuries and illnesses to keep an eye on before locking in some of the RBs on this slate. When Keenan Allen was put on the Covid-19 list it opened up the opportunity for Austin Ekeler ($8300) to be more involved in the short-area passing game. The Giants are not that great of a challenge to move the ball on the ground either. The only issue facing Ekeler is how soon Staley sends him to the bench if the game gets out of hand early. I mentioned Leonard Fournette ($7400) above and I really like him in the top game environment who is now seeing a bell-cow role for the Bucs. Brady trusts him and will throw him the ball on check-downs quite often (7.75 targets per game over the last four). The Bills have a tough run defense on paper but have been gashed by teams with strong offensive lines and bigger RBs (see: Henry, Taylor, and Patriots games). Fournette should play a large role in the game plan this week. Alvin Kamara ($7900) is in a great spot against that Jets defense and with Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery on the Covid-19 list he should get near all of the RB opportunities. Kamara will have to compete with Taysom Hill for goal-line carries but is in for a massive workload in a great matchup. If Tony Pollard is out, then I’ll have Ezekiel Elliott ($7300) in my top 3 or 4 RBs for the week.
The Raiders are attackable through the running game and with TEs so I’ll have interest in Clyde Edward-Helaire ($6100) if I’m shopping for RBs in this salary range. Javonte Williams ($5900) didn’t get an aggressive price increase and his committee partner is still dealing with a shoulder injury, which can be aggravated in-game. Even with Gordon on the field, Williams still has a good matchup to provide a solid price-considered floor in this spot.
The spot to watch this week, if we’re looking for value, will be with the 49ers backfield. If Eli Mitchell ($6900) can’t go, then it leaves the 49ers with Jeff Wilson ($4400) and JaMychal Hasty ($4000) behind him. However, Wilson is also dealing with a knee injury which could leave just Hasty as the lead back. Hasty would be the primary passing-down back if Wilson plays making him a reasonable punt in tourneys but if he’s the lead, he’s worth a cash game roster spot as well.
Wide Receiver
There aren’t many top-dollar WRs I’m dying to play this week and not a ton of certainty at the position as a whole. One of my top targets, if he’s playing, is Deebo Samuel ($8000). We just saw what the Chargers did to the Bengals defense last week and Deebo plays a mix of RB, run-after-the-catch WR, and is involved in the intermediate and deep passing games. Four of Deebo’s five TDs catches are from the intermediate (10-19 yards) or deep (20+ yards) variety. The Bengals top corner (Awuzie) is dealing with a foot injury which could allow Deebo to have a terrific game here. CeeDee Lamb ($7200) could be another beneficiary of a Pollard absence as his slot role could be very productive against the Washington Football Team who have allowed the fifth-most targets and fourth-most PPR points to Slot WRs this year. The WFT defense has been on fire since their bye week so we’ll see if that holds up but I still like the Cowboys passing game in this spot and will consider their other two WRs here as well.
The Bills at Bucs is the game I want to build around or get the most exposure to this week. That being said, the most expensive WRs from each team give me a slight pause. Stefon Diggs ($8100) has had greater than 100-yards in only 2 out of 12 games, he’s 3Xed his salary in 2 out of 12, had greater than 20 DK points in only 4 of 12, had greater than 10 targets in 5 of 12; and had at least 1 TD in 6 of 12. That’s not a lot of high-end data to rely on at his price but the game environment itself could push him to a good game. I’d reserve him for tournament play though. The Bills best CB with Tre White out is slot corner Taron Johnson, who will be on Chris Godwin ($7100). Only the Chargers have allowed fewer points to Slot WRs this year. It would be better to let the field chase Godwin’s box score from last week and target Mike Evans ($6600) this week and reserve Godwin for tournament play. Breshad Perriman ($3000) was on the field for 84% of the snaps and had 3 targets last week after the Bucs elevated him from the practice squad. Perriman’s role could grow and will include the deep shots when they’re there — and he’s minimum-priced on DK. He’s another idea for a price-considered play in tourneys and could be viable in cash, depending on what you’re allocating the salary savings toward. Gabe Davis ($3500) has at least 3 targets in five of the last six games and seems to be carving out a Red Zone role lately (he has 5 End-Zone targets for the year). Davis could easily 4x his $3500 salary as he has 30-50 family/friends coming to the game he needs to impress. Narrative aside, the Bills seem to be growing trust with Davis and when he’s on the field it’s usually because he’s one o the primary reads on the play. Like Perriman, Davis is better suited for tourney play but you can use one or the other in cash if needing the salary elsewhere. However, there is an even better cheap WR out there I’ll discuss next.
The Chargers seem likely to be without Keenan Allen this week and also need Mike Williams ($6000) to fail his Covid tests as a close contact so that he can play on Sunday. What does this mean for the Chargers aerial attack without Allen? Well, I would first think Williams (if he plays) will see the volume he was seeing to start the year (10-12 targets) that includes deep shots for big upside. I would also expect Jalen Guyton ($3400) to pick up most of the slot reps that Allen will be vacating. Guyton split his reps between the slot and the outside last week and seems like the guy to take that role. Guyton is coming off of a breakout game (for him) with a 4 catch, 90-yard, 1 TD game last week that included Keenan on the field. Guyton has the best price-considered upside of any WR on the slate. If Allen and Williams are out, then we get another cheap WR play from the Chargers with Joshua Palmer ($3000).
Other WRs I’m am considering this week include Jarvis Landry ($5400) against a Ravens team that just lost its top CB, and Tyler Lockett ($6700) has had a solid three-week stretch and Metcalf continues to add nothing for the Seahawks this year,
Tight End
It’s Travis Kelce ($7400) or bust for me this week. The Raiders are tougher to throw against on the edges while TEs have been their weakness all year. If you’re not interested in paying all the way up at TE, there is Dawson Knox ($5000) against the Tampa defense that has had a soft spot for TEs. The top pay-down play at TE this week might be Jared Cook ($3200) with Allen out, Williams still needing to clear protocol, and Ekeler a bit gimpy.
Defense/Special Teams
The top DST plays this week are going to be whoever plays the New York teams, which means the Chargers DST ($4300) and the Saints DST ($3600) are worth paying up for if we can. There isn’t much in the pay-down range I would consider but the Texans DST ($2400) seems like the one I’d go if needing salary relief. They’re at home against a banged-up and lifeless Seattle offense. I’ll probably settle into something like the Panthers DST ($2800) or the Chiefs DST ($3300) myself.
Cash Game Core
Using the players listed above, you could construct something along these lines. However, keep in mind, I am not advising using this build. You should come to your own conclusions and build a roster you are most comfortable with for your style of play.
