Week 14 Fantasy Football Sleepers

By Corbin Young | December 9, 2021

Week 14 Fantasy Football Sleepers

In a pivotal Week 14 matchup, fantasy managers may need to plug in fantasy football sleepers with the Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, and Eagles on their bye week. Most of the Week 14 fantasy football sleepers include players to start as streamers or flex spots in deeper formats with some upside or a safe floor. We’ll review the Week 13 sleeper picks and use the advanced metrics to guide our Week 14 sleeper options. 

Last Week’s Sleeper Recap

Overall, not a great week with the Week 13 sleeper picks with only Tevin Coleman, Devonta Freeman, and Van Jefferson hitting. Meanwhile, the rest stunk it up or barely garnered opportunities, which led to the lack of production. That’s the case with Jaret Patterson, Boston Scott, and Jack Doyle. With Patterson, I noted it’s a dart throw play with the scenario that Antonio Gibson receives more work. 

The Eagles ruled Boston Scott active after dealing with an illness. Then he played three snaps total with and without Miles Sanders healthy on Sunday. Kenneth Gainwell surfaced with 17 touches (12 rush and five receptions) for 87 total yards and a rushing touchdown. Scoop up Gainwell if he’s available if Miles Sanders doesn’t return healthy after their Week 14 bye week. However, that might be enough time for Sanders, Jordan Howard, and Boston Scott to return healthy. 

The Colts possessed the ball for over 41 minutes, and Carson Wentz threw for 158 passing yards on 22 attempts. Jonathan Taylor dominated with 143 rushing yards on 32 attempts with two touchdowns. That said, T.Y. Hilton couldn’t continue smashing against the Texans with only two receptions for 22 receiving yards. Also, Jack Doyle only caught one pass for 13 yards. Both pass-catchers didn’t produce due to the game script. 

Against the Washington Football Team, Derek Carr threw for 249 passing yards on 38 attempts with no touchdowns or interceptions. Carr rushed for 24 yards, but the lack of touchdowns kept the floor low. Without Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow feasted with nine receptions and 102 receiving yards on ten targets. Unfortunately, Foster Moreau only caught one pass for 34 receiving yards against a WFT that ranked middle of the pack. 

On a positive note, Tevin Coleman led the Jets backfield again with 58 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards on 14 total touches. Coleman remains a touchdown-dependent RB3 that should provide 60-70 yards. Van Jefferson finished second on the team in a blowout win against the Jaguars. Interestingly, Jefferson didn’t lead the Rams in Air Yards, but rather, Odell Beckham Jr. garnered 114 Air Yards for a 32.3% Air Yards Share. That’s different usage for Jefferson with 57 Air Yards and a 16.1% Air Yards Share, both of which finished lower than Cooper Kupp. It’s something to monitor for Jefferson moving forward since that could lead to better efficiency. 

Devonta Freeman finished just shy of 100 total yards with 52 rushing and 45 receiving yards. Freeman scored a rushing touchdown with 19 total touches on 22 opportunities. Fantasy managers should value Freeman as a backend RB2, assuming the receiving opportunities remain high. Freeman finished No. 9 in PPR amongst running backs heading into Monday night.

Week 14 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Cam Newton vs. ATL

The Falcons allow the second-most fantasy points to the position. We witnessed the highs and lows with Cam Newton in the two games started in Week 11 and 12 with a QB5 and QB30 performance. However, in a friendly matchup against the Washington Football Team, Newton smashed with two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. The Dolphins’ defense has improved from earlier, so Newton struggled as expected. Look for Newton to bounce back after their bye week in Week 14 against the Falcons. 

Ryan Tannehill vs. JAC

It’s risky to rely on Ryan Tannehill with the fantasy production trending down with a QB17 and QB29 performance in Week 11 and 12. Add in A.J. Brown missing plus Derrick Henry’s injury, and the Titans’ offense looks less enticing. The Jaguars ranked No. 16 in fantasy points allowed to the position, so it’s not a friendly matchup to quarterbacks. It’s partially because the Jaguars allow the 9th-most fantasy points to the running back positive, and they typically play from behind with a -8.53 (No. 31) Game Script. 

On the flip side, the Jaguars allowed the 4th-most net yards per attempt at 7.1 behind the Lions, Jets, and Ravens. In the past, Ryan Tannehill boasted uber-efficiency with 9.1 (No. 1) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt in 2019 and 8.2 (No. 4) in 2020. However, Tannehill ranks No. 28 with a 5.9 Adjusted YPA in 2021. Again, Tannehill serves as a risky Week 14 sleeper with the potential for passing efficiency against an underrated Jaguars defense.  

JaMycal Hasty at CIN

Since Jeff Wilson and Elijah Mitchell suffered injuries, scoop up JaMycal Hasty and monitor the injury reports. Trey Sermon already landed on injured reserve, and Hasty serves as the only fantasy-relevant back on the 49ers that’s healthy. The 49ers used Hasty as their passing-down back with a 10.8% target share. However, Hasty never garnered more than ten opportunities in any game outside of Week 2 against the Eagles. 

Although Hasty may not garner the elite workload like Elijah Mitchell, here’s a glimpse at the upside. In 2021, Mitchell boasts a 78.9% (No. 4) Opportunity Share and 127.3 (No. 25) Weighted Opportunities on a 49ers squad that ranks 5th with 29.5 Team Run Plays Per Game. With Mitchell inactive in Week 11, Jeff Wilson totaled 19 rushing attempts plus two targets for 58 total yards. Although the total yards stunk for Wilson, we witness the 49ers again giving a hefty workload to one back. Assuming Mitchell and Wilson miss Week 13, we should expect the same from Hasty with 5.3 yards per touch and a 127.8 (88th-percentile) Burst Score. 

D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard vs. JAC

Without Derrick Henry, the Titans showed the willingness to split the backfield touches with D’Onta Foreman, Adrian Peterson, Jeremy McNichols, and Dontrell Hilliard. Assuming McNichols misses Week 14, or the Titans noticed what Foreman and Hilliard produced in Week 13, there’s a chance the backfield touches go through two backs instead of three. 

Against the Patriots, who allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the position, Foreman and Hilliard combined for 245 total yards. Foreman led the team with 19 rushing attempts in Week 12, but Hilliard edged Foreman in yardage. However, the snap share looked almost identical, with 49.2% for Hilliard and 47.6% for Foreman.

Look for the Titans to utilize their backs in Week 14 against the Jaguars since they lack skill players outside of a possibly healthy Julio Jones. Once again, we’ll note the Jaguars rank middle of the pack with the 14th-most rushing yards and the 9th-most fantasy points. In Week 14, value Hilliard and Foreman as RB3s or flex players if they continue to split the work between those two with a preference towards Foreman due to game script. 

Darrel Williams vs. LV

In Week 13, their first game after the bye week, Darrel Williams shared snaps with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. However, Edwards-Helaire bested Williams in total yardage with 76 and 82 plus double-digit rushing attempts in each game. Interestingly, in our two-game sample, Williams ran more routes than Edwards-Helaire. However, they compiled a near-identical amount of receptions.

On the season, Williams rates well in the receiving metrics with a 9.3% (No. 29) target share, 9.8 (No. 3) yards per reception, and 1.66 (No. 19) yards per route run amongst qualified backs. Roll out Williams in Week 14 against the Raiders as an RB3 with upside even though he likely won’t repeat Week 10 as the RB1 with 144 total yards and a touchdown. 

Laquon Treadwell & Laviska Shenault at TEN

Fool me once, fool me twice, go back to the well the third time. Is that how the saying goes? We preface the Jaguars receivers and Laviska Shenault suggestion with extreme risk given the awful Jaguars offense. Even Laquon Treadwell factors in now as the Jaguars continue to feed the likes of Tavon Austin the ball. Over the past two weeks, Treadwell leads the Jaguars receivers in receiving yards (115), Air Yards (133), and Air Yards Share (25%). Shenault edges Treadwell in target share at 20.3% compared to 18.8%. However, the main difference involves the Air Yards and aDOT. Treadwell has a 10.2 aDOT and 5.8 for Shenault over the past two weeks. 

Marvin Jones looks like the Jaguars deep-threat with a 23.7% Air Yards Share in Week 12 and 13 with a 12.6 aDOT that leads the Jaguars trio. So why are we discussing the Jaguars, particularly Shenault and Treadwell? The Titans allow the most receiving yards to the position and the second-most fantasy points. Unfortunately, since Week 8, Trevor Lawrence looks brutal. Since that point, Lawrence averaged 174.8 passing yards and five YPA. Add in the -20.3 EPA, and that’s almost unplayable. For reference, quarterbacks with a similar EPA since Week 8 include Davis Mills (-19) and Daniel Jones (-20.8). 

Again, it’s a risky option to consider any Jaguars receiver, but Laquon Treadwell and Laviska Shenault warrant consideration as a Week 14 sleeper in deep leagues, given the juicy matchup. Shenault should provide an unexciting PPR floor, and Treadwell deserves some attention since he played on over 91% of the snaps with season highs in routes the past two weeks.

Jamison Crowder vs. NO

The Elijah Moore breakout rookie season looks like it’s in full effect. However, Jamison Crowder touched double-digit fantasy points in two out of the past three games. Unfortunately, between Week 11 and 13, Crowder put up a dud with one reception and five receiving yards. Since Week 8, when Elijah Moore ascended, Crowder rocks a 14.5% target share, 6.5 aDOT, and 0.314 WOPR. Crowder proved he’s efficient with a Receiver Air Yards Conversion Rate (RACR) of 1.11. 

If we toss out that dud game, Crowder averaged 5.4 receptions and 50.6 receiving yards like a Hunter Renfrow-type profile. The Saints struggle against receivers with the 4th-most receiving yards and fantasy points to the position. Sometimes Marshon Lattimore shuts down receivers like Mike Evans, but Crowder doesn’t fit that profile. Unfortunately, Crowder lacks the upside like he once held with Elijah Moore ascending, but he’s worth rolling out there as a Week 14 sleeper in deep leagues as a WR4/5. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CHI

The Bears give up the 11th-most receiving yards with the 16th-most fantasy points to the position. Before their bye week, Marquez Valdes-Scantling earned 19 total targets in the past two games. Valdes-Scantling garnered a higher target share and Air Yards Share than Davante Adams in that span. Valdes-Scantling’s 25.3% target share and 47% Air Yards Share bested the 22.7% target share and 21.8% AY Share for Adams. 

Unsurprisingly, Valdes-Scantling boasts a high 0.708 WOPR with 17 aDOT that translates into a 0.536 RACR. Meanwhile, Adams looks uber-efficient with a 1.46 RACR with a 0.493 WOPR. Aaron Rodgers needs a consistent second option in the passing game outside of the running backs, and Valdes-Scantling’s role increased. A couple of weeks ago, I discussed a similar situation in Van Jefferson converting the Air Yards into receiving production. That said, treat Valdes-Scantling as a WR3 with upside as a Week 14 sleeper at the receiver position.  

Cole Kmet at GB

In three of the past four games, Cole Kmet earned an average of 8.7 targets per game with 5.7 receptions and 64.3 receiving yards. Kmet ranks 8th with an 83.5% Snap Share and 15th with 254 routes. The 25.2% (No. 10) Target Rate indicates the Bears look towards Kmet’s way when he’s on the field, and he plays and runs a full complement of snaps. Since Week 9, Kmet ranks 8th with a 0.426 WOPR, and he’s converting a decent chunk of the Air Yards with a 0.801 RACR. Kmet serves as a tight-end sleeper for Week 14 with a solid floor in PPR leagues. 

Evan Engram at LAC

Sometimes the fantasy points against the tight end position involve some noise. That’s possibly the case with the Chargers allowing the third-most fantasy points yet the 13th-most receiving yards. However, most of the tight-end production comes via touchdowns as the Chargers gave up ten on the season – second-most in the league behind the Eagles, who bleed fantasy points to TEs. 

There lies some risk with Evan Engram in Week 14, with Daniel Jones doubtful even though he put in a limited practice. Meanwhile, backup Mike Glennon suffered a concussion, which means Glennon could miss Week 14. That would leave the Giants with former Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm. Outside of a Breakout Age of 19.1 (88th-percentile), Fromm doesn’t pop off the page even though he consistently passed for 2,600 yards or more with a career YPA of 8.2 (55th-percentile). Let’s see if Fromm looks Engram’s way with the 9th best Average Cushion at 3.18 and 6th-most Target Separation at 2.13. That indicates Engram creates separation and should provide Fromm with an easy and open target in the passing game. 

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Corbin Young
Corbin is passionate about fantasy baseball and football. He loves diving into and learning about advanced metrics. Corbin is a Mariners and Seahawks fan living in the Pacific Northwest. Corbin's other hobbies are lifting weights, cooking, and listening to fantasy sports podcasts.
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