DraftKings Cash Game Tips
Week 3 is here and we’re ready to take a look at which players can help us win some money in 50/50’s, Double-Ups, and maybe even some Single Entry or 3 Max type contests with smaller field sizes. Let’s go!
Quarterback
Pricing on DraftKings is moving up and we’re now seeing 2 QBs over the $8k mark. Since I’d rather allocate salary at RB and WR I don’t think I’ll spend up at QB this week. A primary reason I’ll choose not to spend up is that we finally get a Justin Fields ($5200) week. After Andy Dalton went down in the early 2nd Quarter, Fields took over and carried the ball 10 times over the next two-plus quarters. The rushing floor will act as a buoy to anything he does passing and Cleveland’s defense is a good place to find fantasy points for QBs. The Browns have allowed 7.7 fantasy points (fourth-most) to QB rushes and the third-highest total points to QBs overall. Granted, some of that came from Patrick Mahomes, but the other half was Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills. Fields is looking like a massive bargain this week that we should roster before his salary pops into the $6k and higher ranges. Another QB in the sub-$6k area worth looking at here is Daniel Jones ($5800). Atlanta has not figured out how to properly execute Dean Pees’ defense and they will travel to New York for another lesson. Jones looks like a new QB this year with only 2 Turnover Worthy Plays charted by the folks at Pro Football Focus, including zero last week. No defense has allowed more points to QBs than the Falcons this year and they may be down their best corner if A.J. Terrell misses this game due to his concussion. Jones also brings a running game to keep his floor up, rushing for 122 yards and 2 TDs on 15 carries over the first two weeks of the season.
Running Back
At Running Back we need to monitor the status of Dalvin Cook’s ($8200) ankle. If he’s good to go, he’s one of the most certain plays on the slate facing a Seattle defense that just got ran over by Derrick Henry and allows the second-most targets to RBs (11/g) in the league. Cook saw 7 targets against a Bengals front that was hard to run on early in the game and he could be used in both facets of the game again here, as both of these teams will prefer to rely on their ground games and hurry the game to the 4th Quarter before throwing their haymakers. Najee Harris ($6600) once again handled nearly all of the RB snaps (95% of snaps) and 88% of the RB touches for Pittsburgh last year. That is an $8k running back’s workload coming at a discount because he has yet to pop for a monster game. If Diontae Johnson doesn’t play, perhaps we see more from Harris in the passing game to fill those short-area targets Johnson often gets. Harris had 5 targets last week and it’s an area of his game the Steelers should utilize more, as their OL hasn’t been able to spring him free through any big holes yet this year. Harris comes with some risk due to that OL and may be a better SE/3-Max play than cash play and there’s an RB priced $100 lower that also sees a giant share of his team’s RB snaps and opportunity. Saquon Barkley ($6500) is likely heading to a lot of our opponent’s rosters this week but his situation warrants it and we should also strongly consider him for our builds. Barkley is coming off an 84% snap share where he had a short week to recover from Week 1. The snaps share and 76% of the RB workload are a sign of confidence in Barkley’s knee by the Giants and now he’s had 3 extra days of rest to be ready to attack an Atlanta defense that has the second-worst increase in Rushing DVOA (a Football Outsiders metric) from 2020 to 2021, which means they are worse at stopping the run than last year. Atlanta is also allowing the second-highest rate of targets to RBs at 13 per game, which accounts for 31% of the targets their defense has faced so far. Across the field from Barkley will be Mike Davis ($5100) who has yet to get going after facing two of the toughest run defenses in the league to start the season. So far, we’ve seen what we should consider Davis’ floor going forward with two games of 10.2 and 13.3 DK Points. With the ease up in rush defense, the Falcons will see this week, we should start to see them move to a more balanced attack and Davis will face a defense with the 4th highest year over year increase in Rushing DVOA, and he’s shown a nice target total to start the season.
Wide Receiver
Washington’s stout defensive line has been rock-solid against opponent rushing attacks again this year and the Buffalo Bills will game plan around what works best for them, so don’t expect to see a bunch of carries by Singletary and Moss if they’re getting stuffed early. Instead, expect to see Buffalo come out swinging and trying to put the game on Taylor Heinicke’s shoulders in this matchup. That means a lot of Josh Allen ($7000), who is also a viable cash play this week, and his receivers getting them out to an early, and preferably insurmountable lead. Stefon Diggs ($7600) has the 7th most Targeted Air Yards for Wide Receivers and the 10th-highest WOPR among his peers, yet he’s turned in two games of 16 DK points, which is respectable. I’m expecting him to have a breakout game in this spot and be the best of the “pay up” WRs for this slate. Calvin Ridley ($7000) is the other receiver among the $7k and above group who is in a great spot. The Giants have not been covering the opposing team’s top WR well to start the year. Jerry Jeudy was having a great game before his injury then Terry McLaurin tore them up on Thursday Night Football. If Russell Gage were to miss this game, the target share for Atlanta condenses down to Ridley, Pitts, Davis, and Patterson for pecking order. Like Diggs, Ridley is sitting on a top-ten WOPR rating (9th) and looking like a breakout candidate for this week’s slate.
If Diontae Johnson ($6400) is healthy and plays this week, he continues to be a solid value play at cost. Sterling Shepard ($5900) is seeing usage above his price point and has a tasty match-up. Robert Woods ($5700) and Van Jefferson ($3400) are viable SE/3-Max plays since they see the more vulnerable outside corners in their matchup with Tampa Bay and act as leverage against Cooper Kupp in tournament play. Allen Robinson ($6200) and Darnell Mooney (4300) should benefit from a QB with a bigger arm and the mobility to buy time when the pocket collapses to find someone running free in the secondary. Odell Beckham ($5300) should, at least, 3x his salary in a matchup with the Bears who are funneling 73% of the passes they face out to the WR positions. Marvin Jones Jr ($4900) continues to look mispriced for his role. Jones has a diverse route tree allowing him to keep drives alive when Trevor Lawrence needs a reliable target, as well as running deeper routes, making him a “Deluxe” possession receiver with nice upside.
Tyler Boyd ($4700) matches up very well with how Pittsburgh has been allowing 14 targets per game to WRs lined up in the slot. Hunter Renfrow ($4000) has a solid ten-point floor going into his matchup with the slot-funneling Dolphins and he’s the second guy Carr looks for after Waller on a lot of plays. K.J. Osbourn ($3500) has become one of Kirk Cousins’ favorite go-to guys in clutch time. He was targeted on 3 of 7 passes during Week 1’s game-tying field goal drive, then 3 of 7 again in last week’s game-winning field goal drive. He’s the most severely mispriced WR on the slate.
Tight End
All of the top Tight Ends look to be in great spots this week. From Kelce, Waller, Gronkowski, Hockenson, Andrews, to Pitts we’re looking at a charcuterie tray of options that all look tasty. For cash games, it’s never a bad idea to roster either of those top two (Kelce/Waller) but this week allows for some flexibility if you want to slide down the salary pole a bit and spend elsewhere. My favorite play for this would be Kyle Pitts ($4900). We haven’t seen the true identity of the Falcons offense yet because of the defenses they’ve played. The Giants should provide a softer matchup for them to run more of what they hired Arthur Smith to bring to the table. So far this year, Smith has trotted out 50% of his play calls with the offense lined up in 12 or 13 personnel, so we know Pitts will be on the field. Per TruMedia, Pitts has lined up in 14 distinct (different) locations on the field. When he is on the field, Atlanta is averaging 5.3 yards per play versus a measly 2.6 yards per play when he’s not there. The Giants have allowed the most yards per drive, the third-most fantasy points to TEs, and 10 targets per game to that position. We may finally see Pitts reach his true potential in this game. T.J Hockenson ($5200) is in an interesting spot as well. The Ravens defense has faced off against each of the top-2 TEs in the NFL their first two weeks of the season (Kelce/Waller) and have allowed those guys to go bananas. Baltimore has allowed 14.5 targets per game (33% of all pass attempts against them) and 27.8 PPR points per game. Hockenson isn’t yet in the same tier as those two but he’s in the tier just below. We’ll see how Baltimore decides to cover him without any other threatening receivers on the outside to worry about. My second favorite TE play this week is Tyler Higbee ($4000). Higbee was chalky last week but was not in a good matchup. Indianapolis has been really tough for TEs to have good games against for the past few years. That is the opposite case when it comes to Tampa’s defense. Tampa Bay was the eighth-worst in DVOA against the TE position last year and has not shown any improvement to start 2021. This is the way their defense is designed though. Tampa wants to completely shut down their opponent’s run game and make them one-dimensional. They do this with a great front-seven but also with their offense dusting opponents early and not letting off the gas. Tampa is allowing the third-most targets per game to TEs (10.5). They also allow the 2nd-most targets per game to RBs, but if Darrell Henderson were to miss this game, it’ll probably be Higbee picking up extra targets over getting Sony Michel heavily involved in the passing game.
Defense/Special Teams
The Broncos DST (4300) tops my board as the best raw play for this slate. They’re at home in the altitude against a Jets offense that ties the Dolphins for the worst ranking in Football Outsiders “Drive Success Rate” metric, while also tying the Dolphins for worst in Points Per Drive. The Jets 24.3 Yards Per Drive is third-worst. Vic Fangio’s defense picked off fellow rookie QB Trevor Lawrence twice last week and should have plenty of coverage disguises to keep Zach Wilson off his game. The data just quoted also has me looking at the Las Vegas Raiders DST ($3400) against Jacoby Brissett, who has some gloomy statistics quoted in this tweet by Marcel Louis-Jacques on Twitter. If looking for a cheaper unit to save some salary this week, my best bet would be to hope for the Bengals DST ($2100) to put up 5 or 6 points against a Steelers offense that could be missing their best WR. The games between these rivals tend to be gritty, low-scoring affairs and Roethlisberger is nursing a pectoral injury that may affect his passes.
Cash Game Core
Using the players listed above, you could construct something along these lines. However, keep in mind, I am not advising using this build. You should come to your own conclusions and build a roster you are most comfortable with for your style of play.
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