Fantasy Football Sleepers
The big dog in Tennesse bulldozed the Seahawks with the team trailing on Sunday. However, we’re not here to talk about studs, but we’re looking at sleepers rostered under 40% of Yahoo leagues. Since we have a massive installment of Week 3 fantasy football sleepers, let’s head right to the Week 2 review and into our sleeper picks. As usual, we’ll use advanced metrics to undercover the reasons for optimism or concern with these sleepers.
Week 2 Review
Although Jared Goff didn’t put up a top-3 fantasy finish, he snuck into the top-15 amongst quarterbacks with 19.44 fantasy points (No. 15). We don’t expect Goff to rush for 46 yards, but it’s positive to see the yards per attempt of 6.8 increase from 5.9. Unfortunately, we’ll need a much higher adjusted yard per attempt given the low 6.1 (No. 25). We typically find top fantasy quarterbacks ranking highly in that metric. The volume looks skewed from Week 1, but Goff averaged 46.5 (No. 1) Team Pass Plays Per Game with 601 (No. 9) Air Yards, and he performed efficiently with a +9.8 (No. 9) Production Premium.
The Jaguars ran into a tough Broncos defense, and the whole offense stunk. However, James Robinson still dominated with a 68.6% Snap Share compared to Carlos Hyde’s 25.5% that dropped from 34.3%. Robinson ran more routes with 16 versus Hyde’s seven, and Hyde lacks the pass-catching role we look for in running backs. In Week 1, it seemed that the Jaguars might share the backfield roles more evenly, although it’s an error in my process for thinking that would continue. It’s a big whiff in recommending Hyde as a sleeper in Week 2.
Ty Johnson fared decently from a usage and yardage standpoint. Johnson’s 45.6% Snap Share in Week 2 looked identical to his Week 1 48.4%, but he led the Jets with a 42.9% rushing share compared to 39.3% for Michael Carter and 17.9% by Tevin Coleman. That said, drop Coleman and keep stashing Johnson and Carter.
Although I expected Ty Johnson to garner some targets, it doesn’t seem that Zach Wilson and Jets pass to their backs often. However, it’s a small two-game sample. Johnson didn’t win any leagues, but he holds flex value in deeper formats.
K.J. Hamler and Teddy Bridgewater couldn’t connect on a big play with some miscommunication. Hamler stunk from a production standpoint with a five-yard catch on three targets. However, Hamler nearly matched Tim Patrick with a 70.1% Snap Share and 29 routes for Patrick in Week 2. Meanwhile, Hamler finished with a 71.6% Snap Share plus ran 27 routes. Even Hamler’s 11% targets per route run sit right behind Patrick’s 13.8% in Week 2. Courtland Sutton dominated in Week 2, but the peripherals still point to Hamler’s opportunities remaining similar to Patrick even though Patrick scored the touchdown.
Digging in the advanced stats from Week 2
Tim Patrick vs. K.J. Hamler
-Snap Share – 70.1% vs. 71.6%
-Routes – 29 vs. 27
-Targets Per Route Run – 13.8% vs. 11%
-Air Yards Share – 5.9% vs. 14.7%Still holding out hope for Hamler 🤞#FantasyFootball
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 23, 2021
Exciting rookie Rondale Moore boomed with seven of eight targets for 114 receiving yards and one touchdown. Moore’s usage increased with a 50% Snap Share from 34.8%, so he’s still not seeing a full complement of snaps. DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green dominated the snap share both weeks, with Christian Kirk and Moore trailing. However, Moore’s 38.5% targets per route run (TPRR) in Week 1 matched Week 2 at 36.4%. It’s positive to see an elite prospect like Moore earn opportunities when on the field.
For context, Kirk finished with a 27.8% TPRR in Week 1 then 14.8% in Week 2. Green also trailed Moore with a 21.4% TPRR that dropped to 19.4% in Week 2. Jared Cook almost scored a touchdown in Week 2, and outside of the top-5 tight ends, the rest end up as touchdown-dependent options.
Quarterback
Daniel Jones vs. ATL
Don’t look now, but Daniel Jones averages 61 (No. 3) rushing yards per game amongst quarterbacks behind Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Just like we all expected, right. Last week, I mentioned the top fantasy quarterbacks rank highly in Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. Well, Daniel Jones averaged 7.4 (No. 15) Adjusted Y/A with 665 (No. 8) Air Yards.
With the best Adjusted Y/A of his career from 5.5 (No. 31) last year and 6.0 (No. 26) in 2019, Jones ranks as the top quarterback sleeper in Week 3. Oh, and the Falcons still have an awful defense allowing the most fantasy points (29.1) to the quarterback position.
Running Backs
Kenneth Gainwell at DAL
We expected the Eagles to have another back share opportunity with Miles Sanders, and rookie Kenneth Gainwell looks like the team’s RB2. Although Gainwell’s touchdown excited fantasy managers in Week 1, the usage for him remains low. Gainwell averages a 33.6% (No. 45) Snap Share and 37.5% (No. 41) Opportunity Share. He earns a healthy 10.7% (No. 26) target share, but Sanders possesses that ability too with 12.5% (No. 16) of the targets. Against Dallas, Gainwell could earn usage in a potentially high-scoring matchup.
Cordarrelle Patterson at NYG
Many Cordarrelle Patterson truthers, yelling “finally” after scoring two touchdowns for 23.9 (No. 4) fantasy points in Week 2. Unfortunately, the entire Falcons offense doesn’t look great through two games. Although Patterson’s 35.7% Snap Share looked identical to Week 1 with 33.3%, Patterson ran more routes in Week 2. Patterson equaled Mike Davis in targets, but Patterson’s 40% TPRR topped Davis’ 29.2% in Week 2.
The Giants project as a soft matchup against running backs allowing the 6th most fantasy points (22.3) through two weeks. Patterson looks like a sleeper running back and hot waiver wire pickup with his efficient production. He averaged 6.5 (No. 5) yards per touch, 4.33 (No. 3) Yards Created Per Touch, and a +38.9 (No. 6) Production Premium. Even if Patterson’s role and usage won’t increase much, he could still provide efficient production, especially in the receiving game. Patterson boasts 10.1 (No. 8) yards per reception and 3.23 (No. 5) yards per route run through two weeks. Just more advanced metrics to align with Patterson’s sleeper appeal.
Wide Receivers
Jalen Reagor at DAL
Don’t write off Jalen Reagor after an injury-riddled rookie season and a down Week 2. Reagor almost scored a touchdown that ended up called back since he stepped out of bounds upon review against the 49ers. Although Jalen Hurts put up QB1 performances, the team holds a low passing volume with 29.5 (No. 35) Team Pass Plays Per Game.
Unfortunately, not many of the underlying metrics look positive for Reagor with a 19.6% (No. 44) target share, 100 (No. 62) Air Yards, and 21.6% (No. 58) Air Yards Share. However, Reagor’s 92 (No. 30) Air Yards looked decent in Week 2. If the passing volume remains low, Reagor and the Eagles pass-catchers may have to rely on efficiency. The Cowboys allowed the 6th most fantasy points to receivers through two weeks, and thus Reagor ends up as the top receiver sleeper in Week 2.
Sammy Watkins at DET
Through two games, surprisingly, Sammy Watkins garnered the 9th highest target share at 29.4%. Watkins also earned a 33.5% (No. 25) Air Yards Share. Interestingly, Watkins edges out Marquise Brown with an 86.7% (No. 26) Snap Share compared to a 72.6% (No. 55) for Brown. Watkins mostly holds name-value without much fantasy production in past seasons.
Outside of target share on a team that still averages a low Team Pass Plays Per Game at 28 (No. 37), Watkins’ advanced metrics look decent but nothing elite. Watkins may need to rely on efficiency most weeks, and his 9.3 (No. 31) Yards Per Target and 2.37 (No. 29) Yards Per Route Run rank middle of the pack. Although the Lions allow the 19th most fantasy points (23.3) to receivers, roll out Watkins as a deep-league sleeper with multiple flex spots.
Bonus Sleeper Receiver
Since the tight ends with a roster rate below 40% on Yahoo don’t look that exciting, we’ll give you an additional sleeper receiver pick. Evan Engram against the Falcons looks like the easy pick, but let’s undercover another sleeper via the advanced stats.
Emmanuel Sanders vs. WAS
If we found a receiver with the 12th most Air Yards and seven targets per game through two weeks on a passing offense with the 8th most Team Pass Plays Per Game (42), most fantasy managers would want that receiver. Emmanuel Sanders garnered 235 (No. 12) Air Yards with a 32.2% (No. 30) Air Yards Share and a 17.9% (No. 55) target share. Josh Allen targets Sanders deep with a 16.8 (No. 13) Average Target Distance yet brutal efficiency metrics.
Unfortunately, the Bills offense hasn’t picked up where it left off last year, but that’s hard to sustain the high level of success for long periods. Sanders’ 7.1 (No. 57) Yards Per Target, 1.47 (No. 55) Yards Per Route Run, and -24.7 (No. 161) Production Premium look awful. The passing volume will remain high for Sanders as a sleeper for a weekly flex spot in deeper leagues.
