DraftKings Cash Game Core: Week 7

DraftKings Cash Game Tips

With one-third of the season in the books, we turn the page to the second trimester and take what we know (or think we know) and apply it to our Cash Games and small field Single Entry and 3-Max tournaments. There are several lopsided games on the slate that can be cause for concern. Will those teams be aggressive all game or how early will they be able to take their foot off of the gas pedal? We have the goodness of the condensed offense of the Chiefs and Titans going at it and having their offensive strengths also be the opposing defense’s weakness. Then we have some low-key games that look like they may be competitive and provide profitable plays to pluck. Let’s have a look.

Quarterback

Only two of the top-five QBs this week are slated to play in a competitive game, per the bookmakers. Patrick Mahomes ($8400) is in the best game environment on the slate and is an obvious starting point if we’re building rosters that take advantage of this spot. Due to the condensed nature of the Chiefs offense, we’re probably stacking him with either (or both of) Tyreek Hill ($8600) and/or Travis Kelce ($7600) – or we’re correlating a skinny Chiefs stack with someone like Derrick Henry ($9200), A.J. Brown ($6300), or Julio Jones ($6100). As we can see, this correlated stack is going to take a huge chunk of our salary, so we’ll have to explore some value plays through this piece to give us a chance to bank on this game, if so choosing. We could start to save some salary by pivoting from Mahomes to Ryan Tannehill ($6400) who is in a good spot with Vegas implying a 26 point total to come from the Titans. The Chiefs have been beaten by running QBs all year, until last week (hello, where’d you go Heinicke?). If this continues, then Tannehill has some rushing floor to fall back on and we know the Titans should be chasing points in this one. 


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If we’re looking to build rosters not involving the Chiefs/Titans game, then we might want to look at someone like Jalen Hurts ($6900), who has scored at least 21 DK points in every game this year. His rushing floor has provided at least 3 points in every game and he’s scored two touchdowns in all but one game so far. The Raiders are not going to be pushovers but this is a game environment that I am highly interested in due to the implied total and narrow spread. This should be a competitive game throughout and offers what could be the best game environment for the afternoon games – giving us late swap leverage if needed. If we’re scraping the bottom of the salary barrel, I think we might be able to get a solid, price-considered score out of Justin Fields ($5300). The Buccaneers have shut down every opposing running game they have faced, and have been doing so for the past two years. Fields is going to be forced into throwing the ball and scrambling for yards in this game. 

Running Back

As mentioned above, Derrick Henry ($9200) finds himself in a plus matchup in the best game environment on the slate. At this point with Henry, we have to consider his price relative to what we expect from him. In cash, a general rule of thumb is to find at least 3x salary floor. That would put Henry at 27.6 points, which he’s scored in 4 out of 6 games this year. It’s not out of the question to expect that again in this spot but we may also want to look for 25+ points at a lower cost. Henry is a fine play, but let’s look at the rest of the RBs to see if there is anyone else worth considering should we eschew him this week. The first one that stands out for me would be Darrell Henderson ($6600). Henderson has been very consistent in his scoring this year, although he does not have the ceiling that we’d get from Henry. Henderson is in one of the better RB spots this week against a Detroit team getting hammered by opposing RBs to the tune of 28.9 / 45.9 / 5.8 / 38.3 / 31 / 43.3 PPR scoring for the first 6 weeks. Amazingly, the 5.8 was against a run-heavy Baltimore team, in which Lamar Jackson only added another 5.8 on the ground. The field will be interested in Stafford versus his old team and Cooper Kupp, so Henderson might be a decent leverage play in tournaments. Next on the list of RBs with great setups is Leonard Fournette ($6400). Lenny has garnered the heaviest load from this backfield for the past three weeks, including plenty of targets making him game-script-proof. The Bears will be tougher to run on if Akiem Hicks is back but I would still consider Fournette in this spot where Tampa can take their foot off the gas in the second half, if they choose to, and allow Fournette to salt it away. Cordarrelle Patterson ($6300) is hard to ignore coming off a week of rest and facing the second-highest points allowed to RBs defense this week against Miami. The Dolphins do not care if you beat them on the ground or throw to your RBs, which opens Patterson up for all kinds of opportunities. 

Chuba Hubbard ($6100) is in a nice spot this week against a Giants defense allowing 27.8 PPR points to RBs (fifth-most of the slate) and playing for a coach that wants to emphasize the running game moving forward. Damien Harris ($5700) sets up for another good shot at 100-yards and a TD against a very soft Jets run defense that has allowed the most points to opposing RBs on the slate. Rhamondre Stevenson’s ($4700) usage seemed to come more in the passing game than toting the ball, leaving Harris to handle most of the carries, but Stevenson had a bunny touchdown last week to snipe Harris from going for 100-yards and two tuddies. It’s something to keep an eye on and if you’re a dice-roller, you may want to consider Stevenson over Harris in tourneys due to the passing game involvement and the goal line opportunity he saw. Miles Sanders ($5100) could make some sense in SE/3-Max games with Philly coming off a long week (played last Thursday) to self-scout and recalibrate their offensive identity. Sanders has handled 29 of the RB opportunities compared to Gainwell’s 7 over the last two weeks and the Eagles know they need to get him involved more. J.D. McKissic ($5000) is typically a solid bet in games that Washington is projected to get behind in, which is the case this week in Green Bay.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams ($8900) heads the salary at WR this week. I don’t often write up the top-dollar WRs in this space but Adams is interesting in a week where a lot of folks will allocate their big spending on Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Cooper Kupp. Henry is the only player priced higher than Adams this week making Adams for a great pivot if you’re playing the contrarian angle of the Chiefs/Titans players disappointing in terms of price-considered scores. Meanwhile, Adams goes for 10 catches,150-yards, and a touchdown or two at minimal rostership. D.J. Moore ($7100) is in a prime bounce-back spot this week against the Giants secondary allowing the fourth-most DK points to WRs. Take a look at the chart below and how bad the Giants secondary is in completion percentage allowed and yards per completion. We could even try rostering Robby Anderson ($4800), who is getting $6k WR volume but has been terribly inefficient to this point. Perhaps he finally has a game worth rostering, especially at his depressed price.

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As discussed in the Quarterbacks section, Tyreek Hill ($8600), A.J. Brown ($6300), and Julio Jones ($6100), if he plays, are all in consideration because of that game environment being the best on the slate. One more name to consider from this group, who comes into play if Julio is out, would be Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3300). NWI, as the beat refers to him, seems to be the receiver with the most to gain in situations where Julio or AJB miss time. Below is an example of what can be done using the Fantasy Data “NFL Snap Counts Data” tool and something I created for myself when trying to solve the Titans WR riddle. 

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Brandin Cooks ($6000) is fifth in targets per snap this year (called Hog Rate in our Advanced Metric tool), holds the fourth-highest target share in the NFL, and has the 11th-highest air yards per game. He’s a solid discount this week in a game that Houston will likely have to throw a lot to not get completely embarrassed by the Cardinals. My favorite price-considered play of the slate is Sterling Shepard ($5600). With Golladay and Toney (not to mention Saquon) set to miss this week’s game, the offense is going to flow through Shepard and Darius Slayton ($4000) this week. With the Panthers defense more apt to allow catches in the short and intermediate areas, it’s Shepard that should get the bulk of the work. Slayton is more interesting in larger-field or multi-entry tourney’s but is on my radar for now due to his modest salary.

In the under-$5k range, we could look at Darnell Mooney ($4600) as the deep threat in a game where Fields will be forced to throw, and he has a good rapport with Mooney. Poor Allen Robinson ($5100) has not had more than 4 catches in a game with Fields yet, while Mooney has two games with 5 catches from Fields and has a 100-yard game in one and a TD in another game with him. One of these guys could have a solid, price-considered score and I would lean toward Mooney or another player I’ll mention in the next section. I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention Mecole Hardman ($4300) here. In cash games, all we need from him to hit value would be 13 points. With everyone’s focus on Tyreek and Kelce in this offense, we should at least consider Hardman and his 5+ targets in half of his games played this year as a way to gain exposure to this game and possibly steal some points from the Tyreek and Kelce owners if he plays better than the field thinks. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($4100) continues to see volume above his pricing and could be involved often in Jared Goff’s revenge game. St. Brown has seen eight, eight, and seven targets over the past three weeks. 

Quez Watkins ($3900) is more tourney play than cash gameplay but he might be able to find enough points to be cash game worthy once the games are played. He’s interesting to me from the perspective that the Eagles just traded away Zach Ertz and will probably move to more 11-personnel in his absence. Watkins has shown to be the most reliable receiver in terms of coming down with tough catches and he is their top deep threat. It would only take one 60-yard touchdown for him to pay off. Van Jefferson ($3500) is another dart-throw, tourney play where you’re telling yourself the story that Stafford, Kupp, and Woods have all earned an early dismissal and he manages to grab enough of Wolford’s passes (plus any he gets with Stafford) to make him interesting. 

Tight End

As is the case in most weeks, Travis Kelce ($7600) is our top play on the slate and he fits into the top game environment nicely. If we’re looking for other options, we could slide down in salary a touch and go with Darren Waller ($6700) against an Eagles defense that has been funneling targets and fantasy points inside to the TE position. Both options in the Falcons/Dolphins game are appealing as both Kyle Pitts ($5900) and Mike Gesicki ($4700) are in offenses with a condensed distribution of targets. Assuming Dallas Goedert ($4600) is back, he’ll now be the only TE of significance for the Eagles and he’s playing against a TE funnel defense. His ex-teammate Zach Ertz ($3900) is also in a prime match-up against the Texans and the Cardinals could use this opportunity to get him up to speed by throwing him a ton of balls. If we’re looking for a cheap option, Cole Kmet ($3000) is another in a large group facing off against a TE funnel defense and should see a boost in targets due to his game environment as a whole.

Defense/Special Teams

This looks like another tricky week for bargain shopping with DST. The lowest I might be willing to go would be the Eagles DST ($2300) and hope the extra rest and self-scouting pays off. The Falcons DST ($2700) has some appeal after their bye week against an injury riddle Dolphins offense that has a bad offensive line. The Cardinals DST ($3100) should be able to get enough sacks and turnover to put up points and could shut the Texans out. Bill Belichick’s Patriot’s DST ($3400) against a struggling rookie QB and play-caller is interesting.

Cash Game Core

Using the players listed above, you could construct something along these lines. However, keep in mind, I am not advising using this build. You should come to your own conclusions and build a roster you are most comfortable with for your style of play.

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Jess Jones
NorCal native Jesse Jones has been obsessed with fantasy football since first joining and winning a league in 1994. Always looking for an edge, Jess has been ahead of the curve mining data and building customized spreadsheet rankings and projections while others showed up to draft day asking for a pencil and a cheat sheet. Avid DFS, Best Ball and Re-Draft player that dabbles lightly in Dynasty. When not geeking out on Fantasy Football, Jess can be found hiking, kayaking, swimming, playing tabletop games, cooking, trading equities, listening to good tunes and/or enjoying a craft brew or two.
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