DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 16
The NFL Week 16 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With fifteen weeks’ worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Week 15 Results
Below are my cash game results in Week 15 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:
Results:
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 341/5295
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 350/5148
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 199/2933
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 304/4453
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 388/5452
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 557/8446
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 191/2873
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 298/4776
This was a great week in cash games for me, and it all came down to avoiding the Justin Herbert let-down game. He was around 40%-50% rostered in many contests in what was thought to be a great spot. He threw up a dud that let players who walked around that landmine shoot past those teams, even if they had some bad plays as my team did. There was also a huge advantage to rostering Zay Jones as one of your cheap wide receivers. With a relatively weak pool of receivers and the knowledge I was going to pay up at quarterback, I was always going to go with two cheap receivers in this lineup. The Jaguars were projected to be down, which meant a game script that would require Trevor Lawrence to air it out. The game ended up being competitive and going into overtime, but for the number of targets Jones is seeing lately, he was too cheap no matter what. And to answer a popular question, no I was never worried about Mahomes on the road against a Texans team that is top-five against opposing quarterbacks.
Week 15 Cash Plays
Quarterback
Justin Fields ($7,500) has all but come out and said that he is on a mission to break Lamar Jackson’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback. He needs about 70 yards per game to accomplish that and what better place to start than against Buffalo in some truly abysmal weather at home? Fields has at least 21 DraftKings points every week since Week 7 because of the elite rushing floor. He has at least 12 rush attempts in six of his last eight games which helps mitigate the frequent games when he has less than 200 passing yards.
Geno Smith ($5,800) is priced way too low for what he is likely to be asked to do in a matchup against the Chiefs where the Seahawks are 10-point underdogs to Kansas City. Smith’s weak 15 points last game against San Francisco stopped a streak of five straight games with at least 21 DraftKings points and two touchdowns thrown. Now, in a game where he is likely to throw early and often, he gets a salary drop from $6,100 to $5,800.
Gardner Minshew ($4,800) Is in play at such a low salary this week, even against a tough Dallas defense. Minshew may not be 10% the offensive threat that Jalen Hurts is, but he still has A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and a whole host of offensive weapons in addition to perhaps the best offensive line in football. The Cowboys have allowed at least 20 points in three of the last four games.
Running Back
Derrick Henry ($8,600) almost can’t be priced high enough for this matchup against the Houston Texans. Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out, which means Malik Willis will start at quarterback. This exact scenario happened in Week 8 and Henry piled up 219 rushing yards and two touchdowns for 38.8 fantasy points. For his career, Henry averages 118 yards and a touchdown against the Texans. I’m considering that his floor in this matchup against the Texans who allow the most fantasy points to the position.
Saquon Barkley ($7,900) is somehow back below $8,000 despite putting up 23 fantasy points against Washington on Monday. This week, he avoids the bad weather and gets the Minnesota Vikings in a dome in a game with a strong 48-point total. The Vikings allow 30.4 actual points per game to opponents over the last five weeks as their defense has completely fallen off a cliff lately. The Vikings also allow the sixth-most receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs.
Jerick McKinnon ($5,900) is the number one running back each of the past two weeks and only is at $5,900 this week. Do we trust him again? McKinnon has made his money in the receiving game the last two weeks, averaging 8.5 targets and 90 receiving yards per game. Those were both games that were projected to be blowouts but turned into one-score affairs against the Texans and Broncos. Do we think lightning strikes three times against Seattle in Week 16? Seattle has the weapons to keep this game close, and that bodes well for McKinnon who gets all goal-line, two-minute, passing down, and hurry-up work in this Chiefs’ offense.
J.K. Dobbins ($5,800) has been phenomenal in his two games since he returned from his latest injury setback. He averages 14 carries for 122.5 yards in those two games and now only sits at $5,800 in a matchup against the lowly Falcons’ defense. The past two weeks have shown that Baltimore wants to continue to run the ball, but they can’t rely on Tyler Huntley’s passing ability. Lamar Jackson has been ruled out for this game, so a heavy workload is about to befall Dobbins.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) is back in our DFS lives after a brief one-week rest. Even in a tough matchup against the Jets in Week 15, St. Brown still saw 10 targets and turned it into seven catches for 75 yards and 15.2 DK points. Now, his salary remains the same (although it should be above $8,000 by now) and he gets a lighter matchup with the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers and the Lions both have a LOT to play for this week, so I expect Jared Goff to rely on his safety valve early and often.
D.K. Metcalf ($7,100) is pure DFS gold if Tyler Lockett does not play on Saturday with his finger injury. In that situation, 24% of the targets and 33% of the air yards in this offense would be up for grabs in a game that looks to be the most likely to shoot out. Lockett also has eight touchdowns to Metcalf’s six, so there is certainly some end zone and red zone equity that will be falling Metcalf’s way this weekend.
Juju Smith-Schuster ($5,800) has simply been a target monster over the past two games. He has 10 and 11 targets the last two weeks and that has led to an average of 20 DK points in that span. If we want a high-salary quarterback and we want Derrick Henry, we are going to be forced to find some sub-$6,000 wide receivers and Smith-Schuster is certainly one who fit that mold.
Richie James ($3,900) might be the best option for a wide receiver below $4,000 this week considering the steady volume and the elite matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the third-most DK points to wide receivers this season and has been torched lately by receivers on the Colts, Cowboys, and Lions. James has at least five targets in three of his last four games, resulting in three games over 13 fantasy points since Week 11.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($8,000) is going to be in play this week if you can spend up to get him. The Seahawks allow the second-most fantasy points to tight ends per game this year (16.8) and Kelce continues to be the focal point of the Chiefs’ passing attack. Kelce still demands 24% of the target share and 24% of the air yards share. His 12 touchdowns lead all players at the position as do his 28 targets in the red zone this year (11 more than any other tight end).
Daniel Bellinger ($3,300) may be the third New York Giants player recommended on this list, but trust me, I don’t feel good about it at all. Recommending three Giants players (Darius Slayton is in play too!) just feels wrong, but the matchup and game environment is so intriguing, it’s hard not to love these guys, especially at their salaries. We don’t have a Greg Dulcich or Chig Okonkwo on this slate that is just an obvious value under $3,500 so Bellinger is the closest we will get. He does have at least four targets in three of his last five games and the hope here is that Daniel Jones is forced to throw somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 times in this one.
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore Ravens DST ($3,200) get to try and replicate what the Pittsburgh Steelers did to Desmond Ridder last week. They want to make his life miserable just like last week was for Ridder and force him into a number of unforced turnovers on the road.
Philadelphia Eagles DST ($2,200) may be facing the Cowboys on Saturday, but they are still one of the more formidable crews in the game and have scored at least nine DK points in three straight games. If you’re punting a defense, the Eagles have all the talent in the world and Dak Prescott has been known to make a mistake or two per game lately.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. Anytime you build a lineup with multiple New York Giants players in it, it will look gross. But this is a good week to deploy them. Another option here would be to move down from Henry to Saquon Barkley and then move up from DJ Moore to someone like Jerick McKinnon.
