DraftKings NFL Picks: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts for Week One

DraftKings NFL Picks

We made it! Week 1 of the NFL season and the first big NFL DFS regular-season slate is finally upon us. Whether you were a reader of this column last year or just joining us for 2019, welcome aboard! “Chalk, Pivots, and Punts” is an NFL DFS series focused around main slate GPPs. We go game by game looking at potential chalk plays to pivot away from, and perhaps discover some diamond in the rough type punt plays to add a differentiation piece to our builds. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and Vegas Implied point spread as of time of writing. There will be a link to a Google Sheet that presents data I collect throughout the season breaking down points allowed to specific positions, and displays home/road splits, as well as the combined data. Below are links to the final data from last year I posted to Twitter.

• Link to Tweet: Chart showing where defenses allowed fantasy points by position last year
• Link to Tweet: Chart showing how defenses allowed TDs by Passing & Rushing last year

When discussing pivot plays, it’s not always as simple as saying “Player A” is chalk so pivot to “Player B”. Pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, a pivot from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be heavy to one side of. Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate.

Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.

Let’s get after it…

Los Angeles Rams (26.25/-2.5) at Carolina Panthers (23.75/+2.5) [50]

Both of these teams were hard to score fantasy points against on the ground last year but were more generous through the air. Carolina had a hard time stopping opponent WR2 and Slot-WRs in their home games last year. That puts Robert Woods ($6400) and Cooper Kupp ($5700) on the radar. Both guys could go low owned, especially Kupp if people are playing cautious with his return from an ACL tear less than 9 months ago. According to Jay Glazer, Kupp’s agility is better than it was prior to the injury. Kupp was Jared Goff’s ($6200) favorite target last year, and should see plenty of end zone targets again this year. Goff scored well in many of the Advanced Metrics on our charts for 2018, but his efficiency could have been better. Perhaps that will increase with Kupp back. Something to keep an eye on with the Rams this year will be their new Left Guard and Center on the Offensive Line. They will need to prevent Goff from getting immediate pressure, which is where he struggles. The OL will also be tasked with continuing to open wide lanes for Todd Gurley ($7900) to cruise through again this year. Gurley will be low owned in this one due to the combination of high price, unknown workload, his knee issue, and tough match-up. He makes for an interesting pivot as a flex play in lieu of a high-priced WR. The Panthers allowed more points to RBs that could catch than just the pure running types. This should help boost Gurley’s floor and could put Darrell Henderson ($4800) on some people’s radars. I’m not ready to role Henderson out in week 1 though.

Cam Newton ($6500) hurt his foot in the preseason, but sounds like he’ll be ready to go in this one. If there is any lingering effect from that injury, and/or, they decide they just want to try and get the ball out of his hands quick to keep Aaron Donald and company off of him, there could be a ton of quick-hitters to the Panthers trio of run-after-the-catch specialists, starting with Christian McCaffrey ($8800). McCaffrey would see a boost in goal line carries, too, if the Panthers try to protect Cam in this. The Rams gave up some points to pass-catching backs last year, especially early in the season and on the road. That could help McCaffrey pay off his high price this week. D.J. Moore ($5500) and Curtis Samuel ($4200) can also help slow down the rush by taking quick slants, screen passes, and jet-sweeps to get touches. The Rams have a pretty good coverage group, so it won’t be easy for them to put up huge numbers, unless they get creative. Like Kupp, Greg Olsen ($3200) is returning from a season-ending injury in 2018 and may fly under the radar in this one. The Rams corners are so good, teams elected to throw to the TE quite a bit against them last year. That could be the case again to start out 2019. 

Tennessee Titans (20.0/+5.5) at Cleveland Browns (25.5/-5.5) [45.5]

The Titans offense did not look too appealing this preseason. It’s going to be hard to make a strong case to play any of these guys, which will make none of them chalk. I don’t mind a pivot over to Delanie Walker ($3500) against a Browns defense that struggled a bit against TEs last year, and largely have the same personnel – yet different defensive scheme. A guy that will likely go under-owned for Tennessee will be Derrick Henry ($5900). I reiterate, the Browns have a different defensive scheme, but mostly the same personnel which could be a factor for Derrick Henry (also in a new scheme) to have some success. The Browns defense got gashed by RBs like MG3, Hunt, Conner, and Mixon last year, and a couple of more one-dimensional type guys like Lynch and Crowell had solid outings vs the Browns. If the Tennessee defense can keep the game script in Henry’s favor, he could be a nice pivot option in the mid-range of RB pricing.

The Browns offense will likely have a lot of high owned plays. The stack of Baker Mayfield ($6400) and Odell Beckham ($8100) may be one of the more frequently occurring stacks this week, and for good reason. Baker Mayfield’s Deep Ball Passing Stats were tremendous last year, which could lead to some explosive plays in this match-up. Tennessee has a group of just average corners. Adoree Jackson got better as the year went on last year, but may not be able to follow OBJ around all game, allowing him to face off against Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler some. Given that there will likely be some mixed WR/CB match-ups in this one puts Jarvis Landry ($5600) and Rashard Higgins ($3200) in play as well. Landry looks like a decent pivot option, while Higgins is more of a punt. Tennessee was pretty tough on TEs last year, only allowing Zach Ertz to really hurt them. Engram and Ebron had decent games against them to end the year, but this is not really looking like the game to try and run David Njoku ($3700) in too many line-ups, if any this week. The Browns DST ($3400) looks like a solid pivot off the likely higher owned Ravens and Seahawks, as they get to take on a struggling offense that will be without their start left tackle. If the Browns DST keeps things in check and Nick Chubb ($6400) has positive game-script throughout, then he’s going to put up plenty of points. He’s been mentioned quite a bit on Twitter, so I’d expect Chubb to be chalk this week.

Kansas City Chiefs (27.75/-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (24.25/+3.5) [52]

This year’s favorites for the AFC Super Bowl representative start the season out against what is usually a stout defensive group. The Jaguars allowed an average of 1.14 TDs per game at home in 2018, but allowed the Chiefs to score 2 TDs against them in Arrowhead. Both of those were rushing TDs, one from Hunt, and one from Mahomes. The much-anticipated match-up between Jalen Ramsey vs Tyreek Hill ($7600) swung to the favor of Ramsey and his guys. Hill was held to 4/61/0 receiving and 2/26 rushing. If you want a low owned play that will be in the upper range of costs, it’s Hill. I’m not sure I can stomach it, but I don’t play much MME, usually more of a 3-5 Max Entry contest seeker. That being said, I’m fading the Chiefs in this one, but I can see a case to use Hill in MME, and even Travis Kelce ($7100) and Pat Mahomes ($7200) as a way to force differentiation in a line-up. The backfield is unpredictable with the arrival of Lesean McCoy ($4600) to leach opportunities away from Damien Williams ($6300), so I’ll wait a week to see how they intend to split that load before getting involved there.

There are two plays on the Jaguars I really like this week. Dede Westbrook ($4800) and Leonard Fournette ($6100). Westbrook might be a popular play given his low price and the clarity we got from preseason that Nick Foles ($5300) only sees him when he drops back. Foles has a history of heavily targeting his slot WR, and Chiefs slot corner (Fuller) was just around league average in targets, receptions, and yards per coverage snap. Fournette faces off against a Chiefs defense that got thrashed by RBs last year. They have some personnel turn-over in the front 7, so things may change, but they didn’t add any significant upgrades as far as run-stuffers or coverage goes up there. Fournette will likely see a ton of touches this year and this week. The Jags look like they are ready to feature him more in the passing game, too, which is going to boost his floor. Fournette is a great pivot option to get away from higher owned guys like Chubb, Cook, and Kerryon.

Baltimore Ravens (22.25/-7) at Miami Dolphins (15.25/+7) [37.5]

The revamped Ravens go into Miami to take on a team that appears to be in year one tank mode. Not everything is as easy as it looks, but maybe this one is. Miami was terrible against the run last year, but drafted DT Christian Wilkins to help solve that. They also brought in former Patriots defensive units coach turned non-official defensive coordinator for NE last year to be the Dolphins head coach. Will it help? We’ll see. I am going to be placing bets on Mark Ingram ($5100) and Lamar Jackson ($6000) by rostering them against this defense while they transition to their new system with new players. Ingram and Jackson are going to be chalky, as will the Ravens DST ($3800), so we’ll be holding hands with a lot of other line-ups if we use them in GPPs and Cash Games. Make sure to find some differentiation plays when rostering this group.

It’s going to be really hard, if not crazy to roster any Dolphins this week. I would assume the Ravens take an early lead that snowballs, forcing the Dolphins to throw a lot. If that’s the case, then a guy like Kenyan Drake ($4700) out of the backfield makes some sense, as does Albert Wilson ($3900) or Jakeem Grant ($3000). I won’t touch DeVante Parker ($3900) in this one, as he seems to be the one drawing the tough match-up with up-and-coming CB star Marlon Humphrey. Grant makes a nice punt play if he gets the other outside match-up against Jimmy Smith.

Atlanta Falcons (22.0/+4) at Minnesota Vikings (26.0/-4) [48]

Atlanta’s explosive offense heads north to take on the Vikings and their gritty defensive group. Aside from the game against the Rams in LA, the Vikings were able to keep WRs in check last year. That would make Julio Jones ($8000) and Calvin Ridley ($5100) more like pivot options than must starts for me, since this is largely the same personnel and coaching for Minnesota again this year. The Vikes did allow a few good games to TEs last year, so perhaps Austin Hooper ($3200) is a sneaky punt option. Matt Ryan ($6100) is a middling option this week, and probably best left alone, though he’ll likely be very low owned in large-field tourneys. The best spot to attack the Vikings defense may be at RB, where they surrendered quite a few point totals greater than 15 last year, including 20+ DK Point efforts from Gurley, Kamara, Howard, and Ballage. Devonta Freeman ($5300) looks like he may have the best match-up of any Falcon and makes a solid pivot option for roster construction. 

The Vikings have one of the most concentrated offense cores, which makes it easy to roster their guys based on their (expected) higher than average volume. Adam Thielen ($6800) and Stefon Diggs ($6700) will square off with Trufant and Oliver, who were nothing special last year. Both of these WRs will be in my player pool, and are priced relatively cheap for this match-up. Kyle Rudolph ($3300) is an interesting pivot for me. Gary Kubiak has been involved with many seasons of good TE production, and people seem to have written Rudy-Olph (pun intended) this year after a disappointing 2018. Leverage that recency bias and get him into a few builds for differentiation. The Falcons are not great against any one position, so he could have a big game if they make him a focal point. Along that same logic – Atlanta not being great against any one aspect of the opponent – Dalvin Cook ($6000) is also one we need to consider. They are going to make him their bell-cow back this year, and from all accounts, he is healthy to begin the year. Cook dominates when he’s not on the injury report. In our advanced metrics Cook is #1 in Juke Rate and #9 in evaded tackles, and he was playing hurt a lot of the year in 2018. His long TD run against Arizona in the preseason will likely draw some ownership his way, but he’s in the elite group of RBs for this week. If Cook has a big game, it will come at the expense of Kirk Cousins ($5500), so I wouldn’t recommend playing Kirk unless you’re looking for really low ownership plays.

Buffalo Bills (18.75/+3) at New York Jets (21.75/-3) [40.5]

Last year there was a popular strategy to pick on the Jets defense with a slot WR. The Jets went out and signed Brian Poole to help shore that up, but Poole is just an average player and should not be avoided. That being said, the Bills slot-WR Cole Beasley ($3600) is a decent play, but I’m more interested in what the combo of Josh Allen’s ($5600) arm and John Brown’s ($4300) speed are going to do to the other corners the Jets have – of which, none are good. I’ve seen people mention Zay Jones ($3700) a few time on my Twitter timeline, and he is also a decent play at his price point. But if you’re trying to win a GPP, you want big plays, and Allen/Brown are capable of delivering those in this match-up. I have no interest in the muddled backfield the Bills are rolling out to start the season, nor am I interested in TEs from either side of this one. Both of these teams were very limiting to TE fantasy points last year, and neither team has their projected starting TE ready for this game.

The Bills defense had a hard time keeping opponent RB fantasy scoring down last year, and brought in DT Ed Oliver to help solve their woes. Oliver could definitely help, but the Bills LBs were still weak against RB passes, which is where Le’Veon Bell ($7100) could eat this week if he doesn’t do it by simply running the ball. Bell may come at lower ownership than he normally would have since people haven’t seen him in a year, and now he’s on a team with a weak offensive line and a play-caller that has been a detriment to RBs in his last post – and who has stated publicly he wouldn’t have signed Bell. Many have come to the conclusion that Sam Darnold ($5100) is ready to break-out in his second year. While that may be true, I don’t see enough upside for him this week to roster him in lower entry limit GPPs, but perhaps for MME. The WR1 in a Gase offense has averaged 8.9 targets per game, while his WR2 averages 6.7 targets per game. That would seem to make at least 2 WRs for the Jets relevant here. Jamison Crowder ($4100) has the best chance of avoiding Levi Wallace and Tre’Davious White on the outsides and based on the way Darnold targeted him this preseason he may be the Jets WR1 this year. Or, the WR1 will be Robby Anderson ($5200), but his match-ups are less appealing in this game. Anderson is the more likely to break a big play, while Crowder is more likely to see the higher volume. I don’t love either this week, but would probably go with Crowder if either. 

Washington Redskins (17.75/+10) at Philadelphia Eagles (27.75/-10) [45.5]

Case Keenum ($4900) will be throwing to a group of inexperienced WRs, other than Paul Richardson ($3900) – who has played in a total of 54 games over 5 years. Derrius Guice ($4400) was given the nod as the starting RB over Adrian Peterson ($3700), but it may not matter if the Redskins fall behind early and have to use a lot of 3rd-Down-Back Chris Thompson ($3500). It’s possible Jordan Reed ($3600) sees a ton of targets here, which makes him somewhat interesting as a pivot.

One of my favorite chalk defenses this week is the Eagles DST ($3600). No Trent Williams to protect Keenum, who has a mediocre-at-best supporting cast to help him out makes me think the Eagles just eat these guys up. If the Eagles defense rolls, then their running backs should benefit. Jordan Howard ($4200) was signed on to play that LeGarrette Blount role as a first down and clock grinder, which averaged 11 carries per game over the last 2 years so Howard could have some value here if he scores a couple of TDs. Or perhaps they find a way to get Miles Sanders ($3900) some extra touches. The way it probably will work out is that both to get touches and devalue each other. The most interesting individual match-up to me is Desean Jackson’s ($4500) prospects against Norman and Dunbar on the outside. Neither CB is capable of running with him. In our Advanced Metrics, Jackson was 1st in Yards Per Reception and 9th in Target Separation. If Jackson catches a couple of deep strikes, he could be in for a monster game against one of his former employers. Carson Wentz ($5700) could be in line for a bounce-back game with all the weapons he has at his disposal. He’ll probably be lower owned, making him a good pivot option.

Indianapolis Colts (19.0/+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (25.5/-6.5) [44.5]

Jacoby Brissett ($4400) is the new “Captain” of the Colts battalion and will be up against a pretty tough defense. Luckily for him, that defense will be without one of its stars, Derwin James. Brissett will probably be popular in cash games, and maybe a little in MME, but with pricing so loose to start the year, he likely won’t carry high ownership. That being said, I don’t think we need to roster him this week. The Chargers are weaker against the run, which makes Marlon Mack ($5600) more appealing as the low owned Colts play. Two other Colts worth looking at, per this tweet by Austin Gayle will be Jack Doyle ($3400) and TY Hilton ($6600). Jack Doyle is really cheap this week, and will likely get a good chunk of ownership, especially if people are reading those tweets about Brissett and Doyle in 2017, like this one from Scott Barrett. The sneakier play may be to pivot off TY and Doyle and over to Eric Ebron ($4100), who was not with the Colts in 2017, and should be on the field quite a bit in this one, as the Chargers were somewhat generous to TEs last year and Indy is expected to run a more 12 personnel this year.

It does not appear Melvin Gordon ($7500) will be with the team this week, leaving Austin Ekeler ($5500) and Justin Jackson ($4000) to fill in. Of the two, Ekeler is the better play, since he will see work in the passing game. Something I noted during my preseason prep and projections was the huge jump in fantasy points per game for Mike Williams ($5300) with and without MG3 on the field. With him he scored 9.7, without him it spiked to 16.5. Of course, this was also without Hunter Henry ($3900) on the field, who can be a major difference-maker as well. Keenan Allen ($7300) should see his normal load of targets, and it looked like they were giving him a few outside the numbers, deep opportunities in preseason this year. If he takes on any of those deep routes Tyrell Williams left behind, his value is going to spike. All in all, the amount of weapons available here makes it hard to choose. It might be better to just go with a naked Phillip Rivers ($5900) and capture as much of the offense as possible through him.

Cincinnati Bengals (17.5/+8.5) at Seattle Seahawks (26.0/-8.5) [43.5]

The Bengals are in a rough spot here. They have to travel to Seattle and play in one of the loudest stadiums, which has been known for producing offensive procedure penalties and unwanted time-outs. Paul Dehner Jr points out that “Seattle has won 10 consecutive home openers by a total of 238-74. No team has scored more than 16 points in that span” in his article in the Athletic previewing the Bengals season. That being said, we cannot realistically expect a team that has lost OL, WR, and defensive depth this year to put up a ton of points in this situation. Touchdowns and Milestone bonuses are likely off the table for all Bengals. Best bet will be at WR, where Seattle no longer has a Legion of Boom in the secondary. It’s mostly a bunch of “Just-A’Guys” right now. The front 7 is where they are going to be really strong this year. Someone like Tyler Boyd ($5800) or Tyler Eifert ($3100) may be able to produce some usable stats at nearly no ownership. Damion Willis ($3000) is someone to consider if you’re doing 150 line-ups. He’ll start in place of AJ Green, and no one will roster him. Joe Mixon ($6700) is about as contrarian as you’ll get on this slate, and will have almost no ownership.

Seattle has won 10 consecutive home openers by a total of 238-74. No team has scored more than 16 points in that span.

Russell Wilson ($6300) ranks in the top 4 in both Deep Ball Attempts and Deep Ball Completion Percentage in our data, and gets a beautiful match-up to test out Tyler Lockett ($6000) as his new #1 WR. The Bengals allowed the most passing yards per game last year and they are returning the starting 4 from that secondary, with the addition of BW Webb in the slot to cover for Dennard who was sent to the PUP list. Aside from perhaps Willie Jackson, Lockett should have his way with this group and will likely come in as heavy chalk this week. It sounds like DK. Metcalf ($4000) is not only going to be able to go in this one, but he will also start. He’ll give the Bengals another challenge, and could help keep them from keying on just Lockett in coverage. He can also help keep defenses off the line of scrimmage so Chris Carson ($5700) has room to work. The Bengals front 7 was bad against the run last year, and they lost Burfict to Oakland, but brought in Preston Brown. Carson is going to be chalk this week, too, but hard to fade. This match-up looks like a blowout where he could be grinding out carries to wind down the clock. If you’re looking for a punt from this one, Jaron Brown ($3100) is nearly minimum price and could be the red zone target for the Seahawks.

Detroit Lions (24.75/-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals (22.25/+2.5) [47]

If the Cardinals defense is going to look like they did in preseason, then it’s going to be a good idea to get some Lions exposure here. Matthew Stafford ($5400) is really cheap and will get the benefit of facing a secondary without Patrick Peterson or Robert Alford. Trumaine Brock will be the veteran corner, with a rookie and a second-year guy also out there in coverage. Kenny Golladay ($6300) has to be licking his chops looking at his possible match-ups. I’ll definitely have at least one Stafford/Golladay stack going, but so will plenty of other folks. You could pivot over to Marvin Jones ($4800) or Kerryon Johnson ($5800) and still likely get enough points to make a difference in your builds. Johnson looks like he’s going to break off chunk plays again this year, and the Cards front 7 isn’t going to prohibit him from doing so this week.

When pricing was first released for Week 1, Twitter was all over Kyler Murray’s $5600 price tag. Since then, a lot of folks have jumped off the Cards ship because they didn’t light up the preseason. Perhaps he’ll be less owned than we were thinking a month ago, but he’ll still carry some ownership at that price. He’s still in my player pool for this week, and I’d like to stack him with Larry Fitzgerald ($4900), as I’m thinking he’s going to be looking for someone who runs precise routes and has that wide catch radius so he can build some early confidence. This maybe a little narrative-based, but that’s where I’m going. I don’t mind Christian Kirk ($4700) or even Michael Crabtree ($3400) either, especially if you go Kyler plus 2 of his WRs. I’m also looking forward to seeing how Kingsbury utilizes David Johnson ($7700). Johnson should go back to the way he was playing in 2016, before missing a year after getting injured by the Lions in 2017, then having to navigate McCoy’s slow and predictable offense last year. He’s priced like a top WR, but not a top RB for this slate…but what if he’s both?

New York Giants (19.0/+7.5) at Dallas Cowboys (26.5/-7.5) [45.5]

Saquon Barkley ($9000) gained over 100 total yards in each game he played against Dallas last year, but the game in Dallas he was shut down on the ground, and needed 14 catches to get 80 of those yards. He is still an elite player and worthy of consideration here, just not sure he’s worth the $9000 you have to pay to take on that risk he doesn’t get 14 catches to boost his floor again. Evan Engram (4800) and Sterling Shepard ($5000) are decent low ownership options. the ball has to go somewhere if they can’t get Barkley going, and either guy is capable of hitting 100 yards receiving. Not sure if there will be many TDs on the Giants side though.

As of now, it’s unclear how many snaps or how much work the Cowboys plan to put on Ezekiel Elliott’s ($9200) plate this week. Even if he’s in a reduced role he still has a pristine match-up. You can probably leverage some uncertainty and avoidance by the field to get him a lower ownership than he should get here. Amari Cooper ($7000) has been sitting out practices for a month with a foot injury before returning on Sep 2nd. He says his foot is fine, and it probably is. Julio Jones has often played with foot issues and it hasn’t hurt his game. He’s another one we can probably get a low ownership as people see that foot injury and back off. A combo I’m interested in rostering here is Dak Prescott ($5900) and his favorite deep target Michael Gallup ($4300). These two started looking good down the stretch last year, and had a big play or two in preseason. The Giants could get caught watching Zeke as Gallup, well, gallops right past them for some deep strikes.

San Francisco 49ers (25.0/0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25.0/0) [50.5]

This game has the look of a shootout, with two teams that don’t have great defenses and two offensive masterminds at work (crediting Arians, not Leftwich here…yet). The 49ers are still looking for an identity at WR, and may have found that identity with Deebo Samuel ($4000). Samuel will be part of an emerging group, but could be the one who supplies the big plays in this game with his RB aggressiveness after the catch. If anyone rosters a 49er, it’ll likely be George Kittle ($6600) who is mayor of chalk city at TE this week due to loose pricing and a great match-up against LBs that couldn’t cover anyone last year. Tevin Coleman ($5000) and Matt Breida ($4000) are good options for a lot of the same reasons we like Kittle – the middle of the Bucs defense is soft. Coleman and Breida are both explosive players, but it’s going to be hard to figure out which one will see more volume. I suspect Coleman will see more targets and Breida will see more carries, but this could be a 50/50 split in overall snaps and touches. Dante Pettis ($5400) will be very low owned after his coach publicly stated he wasn’t sure what his role was during the preseason. His price is not something people are going to want to pay for a guy who wasn’t “puffed” this offseason, which makes him an intriguing pivot. He has been limited in practice with a groin injury so far this week, so keep an eye on that. Marquis Goodwin ($4000) will be more involved if Pettis can’t go. This is shaping up to be is a coming-out game for Jimmy Garoppolo ($5800). He needs to show he’s the franchise QB the Niners signed him to be. He’s got a ton of weapons, a play-caller that schemes guys wide open, and is facing a bad defense. I’m going to have at least one stack that has Jimmy, Kittle, and another Niner this week, probably Deebo. As a low priced DST option, the 49ers DST ($2200) may be one to look at. Considering Winston can throw INTs in bunches and will be facing a DL rotation stocked full of former 1st round picks, he could find himself making some poor choices in this one.

A lot of folks are excited about this Bucs offense with Bruce Arians designing the structure of the offense and Byron Leftwich out there calling the plays. This offseason, people were drafting Mike Evans ($7900) in the 2nd round, Chris Godwin ($6200) in the 4th, and OJ Howard ($5000) was also going 4th or 5th round. A lot of the fantasy players that drafted these guys high are going to roster them in DFS this week. The Bucs will be a chalky group, including Jameis Winston ($6600). If the Niners keep Richard Sherman tied to the LCB position again this year, it’s going to be easy for the Bucs to avoid him with their top guys. Ahkello Witherspoon and K’Wuan Williams are going to have their hands full. The only thing stopping Evans and Godwin from going bonkers will be the poor accuracy and decision making of Winston. Dare Ogunbowale ($3000) makes for a nice minimum priced punt in a game that many are expecting to be pass-heavy since it seems he has the Bucs pass-catching RB role.

Final Thoughts

With pricing being so loose, it’s going to allow people to build line-ups without the tighter constraints during roster construction and will help keep ownership a little more spread out. Depending on your contest selection, you may not need to get too wild this week, just add in one or two pivots or punts and you can still have a couple of chalky players. If you’re chasing the million, you’ll want to avoid the chalk a bit, but can still have a couple. Your differentiation pieces will have to be more obscure if you’re playing multiple chalk pieces. In 2017, bearsfan247 won the million dollars playing a relatively unknown Bears rookie (Tarik Cohen) at almost no ownership. Find that guy if you’re chasing large-field tournaments. Best of luck to you this week, and thanks for reading!