DraftKings NFL Picks Week 14
INITIAL THOUGHTS
With bye weeks now out of the way, we can get back to the full slates with more players in the pool to work with. Hopefully, this will reduce ownership percentages on the non-chalk plays so we can get an advantage on the chalk builds without bringing everyone else with us. This week I spent a little more time getting everything built-in #TheWorkbook before sitting down to go through salaries because I wanted to see what the QB and RB matrices were going to show before sitting down to write. These have been fun exercises and have been pretty spot-on as well. We got some surprise players popping in it this week which forces me to look into those matchups a little deeper. One thing that stands out to me on this slate is whether or not the guys in the top matchups will be on the field for the full games or will their teams pull away and require them to do less work. If we believe Seattle and Green Bay will need to play with their foot on the gas long enough for their passing games to accumulate the fantasy points we need, then we’re good. If it looks like they can play a more balanced game and spread the ball around, then they will disappoint. Seattle just got bushwhacked by the Giants, so they will come out motivated and probably get their points, as needed, for most of the game. Detroit may not be an easy push-over if Swift is back. There are other plays on this slate we can move to if the tea leaves start to tell us otherwise. Let’s have a look.
Below is the chart of which players I am considering as Chalk, Pivot plays, and salary saving Punts.
QUARTERBACKS
- BEST BETS: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill
- PIVOTS: Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins
- PUNTS: Mike Glennon, Andy Dalton
Russell Wilson was the player I thought would be the top QB of the slate when just reviewing the schedule and of course he pops in the QB Matrix, too. The Jets just fired Gregg Williams as the defensive coordinator and in steps Frank Bush, a guy with a 10-year job gap between defensive coordinator positions but has been Adam Gase’s Assistant Head Coach for the past few years (in NY and Miami). I’m not looking at this as a situation where the players feel they need to rally behind a fired coach and therefore, any fire lit under their asses will be minimal and won’t be enough to overcome the offense they’re about to face. That being said, perhaps they do put up enough of an initial fight with play-calling that Seattle needs to adjust to during the game. Where am I going with this? I’m thinking if the new defensive staff puts up enough early resistance to the Seattle offense and Darnold and company can get some scores on the board we might get to watch Russ cook for the full 4 quarters. If the defense fails early, their weakness has been against the pass so letting Russ cook for the early knock-out blow could also get him the points we need at his salary and it’s not likely he comes out too early anyway. Aaron Rodgers has a dream matchup against the Lions defense that is void of any pass rush and struggles in the secondary. He may be the more likely player to leave work early but this being the second game between these divisional opponents we could see Matthew Stafford keep this close enough to keep Rodgers on the field. If planning for this scenario, then we need to consider Stafford a pivot or leverage play and find a way to use him with one of his pass-catchers and bring back some pieces from the Packers’ side of the game. Ryan Tannehill tied with Wilson for the top spot on the QB matrix this week and provides excellent leverage against (or with) the Henry chalk. The Jaguars secondary is a bunch of random dudes signed off the street to help them “earn” the #1 pick in the draft. Tennessee needs this game if they want to win their division and for playoff positioning (if they make it). Derrick Henry should be able to easily plow through the Jags defense but pairing him with his QB to account for all TDs won’t be a popular combo. I’ll go with some Tannehill and pass catchers and fade Henry in some lines as well.
Justin Herbert is in a game that is projected to be close and both teams scoring at least 23 points. Atlanta’s defense has played better pass defense the past few weeks but if we put those games into context, they’ve faced Taysom Hill twice and a “Super Bowl hung-over” Raiders team that blew their wad the week before to beat the Chiefs. Atlanta has been a force against the run all year which should tilt this game in Herbert’s favor. His pass catchers are better than the Atlanta corners and could be set for a nice bounce back after their debacle against the Patriots last week. Both teams have embattled coaching staffs trying to save their jobs, so there is some extra incentive for these two losing teams to show up. One of the more interesting matchups this week (and one I might end up with the most stacks from) is between Tampa and Minnesota. Tampa is coming off their bye week, have lost 3 home games in a row, and there has been constant squawking about the offense not jelling. Perhaps the bye week fixes some of that? Who knows what tweaks they made, if any, but this is a game both teams need to win to stay alive in the playoff race and both teams have been putting up plenty of points in their past few games. Tom Brady pops in the QB matrix more than Kirk Cousins does but I like both here. Brady because they need to get their passing game right and should have worked on that over their break and Cousins because Tampa does not allow you to run on them, therefore we should see Cousins forced to the air. Cousins has had to throw 43 and 45 times the past two weeks, which is about where he could reach here. Brady averages a hair under 40 throws a game.
One of the surprises pops on the matrix was Mike Glennon tying Rodgers for the second-highest score. He was already one I was considering when looking at the schedule because I like to pick on the Titans secondary so this adds some confirmation bias for me to play him as my punt QB again this week. Glennon has 35 and 42 pass attempts in his starts and has shown a floor of 15 points, which is 3x his salary this week. The Titans defense shows a lot of green boxes in the matchup chart for Glennon and they don’t have any kind of pass rush to worry about. Andy Dalton heads back to Cincinnati for his narrative game and comes in with a quality group of pass-catchers. The metrics line up better for the Cowboys to run the ball to get the win but that has been the case for Cincy all year, yet teams still choose to throw on them. Dalton has the third-highest score on the QB matrix and will likely go overlooked, so he’s one I’ll keep in mind when I get to roster construction.
RUNNING BACKS
- BEST BETS: Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler
- PIVOTS: Chris Carson, Ezekiel Elliott, D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor
- PUNTS: Nyheim Hines, Melvin Gordon
The RB position would benefit this week from Christian McCaffrey playing but that’s looking more likely not to happen. So what will happen is everyone piles in with Derrick Henry lineups paired with a cheap RB so they can take Russ and Metcalf and they go from there. There will probably still be high ownership on Dalvin Cook, who I’m more likely to fade at this point in the process. Aaron Jones should get a boost in ownership based on his matchup and for not being outrageously priced for it. Austin Ekeler will also likely be chalky based on his passing game role against a team that forces you to pass and allows the most targets to RBs in the league. Of the chalk group, I like Henry, Jones, and Ekeler the best, but would really love to see CMC get a chance to play his daddy’s old team and terrorize them as his teammates Moore and Samuel may or may not make it back from the Covid list to play, thus forcing more volume toward CMC (if healthy).
Some of the pivots worth looking at this week include Chris Carson and Ezekiel Elliott. Pete Carroll said Carson is ready for a “full load” and that he’d “love to see him more”. The Jets defense has been solid at stopping opposing run games but Carson has a pass-catching element to his game which could be used to exploit the Jets defense that allows 8 targets per game to opposing RBs. As we mentioned when discussing Dalton, the Cowboys are set up to lean on their run game, if they choose to do so. The Cowboys gave Zeke his bell-cow role back last week against the Ravens allowing him to tote the rock 18 times and targeting him six. Dallas has been one of the least run-heavy teams in the league this year (by run percentage) but have also played at such a fast pace for much of the season (often in trailing situations) and still manage to fall in the middle of the pack in rush attempts per game. The Bengals allowed at least 142 rush yards to every NFC East team they’ve faced and could give it up again here. If D’Andre Swift gets in enough practice reps for Bevell to feel comfortable giving him a full load, then he could have a monster game against this Packers defense. The threat of Stafford throwing deep has resurfaced in Detroit which would help keep the defense out of the box and give Swift room to run and work pass routes against the worst group of coverage linebackers in the league (based on fantasy points allowed per coverage snap).
In the lower price range, guys like Nyheim Hines and Melvin Gordon have some appeal. Hines and the Colts backfield pops on the RB matrix forcing us to look at that matchup. Vegas is projecting this to be a close game with a total of over 50 points. The Raiders are soft across the board but is especially soft to RBs, per the Matchup Chart, where we can see a nice 4.5 fantasy point bump to RBs, 1.58 rushing TDs allowed, and 7.9 RB targets per game. Hines should receive the majority of those targets and will also be mixed into the running game. If the game is close or the Colts trail at all, then Hines will usually be on the field because he doesn’t tip off run or pass, as he does both. Hines has the highest ceiling in the Colts backfield but we could make a case that Jonathan Taylor is getting closer to a breakout game of his own. He’s had 90 yards on the ground in each of the last two games. It seems that he will soon cross the 100-yard mark and if there are any TDs to go with it, he’ll hit for a nice value play this week. Denver will be facing one of the latest teams to be ravaged by Covid when they play a Panthers defensive line that could be without starters Derrick Brown and Zach Kerr and may have Shaq Thompson missing as their backer. [Friday Update: Brown and Thompson were back at practice on Friday. Still need to see if they are active.] Melvin Gordon just ran for 8.7 yards per carry for a total of 131 yards last week against Kansas City and could be in line for an encore in this situation. Gordon is typically the pass-catching back out of Denver’s group which will add some value to his otherwise uninspiring workload.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- BEST BETS: Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson
- PIVOTS: Michael Thomas, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis, D.J. Chark
- PUNTS: Mike Williams, Darius Slayton, Laviska Shenault
- DEEPER PUNTS: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Breshad Perriman, Michael Gallup, Tre’Quan Smith
Let’s talk about the Jets receivers real quick. We already have been told Denzel Mims will not play Sunday, so scratch him from the pool. Jamison Crowder finally got back on track last week with a two-touchdown game but only saw 7 targets, which was more than he’d seen since Week 6. He could be in a great spot in this matchup if he plays (as of Thursday he was limited with a hammy). Seattle allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to WRs in the slot, although they have tightened up there in the past couple of weeks. Breshad Perriman is the Jets WR I’m most likely to play but if he’s the only one of the three starting WRs active he loses some appeal as he’ll be the focus of the defense. Also, if all three Jets starting WRs are out, it could hurt the value of the Seattle passing attack and boost Chris Carson. This will be a situation to monitor and with this being a 4:05 start, we may not have all the info until too late. We may not get that info until after the 1st set of games has already started and people lose their appetite for Seattle pass catchers and all pivot over to either Davante Adams or Keenan Allen. People with Russ in their lines will easily find their way to Aaron Rodgers, and so on. If we’ve constructed rosters to allow for some major reshuffling, then we can pivot off the Seattle passing game to Chris Carson and a cheap Jets receiver like Braxton Berrios or Jeff Smith and possible squeeze in Aaron Jones, too. Instead of following the field to Rodgers (from Russ), we can get Herbert, or get even farther away from the beaten path with Philip Rivers and one of his receivers (Hilton, Pittman, Hines). These scenarios should be planned out, where possible, during roster construction and create a plan for which players/games you’ll move to if moving off the Seattle game last minute. Mike Williams instead of Keenan Allen is another way to differentiate in this scenario and in regular builds. Williams is on my list as a stack play with Herbert anyway, so I may have to consciously try to avoid stacking Chargers and Seahawks in the same lines. Marquez Valdes-Scantling also fits into this puzzle and on his own as a punt play. MVS can be a moving part if needed, but I like him as a salary saver who could play the whole game whether or not the Packers have a commanding lead. MVS has a deep role in one of the best offenses in the league, which also warrants a look. Another deep threat in a game that shouldn’t provide much resistance is Darius Slayton. The Cardinals have been torched by the Rams and Bills passing games in recent weeks. The Giants offense is not on the same level as those teams but if Daniel Jones is back they will have one of the more aggressive QBs throwing the ball and Slayton has been his favorite target so far in his career. Pricing for this slate was out before Michael Gallup had his breakout game on Tuesday night, so he may attract a lot of attention but he’s still a quality play against the Bengals this week if you’re playing Andy Dalton. Amari Cooper isn’t a bad play either and will draw less ownership. Tre’Quan Smith has played two games with Taysom Hill this year. One was against the Broncos where he was not needed, the other was last week’s game against the Falcons where he caught his 4th TD of the season. Smith has 4 games with 6 or more targets this year and he should draw Avonte Maddox while Slay follows Thomas. The last time Smith played the Eagles he had 13 targets, 10 catches, 157 yards, and 1 TD, although most of that was against corners no longer on the Eagles roster.
TIGHT ENDS
- BEST BETS: Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski
- PIVOTS: T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram
- PUNTS: Dalton Schultz, Jordan Reed, Jacob Hollister, Jordan Akins
Travis Kelce is an animal. He’s gone for 100 yards in 4 out of his last 5 games. He and Mahomes have a rare connection that is amazing to watch. Where possible, Kelce is the first pick of TEs I’m going to try to fit in but he won’t be able to fit into every lineup. In the builds Kelce is priced out of I’ll look to Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has been Brady’s security blanket this year in a receiving corps that has not been a cohesive group from the gate. Since week 3, Gronk has seen at least 6 targets in 8 out of 10 games and only Dan Arnold and Mike Gesicki have a higher aDOT among TEs during that span. T.J. Hockenson is another solid play but is $200 more than Gronk. Hock is being relied upon to shoulder a significant portion of the offense lately while they wait for Golladay to come back. If D’Andre Swift is back this week, his targets could take a slight hit but he’s still worth considering. Evan Engram has seen 7 targets per game this year and the Giants have been insistent on finding ways to get him the ball (he has 3 games with a carry and was the receiver on a fake FG TD pass that was called back due to an illegal shift in Week 5). Engram is the cheapest of the volume guys this week and Arizona is allowing 7.7 targets to TEs this year. The Rams duo of TEs went for 22.8 points against the Cardinals last week, highlighting their struggles against the position this year (and last).
When salary gets tight we have some punt options in the lower ranges that could turn out well for us or be complete duds (such is TE this year if you’re not paying up). Dalton Schultz is not the most exciting play based on recent production but he does have a decent, yet diminishing target volume (his targets over the past 5 games are exactly inverse to Amari Cooper’s – each has scaled up or down by one target per game between 4 and 9 targets). The good news for Schultz is he’s playing Cincinnati, who lead the league with 8.5 targets allowed to TEs and are allowing 14.9 points to the position. Jordan Reed is priced the same as Schultz and has been a bit more enigmatic this year. Like Schultz, Reed is TD dependent but also faces a defense that struggles mightily with the position. Jacob Hollister faces the defense that has allowed the most points to TEs this year but has been unproductive to date as he competes for targets with Will Dissly. Jordan Akins had a solid start to the year and fizzled out with an injury for a little while there in the middle. He posted a nice game against a team that has been tough on TEs (New England) and then didn’t do much last week against another team that limits the position (Indianapolis). With the lack of pass-catching options still standing in Houston, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Akins get going again soon and Chicago has been more welcoming to TEs than some of the teams he’s seen recently.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
- BEST BETS: Saints, Seahawks
- PIVOTS: Buccaneers, Bears
- PUNTS: Denver
The worst OL/DL matchup this week is the Saints DL over the Eagles OL. Add in they are starting a rookie QB and expectations for the Eagles offense need to be tempered. The Saints defense should be able to get to Hurts and force some bad decisions/turnovers. The Seahawks are coming off a bad loss and have Jamal Adams leading the way for his revenge game against the Jets offense that will be down at least one starting WR (probably two, possibly three). The Jets are sitting ducks in this matchup. I know I like both offenses in the MIN/TB game but I also see a path for the Buccaneers defense to come off their bye week and get after Cousins while mostly shutting down Dalvin Cook. In this scenario, we could see multiple interceptions/fumbles and plenty of sacks. The Texans are running out of skill players and may be down David Johnson this week as well. The Bears defense seems to be getting back their health and should have no problem shutting a short-handed Deshaun Watson down. The Panthers will miss CMC this week and could be down D.J. Moore, too (Samuel isn’t s sure bet yet either). The Broncos have been playing solid defense this year and could thrive as a punt play if Carolina doesn’t have all their skill players.
FINAL THOUGHTS
As I start playing with more builds I can see that we’re really going to need to get the value plays right or build lines that are made up mostly of mid-range salary players. The players talked about above are some of my favorites from the player I started working on this week and that pool will expand as I continue to build and find new salary constraints to overcome. You can follow along here and ask me questions on Twitter @majesstik1if you’d like. Best of luck this week and thanks for reading!
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