Exploring FantasyData’s Advanced WR Metrics
The fantasy football playoffs have arrived and if you’re inquiring on how metrics can help you win this week, that means you survived the wild 2020 regular season. Congratulations on your success! Hopefully, this piece has helped in some small way.
Last week, we looked at how some of FantasyData’s advanced WR Metrics favored Keke Coutee and Gabriel Davis. Both players came through in Week 13 with solid outings. Although the stakes are much higher in Week 14, the goal is one and the same: Mining that data to find favorable situations for this week’s wideouts.
Now is not the time to change your routine. And so for one final time this season, here are some of the interesting tidbits I pulled from the first 13 weeks of stats and how we can use that data to win in a do-or-die Week 14.
Marvin Jones (Detroit Lions) – No quarterback has thrown more deep-ball attempts over the past two weeks than Matthew Stafford and the Lions were able to put up 34 points and get an upset road win in Darrell Bevell’s first game as the interim head coach. Marvin Jones was the main benefactor of those downfield attempts last week, putting up a season-high 116 receiving yards on 12 targets. Jones has recorded 12 targets in back-to-back games and should be a good bet for a heavy workload again in Week 14 with Kenny Golladay looking doubtful. Jones is 8th in routes run (455), and 7th in average cushion (4.42). Week 14’s Detroit/Green Bay tilt has the highest over/under for the week, so expect another busy day for Jones and Stafford.
Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco 49ers) – Entering the fantasy postseason, Brandon Aiyuk is one of the hottest wideouts in all of football. Dating back to Week 8, Aiyuk is third among all wideouts in PPR points per game. The 49ers have made a huge emphasis on featuring their first-round wideout in the red-zone and Aiyuk has hit pay-dirt in four of the past five games. Despite missing a pair of games, Aiyuk is tied for 9th with 13 red-zone targets. And not all of those targets are short throws. Aiyuk has racked up 69.7 air yards per game and he’s also producing 3.3 yards after catch per target, which ranks 33rd.
T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) – After a pair of solid outings, the real question for patient Hilton managers is can you trust him now that he playoffs are here? The top metric that favors Hilton as a viable WR2 is target accuracy, which is on QB Philip Rivers, not Hilton. While Hilton’s average of 6 targets per game is fine, his 17.4% target share is 57th and Rivers only has a middling 84.0 QB rating when targeting Hilton, which ranks 84th. While those back-to-back efforts are appreciated, Hilton likely is no longer a viable weekly WR2, as we’ve seen through the first 11 weeks. The truth generally tends to be in the middle, so view Hilton as more of a WR4 who can be considered an upside WR3 in an appealing matchup against the Raiders’ shoddy secondary.
Tim Patrick (Denver Broncos) – Disregarding that Week 12 Denver debacle, Tim Patrick has developed into an excellent fantasy option who is succeeding in spite of subpar quarterback play. Passes intended for Patrick rank 70th in target quality rating (5.2) and 104th with a 6.33 overall target accuracy score. Only 69.4% of the passes thrown Patrick’s way have even been catchable, which ranks 90th. However, Patrick has preserved, with double-digit fantasy points in 7-of-9 games, including three 100-yard outings. He also ranks 11th in deep-ball targets and is winning in contested-catch situations (14th). In the next three weeks, the Broncos play Carolina, Buffalo, and the Chargers, but Patrick also offers intriguing value as a potential offseason dynasty trade target.
Sammy Watkins (Kansas City Chiefs) – Since returning from a five-week absence, Watkins has played 73.4% of Kansas City’s snaps, which has come at expense of Mecole Hardman’s playing time. In his two games since returning, Watkins has gotten 13 targets but hasn’t done a lot with the opportunities. What is interesting is that Watkins is doing an excellent job getting open but is being used on shorter routes. Watkins’s 2.31 yards of separation rank 5th among all wideouts, but he ranks just 87th with 7.0 yards per target. Don’t necessarily count on those numbers changing in the next two games versus Miami and New Orleans but a Week 16 home game against Atlanta’s haggard secondary looks awfully appealing in championship week.
Collin Johnson (Jacksonville Jaguars) – A fifth-round rookie out of Texas, Collin Johnson appears to have passed Chris Conley on the depth chart. Despite being healthy last week, Conley played just 8 snaps for the Jaguars while Johnson has thrived with QB Mike Glennon under center. In Glennon’s two starts, Johnson has hauled in 8-of-14 targets for 162 yards and a score while playing 67% of Jacksonville’s snaps. Jacksonville quarterbacks have amassed a 93.3 QB Rating when targeting Johnson, who also ranks 22nd in the league with a 15.2 yards per catch average. With a scintillating Week 14 matchup against a porous Titans’ secondary, Johnson is suddenly quite fantasy-relevant in deeper leagues.
Laviska Shenault (Jacksonville Jaguars) – While we’re talking about the Jags’ receiving corps, Johnson suddenly looks more relevant than fellow rookie Laviska Shenault. Don’t read too much into Shenault’s touchdown last week. It came via a fluke deflection off of a defender’s shoulder pads. Shenault dipped down to a 35% snap share in that game and continues to struggle to make plays downfield. Only three of Shenault’s’ 46 targets were beyond 20 yards, and he’s outside of the league’s top-100 wide receivers in target rate, air yards, and average target distance.
Travis Fulgham (Philadelphia Eagles) – Fulgham was one of the most heralded players in these metrics earlier this season during his unprecedented breakout but time has not been kind to the sophomore pass-catcher. In addition to losing snaps to John Hightower and Alshon Jeffery over the past two weeks, Fulgham hasn’t topped 16 receiving yards in any game since Week 8. With four total targets in the Eagles’ past two losses, volume is almost non-existent. This is especially concerning considering Philadelphia is 5th in team passing plays per game and just made a quarterback switch from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts. Fulgham didn’t catch either of his targets from Hurts against Green Bay last week and is unlikely to make any kind of notable impact against a solid New Orleans secondary in Week 14.
Brandon Zylstra (Carolina Panthers) – The Panthers are in the midst of an outbreak, with both D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel being placed on the COVID list. This doesn’t preclude either player from suiting up against Denver, but if one or both players are ruled out, third-year undrafted veteran Brandon Zylstra is the most likely Panther to see an increase in snaps. Zylstra has averaged 12 snaps in each of Carolina’s past three games and he’s caught both of his targets for 32 yards. Half of his snaps this season have come out of the slot, so he’s the best bet to replace Samuel if the latter is grounded. When D.J. Moore sat out Week 17 of the 2019 season, Zylstra caught 6-of-8 targets for a team-high 96 yards.
