DraftKings NFL Picks Week 9: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

>>>By the way, don’t forget to check out the awesome tools that FantasyData added for this year, including Fantasy Projections, a DFS NFL Optimizer, and a DFS NFL Stacking Tool

QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Hebert
• PIVOTS: Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins
• PUNTS: Drew Lock, Jake Luton

Last week I fell into the trap of thinking the Chiefs would not need to do much to beat the Jets and Patrick Mahomes would get to leave work early. Oops. Mahomes smashed and I had no exposure. Not making that mistake again. Mahomes is perma-pool going forward, even if I don’t bother writing him up. We all know what he’s capable of. In Justin Herbert’s 6 career starts, he has yet to score less than 19.7 DraftKings points. He has achieved the 3 point passing yards bonus in half of his games and is showing to be a capable runner. As of writing, Vegas has this game at 51.5 implied points and is a pick ’em. Besides the Seattle/Buffalo game, this is the other legitimate shootout we’ll want some exposure to. The Chargers are 6th in the league in passing yards per game versus the Raiders 8th most friendly pass defense. The Raiders have no pass rush which will allow Herbert to pick them apart. 

Russell Wilson may be the more frequently rostered QB in the SEA/BUF game, however, I like the idea of pivoting from Russ to Josh Allen here. Allen saves $600 against rostering Wilson, Allen will run more, and he has 4 rushing TDs compared to 0 for Russ. If this game lives up to the shootout potential, then Allen will be the reason. If Allen fails, then it’s likely Seattle will rely on their run game to beat the Bills, as that has been the Bills weakness on defense this year. The Texans are coming off their bye week giving the new coaching staff some extra time to implement any playbook wrinkles they weren’t able to put in on the fly after BOB was fired. It would make sense if they self-scouted enough to know Deshaun Watson is their best player and they need to put him in situations to allow him to make plays. Watson had his first career big game against Jacksonville back in Week 5 (Jags have previously kept his numbers tame) and he’s set up for another big game here. Only Atlanta and Seattle have allowed more points per game to the QB position this year and the Jags have no teeth in the pass rush which should allow Watson time to find Fuller and Cook for deep strikes. Watson ranks 3rd in Fantasy Data Advanced Metrics for Deep Passing Completion Percentage but has only had time to throw deep 3.1 times per game. Kirk Cousins is my contrarian/game theory pivot for this week with the way I think ownership will gravitate toward Dalvin in this spot. Cousins is the 12th highest by salary but I can see him outscoring at least 4 of the QBs above him. Zimmer said that the wind played a role in the play-calling last week in Green Bay, forcing them to rely heavily on the ground game. This week, they should be able to use the threat of Cook to hit some play-action deep strikes (Detroit is missing their top pass rusher this week, buying time for this). Cousins ranks 8th this year in deep attempts per game and 5th in deep yards per game (per PFF data). Everyone is down on Kirk and high on Dalvin right now which will keep Cousins’ ownership very low. Sell when others are greedy and buy when others are fearful in this scenario.

When reviewing the stat lines allowed to QBs by the Atlanta defense we have to wonder if we’re at a pivot or if last week was an outlier. Before holding Teddy and Walker to 179 yards and 1 TD on 27 attempts the Falcons have not held anyone to less than 33 attempts or 313 yards and have allowed an average of 2.71 passing TDs from weeks 1 through week 7. Every game before last week would have earned the opposing QB the 3 point bonus on DraftKings and three times they would have hit 4 passing TDs – and while Dak only threw 1 TD he ran in 3 more. The Falcons have faced 3 elite QBs in that group but let’s look at what Drew Lock is doing, too. Lock has been in two straight games where the Broncos needed him to throw, and he’s thrown 40+ times in those games. The Falcons have a good enough run defense and their offense is high-powered enough that Drew is going to have to throw again here. He had 3 TD passes last week, so there’s some established ceiling there and a defense with priors. At $5200 we could be getting a 300-yard game and 3 TDs or a 250-yard game and 1 or 2 TDs. The ceiling scenario is enticing enough to chase in a few builds for me. Here goes Jacksonville again, unleashing a 6th round rookie QB on the league. I’m not able to follow college ball as well as I’d like (and used to be able to) so I don’t have much of an opinion on Jake Luton, other than he’s a starting QB playing a bad Texans defense. Both teams are coming off their bye weeks so I would expect the Texans to possibly play better on defense, especially against a rookie. I don’t know if I’ll get to Luton as I think I’ll find the $300 to get to Lock instead but he’s an interesting idea to consider.

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, James Conner
• PIVOTS: James Robinson, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery
• PUNTS: Seattle RB1, Nyheim Hines, Justin Jackson, Miami RB1

We’ll have to see if Christian McCaffrey is active for this game, and if so, he’s got to be one of the favorites for a 30 point game this week. The Matchup Chart does not indicate the Chiefs are surrendering a bunch of points to RBs but they also have not played many teams with a good RB (HOU, NE, BUF, and NYJ all have mediocre running backs). The Chiefs have some underlying numbers that point to a potential breakout for CMC in his return, starting with the 5th-lowest Run DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and a positive OL vs DL matchup based on additional FO data. CMC’s priced way up, making him a “think-twice” play as well as a lineup piece that forces a unique build. Dalvin Cook only made it into 25% of my rosters last week but it made a huge difference. Now we’re going to get FOMO rostership with Cook this week in a great matchup for him. He’s not a full fade as we’re going to want to get exposure, but it might be good to keep it in the 20-25% range since the field should be well over that. Or, go over whatever the projections show for the field. Just keep in mind that the wind played a role in Cook’s massive workload last week and he’ll probably see a fewer touches here with Cousins able to run more play-action passes. The current trend in the NFL is to pound the rock when you play the Cowboys. Over their last three games, the Cowboys opponents have run on them at a 54% rate and are averaging 196 rushing yards per game. Dallas has allowed 3 games of over 200 rushing yards, including a game where they allowed more than 300 yards rushing. This sets up well for James Conner to have a big game, as long as Snell doesn’t vulture all his TD chances. Conner has 8 carries inside the  for 4 TDs, while Snell has 5 carries for 2 touchdowns. 

James Robinson is priced up for a matchup against the Texans 2nd-worst run defense (Dallas is the worst), which is putting him all the way up at RB4 this week (RB3 if CMC doesn’t play). No one is going to play Robinson over Cook, Henry, or Conner, who are sandwiching him on the salary board. Robinson is getting bell-cow usage and even if Houston has corrected some running game issues, he could still see that heavy usage (think RB with a rookie in his first game type usage) pay off for him at low ownership if those other guys around him miss. Robinson is the ultimate contrarian/game theory piece this week. Derrick Henry is usually a “best bet” pick but this week, against the Bears defense, he slides in as a pivot. He is especially pivot-worthy with projected ownership likely to be lower than CMC, Cook, and Conner, all three of whom catch passes. The Bears run defense has been solid but they have allowed their opponents to rush for over 100 yards in every game but one (NYG) while holding opponent passing games in check. David Montgomery was able to find 4.2 yards per carry against a tough New Orleans run defense last week. His bell-cow usage and the sudden return to being (at least) mediocre, along with the sub-$6k pricing have him on my radar. He’s running on a 3 game TD drought and only has 2 TDs for the year, so I’m not going to go heavy if I go here at all, but Tennessee’s 3.43 TDs allowed (passing + rushing) inspire some hope he gets at least one score.

We’re going to want to keep an eye on the Seattle backfield for a potential value play this week. Hyde has already been ruled out and Carson is questionable. That will leave Travis Homer ($4k) and DeeJay Dallas ($5k) as their top options against a soft Bills run defense. The Bills have allowed an average of 134.5 yards per game on the ground (7th-most) and opponents have run for at least 100 in 4 straight games against them, including Kansas City chugging for 245 a few weeks back. If Seattle wants to control this game on the ground, they will have every opportunity to do so. We just need to keep our eye on the beat reports coming into the game for any clues on Homer’s health and/or workload indicators. The Colts are thin at WR leaving them to funnel the offense through the TEs and Nyheim Hines in the passing game. At $4400 Hines makes for a solid punt option but he’ll be hard-pressed to match last week’s big game. Recency bias may put his ownership up higher than we’d want as a punt so it might be better to look elsewhere if ownership numbers look too high. I’m keeping my mind open to Justin Jackson this week after seeing 2 games of 21+ opportunities (carries + targets) over the past three weeks. The Jacksonville game gives me pause, making me wonder if it’s a hot hand approach in the Chargers backfield and he’ll need to get going early to stay on the field. His salary at $4900 will likely draw me to him in a build or few though. With Gaskin heading to IR, it opens up an opportunity for either Jordan Howard or Matt Breida to show why they were brought to Miami this offseason. Breida is the more versatile and faster player but he is questionable with a hamstring injury he picked up sometime during this past week. That would leave Jordan Howard, Patrick Laird, and Salvon Ahmed to carry the mail. It’s a fluid situation that bears monitoring until we get some better tea leaves to read, but for now, I’m considering Howard the likeliest to handle the most touches. If Breida does play, there is an article out there that states the Dolphins want to get him more involved and I would play him of Howard. Both are minimum price so it won’t change your salary structure if punting with one of these guys and making a late swap. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins
• PIVOTS: Panthers WRs, Cole Beasley, Texans WRs, Vikings WRs, Mike Williams, CeeDee Lamb
• PUNTS: Broncos WRs, Keelan Cole, Marvin Hall, Darnell Mooney, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Gallup, Preston Williams

The Bills should be busy in the air against a Seattle secondary that has struggled mightily this year. Stefon Diggs has been quiet his past few outings but finds himself in an eruption spot here. It looks like Seattle’s best corner (Griffin) may need another week opening the door for Diggs to slaughter the rest of the Seattle corners. As a pivot from Diggs in some builds (or in addition to) Cole Beasley will have a great matchup in the slot against D.J. Reed who gave up 6 catches for 105 to 49er receivers last week. Julio Jones may be on his own this week if Ridley can’t go. Either way, he’s in a good spot against a middling Denver defense. Since getting healthy 3 weeks ago, Julio is averaging 26 DK points per game. His low is 17.7, where he just missed the 100-yard bonus by 3 yards. His high was at Minnesota where he caught his only 2 TDs of the year and scored 36.7 DK points. I’m looking for some TD regression here and another 30 point game. If Calvin Ridley plays, then he’ll be on my radar this week, too. Just need to figure out how healthy he’ll be before going heavy. Allen Robinson has the full trust of his QB to the point Foles will throw to him deep downfield in triple coverage. This is not optimal but it highlights why Robinson is 6th in Fantasy Data’s Air Yards per game metric. Robinson will likely see a lot of Malcolm Butler, who shut down A.J. Green last week in a windy game. The weather for this one looks to be good and Foles won’t care who is covering him. Robinson should be back to 10+ targets and has a 4 game TD streak going. If Kenyan Drake misses this week it would make sense for Arizona to come out with a pass-heavy game plan to take advantage of the few holes the Dolphins defense is showing. DeAndre Hopkins is a superior player to just about anyone he lines up across from and this will continue to be the case against Byron Jones. 

As long as McCaffery is keeping the Panthers close I wouldn’t expect to see the WRs get too involved. However, if we think the Chiefs can control the game and keep a two-score lead, then we’ll want to consider Robby Anderson and DJ Moore in our player pool. The Chiefs have allowed some big games to good WRs this year and these guys are both good. Both guys are seeing similar roles as well, so it’s a pick one or split exposure situation. The Panther WRs also offer leverage if CMC looks like he’s going to be chalk. The Texans should be able to move the ball through the air against the Jaguars and we know the upside that Will Fuller brings to the table when he’s healthy and Watson is targeting him. The Jaguars have been pretty good at limiting deep strikes though, so we should also consider Brandin Cooks in any Watson builds. Cooks is mirroring (if not he’s the reciprocal to) Fuller in the way the Texans are using these guys. However, it’s worth noting that Fuller has the higher aDOT (13.4) than Cooks (9.6) and over 10% more of the team’s air yards as an additional point of reference in the decision-making process between the two. According to PFF grades, the Vikings have two top-5 WRs this year. The Lions starting corners are inexperienced guys facing two of the better route runners in the league here. With Dalvin being the primary focus for defenses, we could see several play-action deep shots to Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson (Cousins ranks 8th in deep passes per game). I’m prioritizing Thielen this week but will be happy to pivot to Jefferson where I need the extra $600 to make the rest of the build work. Mike Williams looks like he’s starting to reach his potential with Herbert at QB. in 2 out of his last 3 games he’s seen 8 targets and missed the 100 yard DK bonus by a yard in one of those. His 3 TDs have come in those games as well. The Raiders have allowed the 8th most explosive pass plays (per Sharp Stats) which is where Williams excels. I considered adding Keenan here but I don’t love his placement in the salary scale (higher upside players in the same range) and he has not had an explosive game against the Raiders since 2017, well before Guenther took over the defense. He’s still on my radar but I will continue to digest that idea. The Steelers have been vulnerable on some deep shots this year as well as a few games where WRs lined up in the slot have scored 20+ against them. The Ravens scored 35.4 fantasy points through the slot last week. And, we can look at weeks 3 and 5 where the Texans and Eagles racked up 27 and 22 points inside. This would put CeeDee Lamb (and maybe Cooper, too) in line for a chance at a good score in a matchup against one of, if not the best defenses in the league where the field will fade. The (new) QB and pass protection may force quicker throws to the slot areas to keep the ball moving.

Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy give us some nice, cheaper WR plays to combo with Drew Lock in a game that should see the Broncos passing game hit again in this spot. The matchup chart is showing we want an outside WR against the Falcons but if Patrick plays it could mean Jeudy goes back to the slot in 3 WRs sets. That’s not enough of a concern for me to fade him though. Between these two receivers and Fant, there are a few eggs to crack to make a Denver omelet, I mean passing stack. Tim Patrick has an aDOT of 16 yards (5th among WRs with at least 20 targets) which is interesting against Atlanta’s defense. Jeudy isn’t that far behind at 13.8 yards of aDOT (13th). For the same reasons I liked Keelan Cole two weeks ago (although I didn’t play him, thankfully, as he flopped) are the same reasons to like him here. Cole was the Jaguars leader in Targets, Receptions, Yards, TDs, and Big Plays. He has since been passed in Targets (by Chark) and Receptions (by Shenault) by 1 in each category. If we were to experiment with a Luton/Cole build that costs less than 18% of the available cap on DraftKings it is conceivable the pieces you could add to that build would make up for a combined 25 point game from the two of them. Last week when Golladay went down, both of the Marvin’s picked up the slack with Marvin Jones benefiting from the 2 TD catches. However, it was Marvin Hall that saw the target boost and he capitalized on his 7 targets by racking up 113 yards. Perhaps Hall finds some TD luck against a Vikings defense that has allowed 2.43 TD catches per game, second only to Atlanta for the main slate. Darnell Mooney is still being underpriced on DraftKings for his role. If we’re looking to save some salary and are fine with a $3900 player who sees 5+ targets per game with a floor/ceiling of 3.5-17.9, then he’s a solid punt play. The Titans are allowing the 3rd-most points to opposing WRs so there is an opportunity for Mooney to hit closer or above his established ceiling. Larry Fitzgerald will line up across from Nik Needham this week. Needham is Miami’s most picked on corner and lines up in the slot where Larry is. Fitz has seen targets of 7 and 8 in 2 out of his last 3 games, with 4 in between those. The matchup is good but the ceiling may be limited to 12-15 points. It’s likely the Steelers are going to crush the Cowboys this weekend and Dallas will have to throw to stay alive. The Steelers have been vulnerable to the deep (offense’s) left side of the field which is the side most often manned by Michael Gallup. Gallup is the Cowboys deep man and holds a 13.6 aDOT (15th among WRs with at least 20 targets). If the OL can protect the QB long enough for Gallup to break free, then it possible he can hit on a couple of big plays. With the injuries/Covid taking out 2 of the Cardinals top 3 corners, I would expect Patrick Peterson to travel with Parker leaving Preston Williams to go at the back-ups. If we’re playing any Cardinals stacks, we can run those back with either Preston or Gesicki.

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: Noah Fant
• PIVOTS: T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith, Mike Gesicki
• PUNTS: Jordan Akins

Noah Fant ranks 5th among TEs in WOPR (a weighted opportunity metric that accounts for target share and team air yards) and hasn’t seen less than 5 targets in a game this season. Atlanta provides the biggest bump in fantasy scoring to TEs on the slate with a 6.2 points per game boost. If we’re not clear on the WRs for Denver when trying to build a stack, Fant is the cheapest of the three and likeliest to have a major role in that game. 

The matchup chart data for the Minnesota defense points allowed to TEs does not insist we start T.J. Hockenson, but with the lack of weapons in the Lions passing game and the spread/line on this game, it would seem that Detroit will be playing catch up to meet their implied 24 point total. As we noted when discussing Marvin Hall, the Vikings are generous in allowing passing TDs which may come from Hock in this game. The Giants seem to be doing more to get Evan Engram involved over the past two games. Engram has been targeted 19 times the past two games and has another 3 carries for 22 total opportunities. DraftKings has his salary at $4300 this week (2nd-lowest of the season) making him easy to get to. The discount on Jonnu Smith is here for another week, at least. After being disappointing chalk last week he has a chance to redeem himself against a team that funnels targets into the TE position. The downside to Smith will be the mere 1.0 passing TDs allowed by the Bears defense, so we’ll need to count on him getting there through catches and yards if he’s not on the receiving end of that lonely TD. The Dolphins will probably have to ask Tua to throw more than 22 times to win this game. Mike Gesicki only saw 2 of the 22 Tua passes last week so in order for him to get going again, he’s going to need that increase in pass calls. Gesicki is priced right in the same spot as Engram and Smith and has just as good of a ceiling as these guys but also the lowest floor if the play-calling doesn’t open up. If the Dolphins get him flexing out wide and in the slot, then he can take advantage of the mismatches. 

Jordan Akins was on my list as a possible pivot from Randall Cobb a few games back but he didn’t play. Akins lines up in the slot on 66% of his snaps and creates mismatches with his size against CBs and speed against LBs. Cobb was a DNP as of Wednesday and would be replaced at WR by Kenny Stills, but the opportunities will be there for Akins to be a sneaky punt at TE this week if we’re looking for some extra salary and willing to put our risk into the TE position.  

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Ravens, Washington, Steelers
• PIVOTS: Colts, Texans, Cardinals
• PUNTS: Vikings (if no Stafford), Giants

The rate at which the Ravens DST gets to the QB and forces turnovers put them in an elite class this year. Uncle Phil moves as fast as furniture making him an easy target for these guys. He’s also prone to late-game mistakes if playing from behind. The Washington DST had a week to prepare for Daniel Jones and his shaky offensive line and they have the 2nd-best Combined Adjusted Sack Rate when using Football Outsiders metrics. As sack and turnover-prone as Daniel Jones is, this should be an excellent matchup for the WFT. The Steelers DST has the best matchup on paper this week. They take on a Cowboys team with a depleted OL and QB position, along with a gimpy Zeke. There should be plenty of sacks and forced turnovers for them in this one. 

The Colts DST will have a challenge with Lamar running around but they could counter that with Leonard as a spy and let their coverage shell prevent him from throwing anything deep. This could end up as one of the lower scoring games of the slate between these two defenses, especially with the Ravens coming off Steelers week. The Texans DST has the best DL vs OL matchup on the slate. The Jags OL is ranked 32nd in pass protection by Football Outsiders and has its worst rating by Adjusted Sack Rate at 9.0%. They get to take on a rookie 6th round QB in his first career start. This could be a nice pivot point for the Texans defense to get back on track. The Cardinals DST is likely going to blitz the rookie QB often in this game and could rack up some sacks and possibly force some turnovers. They may also be able to keep the Dolphins score low.

The Vikings DST would be an option if Matthew Stafford is out, otherwise, the best punt I can find in the $2500 or less range is actually $2700, and it’s the Giants DST. The Giants come in with the 4th-highest Combined Adjusted Sack Rate this week against a Washington OL that has allowed the most sacks on the slate (26). The Giants defense was showing some signs of improvement last week. Maybe they keep that going in this divisional rivalry game.

FINAL THOUGHTS

As I went through the games this week, the more it seemed like some of the data may be irrelevant this far into the season. Sure, we have some established trends, but the teams that are putting in bad trends are working hard to fix them. We’re likely to see reversals and regression in some of the statistical categories we want to use as support for why we’re playing a guy. At this point in the season, I feel we need to take the time to think through each game and just figure out how we think it will play out. I tend to ignore the Vegas lines while doing this and just look at where the strength of each team lies. How the battles will be won/lost in the trenches and where player and scheme mismatches might be found. These smaller slates of 11 games also seem to diminish the creativity of the field with chalk becoming heavier. This year I have taken risks fading some of the heavy chalk pieces which has worked some of the time but bit me in the behind last week. I still think it’s a good process to find alternate ways in which a team can win where you can leverage other players from that game to beat the chalk.

This write up may not include every player on my mind at this time, or as the weekend progresses. There are some other players I’ll monitor as the rest of the weekend goes by and may add to the player pool. Phillip Lindsay is one I’m looking at after he severely out-played MG3 last week. If he’s hurt, then I will be looking at MG3 in that game since he has a receiving component to his game and I like the Broncos pass offense this week. I’ll probably have Terry McLaurin and Darius Slayton in the player pool, though I do not have any strong data support for them. Both are favorite targets of their QBs and that’s about as far as needed to dive with them. McLaurin faces the Bradberry Blanket, which is a slight hindrance. Slayton faces inaccurate passes from Daniel Jones, also a slight hindrance. The total on the Raiders/Chargers game implies the Raiders will score points but I’m still trying to figure out if any ONE player is worth using. Jacobs carried the ball 31 times last week and got 100 yards but only scored 16 points. Waller is priced as the TE2 even though he has no explosive plays. These are the two I think are likeliest to score TDs but I don’t see much upside for them unless they do. I’ll probably play some Kyler Murray even though he’s facing a tough defense that has allowed the fewest points this year. Josh Allen and Russell Wilson were both able to have success against the Dolphins and they are the comps to Murray. There will be others I find to like the more I sit and think through games and watch injury reports and beat writer comments. For now, here we are. Best of luck this weekend, and thanks for reading!