Dynasty Football Buy Low/Sell High
Things are starting to level out across the NFL unless you’re Taysom Hill.
All kidding aside, we’re starting to finally see where players are at for the 2022 season. Some major conclusions so far have included that running backs over receivers in round one was a mistake, we should have drafted the elite quarterbacks earlier and remembering that if we give rookies time to develop, the payoff is huge given the average draft position. What do these conclusions mean for dynasty managers?
Weekly, I’m going to focus on some buy-low and sell-high players to help you reach your dynasty goals. With that being said, let’s get into it.
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Buy-Low Trade Targets
Najee Harris – RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s been a rough season for the Pittsburgh Steelers so far. They’ve carried over many issues from last season including poor offensive line play, and quarterback play and their defense is without its star in T.J. Watt. All of these points are contributing factors in Najee Harris’ current play.
Managers likely used a first-overall rookie pick for Harris and some may be struggling to see how they’re going to get long-term value given what they’re seeing from the Steelers. Those are the managers you need to target. Even though the team is bad, Harris is still seeing a 65.3 percent snap share and a 75 percent opportunity share. Take advantage of skittish managers and capitalize on the talent that is Harris.
Michael Pittman Jr. – WR, Indianapolis Colts
Speaking of teams that aren’t looking the greatest, Indianapolis ranks high among the group, especially on offense.
The Colts barely squeezed by a win in Denver in large part to their special teams and defense and in little part to their offense. The Jonathan Taylor-less Colts looked bad, and that helped your chances of buying Michael Pittman Jr. I’m buying Pittman Jr. everywhere I possibly can. A 25-year-old number-one wide receiver that’s posting a 95.3 percent snap share and has a 40.3 route run percentage is a player I want on my dynasty team.
The return of Jonathan Taylor in the coming weeks and the emergence of Alec Pierce will only help Pittman’s long-term trajectory. Buy low and buy now.
Jaylen Waddle – WR, Miami Dolphins
There was plenty of uncertainty around Jaylen Waddle coming into this season.
A lot of it had to do with the arrival of Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa’s ability to run Mike McDaniel’s offense. Five weeks into the season, and I think we’ve been able to settle both of those concerns. However, given the Tua injury and now most recently Waddle’s own injury, his dynasty managers might be uneasy with what the future holds. I’m finding those managers and trying to buy before Tua returns and Waddle regains full health.
Even with the addition of Hill, Waddle has a snap share of 76.6 percent and a route run percentage of 28.8, all slightly better than Hill.
Sell-High Trade Suggestions
Terry McLaurin – WR, Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders are right in the midst of the Carson Wentz experience.
That experience is similar to riding a roller-coaster, with plenty of ups and downs. I’m not sure I want to take part in that long-term, so I’m looking to sell Terry McLaurin. McLaurin is leading the team in receiving with 326 yards and is also the clubhouse leader in routes run percentage at 43.4 and snap share at 94.3 percent. In my trade pitch, I’m focusing on those numbers.
The 27-year-old hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t been what you hoped, and if the Commanders stick with Wentz moving forward, you can expect that to continue in the years to come.
Diontae Johnson – WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Even though I’m buying Najee Harris, I’m looking to sell Diontae Johnson. Johnson wouldn’t be in this portion of the article if he hadn’t signed a contract extension and was still expected to hit the open market after this season, but he did.
I have a ton of faith in Mike Tomlin to keep the Steelers competitive as they try and find their next franchise quarterback but I want no part of that experiment as a Johnson dynasty manager. You’re probably not going to have a lot of traction on the market for Johnson given the Steelers’ current woes but you may be able to package him and another player or draft pick to upgrade the position.
Johnson is still leading the team in receiving with 267 yards and in snap share and route run percentage at 89.9 percent and 36.4 percent, respectively.
Kyler Murray – QB, Arizona Cardinals
Now, this is a player you’re likely going to have traction on. Given the quarterback landscape this season, the Russell Wilson manager will be all over this. This sell-high player is purely team dependent. If I’m a contender, I’m not sure selling is the best idea. Unless you’re packaging Murray to get Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert from a rebuilding team, I’m holding.
If you’re not in that position, maximize Kyler’s value while you can. If the Cardinals don’t show meaningful improvement throughout the season, there’s a good chance Kliff Kingsbury won’t be back next season. If that’s the case, Murray will have to adjust to a new offense next season along with the uncertainty of the long-term prospects of the offensive line, running back and tight end positions.
If you do fall into this category, it’s time to capitalize.
Redraft leagues are a sprint, dynasty leagues are a marathon. It’s important to stay level-headed and avoid making rash decisions based on week-to-week results. It’s more important to pick a direction, make a plan and stick to it. Stay tuned to FantasyData for weekly buy/sell options to keep you on track.
