Thursday Night Football Preview
Line: Chicago Bears (-1) | O/U 37.5
Here we are in Week 6, and boy do we have an exciting matchup on our hands for Thursday Night Football. After an exhilarating matchup from last Thursday, it only feels appropriate for the NFL to follow that up with a duel between two powerhouses. That was sarcasm of course because this week’s matchup is between two of the worst teams in the NFL. On Thursday, NFL fans will have the fortune (or misfortune) of watching the Washington Commanders take on the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field.
Team Breakdowns
The Bears enter this matchup as one-point favorites over the Commanders. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offense and defense, so this game has a strong chance of becoming a sluggish bore. With a consensus O/U set at 37.5, it appears Vegas is predicting that these offenses continue to struggle.
The Commanders:
Injuries: LB David Mayo (Questionable), DE Chase Young (Out), FS Percy Butler (Questionable), LB Milo Eifler (Out), DT Phidarian Mathis (Out), RB Jonathan Williams (Questionable), TE Logan Thomas (Questionable), WR Jahan Dotson (Questionable), TE Curtis Hodges (Out), G Willie Beavers (Out), C Tyler Larsen (Out), T Sam Cosmi (Questionable)
After starting out their season with a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Commanders have fallen off. They’ve lost four straight games against the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, and Tennessee Titans. Now, the Commanders haven’t looked good, but that collection of teams is far from a bunch of slouches.
On defense, the Commanders have been dreadful in some areas and solid in others. They’ve been able to stop the run at a decent clip as they’re currently tied for 10th in the league with 4.2 yards per rush attempt allowed. But against the pass, they’re in the bottom 10 as they’ve allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt. As for their personnel, they have a solid group headlined by Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Daron Payne on the defensive line, as well as two solid safeties in Kamren Curl and Darrick Forest.
5️⃣ sacks
Sunday was our most sacks in a single game since the 2020 season pic.twitter.com/ioFZ51SOeb
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 11, 2022
On offense, the Commanders have been rough as their rushing and passing offenses both rank bottom 10 in yards per attempt. The team also ranks in the bottom 10 in team points per game. The group has just never been able to get into a grove, and that’s especially apparent when the offensive line is allowing the third most sacks and pressures with 20 and 59 respectfully.
Carson Wentz has been what was expected, and that’s a quarterback who insists on pushing the ball downfield that also makes a few boneheaded plays every game. The receivers have been impressive with Terry McLaurin, rookie Jahan Dotson, and the re-emergence of Curtis Samuel. Unfortunately, due to the ineffectiveness of the passing game, these receivers haven’t had their fair share of blow-up performances. The running backs are there as well with rookie Brian Robinson quickly taking the starting role from Antonio Gibson after returning to action in Week 5.
Overall, this Washington Commanders team could be better. But now they’re facing a team that has its fair share of struggles as well. Maybe this is a game for Washington to get back on track to where they were after their Week 1 victory.
The Bears:
Injuries: CB Reggie Robinson II (Out), DB Jaylon Johnson (Questionable), DB Dane Cruikshank (Questionable), LB Matthew Adams (Questionable), OL Doug Kramer (Out), OL Dakota Dozier (Out), OL Cody Whitehair (Out), OL Alex Leatherwood (Out)
The Bears have been an interesting bunch so far this season. They are a team, that on paper, looks like by far one of the worst teams in the NFL. But yet, they’ve managed to hold it together in most games this season while even winning a couple of close ones.
On defense, the Bears have been a decent bunch as they rank top-10 in yards per attempt against the pass and the run. They are also an underrated team at getting to the quarterback as they rank sixth in the NFL for quarterback pressures per dropback. With their personnel, they’re led by some veterans of this team in safety Eddie Jackson, linebacker Roquan Smith, and edge Robert Quinn.
On offense, this team has really bought into the philosophy that gave Chicago all of its championships back in the 20s. The Bears have really focused on establishing the run, so much so that it almost looks like they’re trying to run out the clock on their own games. For a team that rarely finds itself ahead in most of their matchups, it’s very strange that Chicago currently ranks in the top five in total carries. That being said, they do rank 11th in yards per rush attempt.
The most insane stat entering Week 5?#Rams WR Cooper Kupp has as many catches (49) as #Bears QB Justin Fields as completions on the season.
Crazy that something like that is happening in 2022 as we get closer to mid-season.
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 11, 2022
As for their passing, it’s almost astounding what they’ve done. The New York Giants are currently 31st in the NFL with 771 passing yards through five weeks. The only team behind them is the Bears, and they’re nearly 200 yards back at 583. What’s equally as alarming is how bad their protection has been. Chicago’s offensive line has allowed the fifth most sacks in the league (18) through five weeks while also allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL. For a team that passes so little, it’s concerning to see how often their quarterback, Justin Fields, is being pressured.
We’ll see if the Bears continue to run the ball like we’re back in the Great Depression, or if they’re willing to allow their quarterback to take more shots downfield. Whatever they’re planning, the protection will have to improve as Washington is coming off of a five-sack performance against the Titans.
Commanders vs. Bears Prediction
This matchup is an ugly one that will likely hit the under with how inconsistent these two offenses have been. That being said, it seems like an ugly matchup that the Chicago Bears are going to win to start out Week 6. The Bears have been an odd group, but they did show improvement on offense in their Week 5 loss to the Vikings. They also managed to shut down Minnesota for most of the second half in that performance, so there is a chance that they carry over the momentum into this matchup.
Chicago, as mentioned above, also has one of the more underrated pass rushes in the NFL. Against a team like the Commanders that is continuously letting their quarterback take a beating, there is the chance that Washington allows a high sack total once again.
The Pick: Bears ML
NFL DFS Showdown Flex Targets
WR – Jahan Dotson ($5,600)
Jahan Dotson missed last week with an injury, and he is questionable for this matchup. But if he is able to suit up this week, he could be in for a solid performance. Even as a rookie, he appears to be one of the Commanders’ most productive targets while also having high usage around the endzone as he’s caught four touchdowns through only four career appearances. Dotson has a strong role carved out for himself in a pass-happy offense, making him a value at $5,600.
K – Cairo Santos ($4,400)
One common aspect of these Thursday Night Football games is the impact that kickers have on the scoring. On short weeks, offensive players will usually be somewhat gassed, which leads to more opportunities for kickers to have solid performances. This was seen just last week with Chase McLaughlin and Brandon McManus as they finished as two of the highest scorers. In a matchup that will likely be just as sluggish as the last, kickers should come into play once again. However, out of the two, Santos is the play here as the Commanders have only kicked two field goals all year while the Bears have attempted 11.
D/ST – Chicago Bears ($4,000)
Playing a defense can usually be risky as the scoring isn’t all that predictable. But for this matchup against a turnover-prone quarterback who takes a lot of sacks, the Bears could have a field day. Carson Wentz is currently third in the league in interceptions and sacks taken. I could see that trend continuing against a Bears defense that has been above-average at creating turnovers and is top-10 in quarterback pressures per dropback. They’re currently a solid play at $4,000.
