5 (Early) Sleepers to Target at Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Johnson was the 10th wide receiver to be selected during the 2019 NFL Draft. But despite the collection of impressive numbers that were attained by fellow first-year receivers A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin, it was Johnson who led his rookie class in receptions (59). He also finished sixth among newcomers in both receiving yards (680) and scoring (WR39) while also leading the Steelers in targets (92), target share (18.9), receptions, and receiving touchdowns (5). 

The 5’10”, 185-pound Johnson led all receivers in target separation (2.39), collected seven receptions of 20+ yards, and manufactured these results with Mason Rudolph (8), and Devlin Hodges (6) under center for 14 games. Despite Johnson’s accomplishments during his underrated rookie year, his prospects of ascending into a lofty tier are being disregarded by a sizable percentage of owners. His ADP resides at 102, which places him at WR39.

That is also 60 slots after teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose enormous statistical freefall in 2019 has been dismissed too quickly by some owners and observers. There is no assurance that Ben Roethlisberger’s reemergence from a protracted elbow issue will automatically resurrect Smith-Schuster’s production to levels that approach his 2018 output (111 receptions and 1,426 yards). But even if Smith-Schuster can resuscitate his numbers to borderline WR1 status, that does not diminish Johnson’s prospects of delivering favorable results.

All Diontae Johnson does is make plays pic.twitter.com/fqCudIfds3

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 19, 2020

It has been proven that two wide receivers can thrive while performing in an aerial attack that is guided by Roethlisberger. Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown both finished among the top eight in scoring during 2018. They also combined for a whopping 344 targets, which placed the tandem among the top four in that category. Johnson also possesses the talent to perform effectively regardless of Smith-Schuster’s situation and should maintain the late-season momentum that he experienced in 2019. Johnson tied for 13th overall in targets from Weeks 14-17 (31/7.8 per game). He was also eighth in receptions (23/5.8 per game) and 15th in yardage (257/64.3 per game) during that span.

 Johnson also led the Steelers in targets, receptions, yards per target, and receiving yards during that sequence.

He is a capable route runner whose acceleration and athleticism also fuel his ability to function as a home-run threat. He will sustain an ongoing role that withstands any competition from James Washington and second-round draft selection Chase Claypool. This presents potential owners with an outstanding target in the ninth round of current drafts.  

N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots

Harry became just the second wide receiver to be chosen during the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft when New England deployed the 32nd overall pick. The 6’3”, 215-pound Harry had accrued 213 receptions, nearly 3,000 yards (2,899), and 22 touchdowns during his collegiate career. That includes the 73 receptions, 1,088 yards, and nine touchdowns that he assembled during his final season at Arizona State. His ability to secure congested throws blended with his size and physicality to place him at the pinnacle of rookie receiving prospects entering his first season. 

However, anyone who deployed an early first-round pick on Harry during their 2019 rookie draft does not require a reminder of the discouraging results that emerged during his forgettable first year. Harry was impacted by an ankle injury during training camp, then was eventually placed on injured reserve as the issue lingered. He resurfaced in Week 11 but collected just 12 of his 24 targets for 105 yards. However, he did accrue seven red zone targets during his abbreviated season. 

The Patriot’s offense contain multiple deficiencies throughout their unit, which creates a barrier when attempting to trust any of the team’s skill players on your roster. However, this also places Harry in a position to seize an integral role within what is clearly an undermanned attack. He will be functioning within a receiving unit that is comprised of 34-year-old Julian Edelman, 30-year-old Mohamed Sanu, Jakobi Meyers, Gunner Olszewski, Marqise Lee, and Damiere Byrd. 

Edelman finished fourth among all receivers in targets last season (153), while accumulating double-digit targets in 10 different matchups. He also finished fifth overall in target share (26.3), and was fourth in receptions (100). But Edelman’s ability to function fluidly without his familiar signal-caller remains uncertain. Sanu averaged an anemic 2.3 receptions and 17.2 yards per game from Weeks 11-17, while Meyers is the most likely candidate to commandeer a steady role among the remaining receiving options.  

Harry’s propensity to prevail in congested catch situations should result in consistent opportunities while also providing him with a frequent role in the red zone. There is currently a dearth of enthusiasm toward his prospects this season, as his current ADP of 188 barely registers inside the fantasy landscape. But this presents you with an opportunity to select a viable sleeper candidate who could still justify his first-round pedigree. 

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs 

To be clear, Hardman’s statistical ceiling in 2020 does not present the same level of appeal as several other receivers that are included in this breakdown. He is still learning how to perform effectively at the wide receiver position and will be absorbing his knowledge within an offense that contains a sizable collection of weapons. However, he still possesses elite speed and the game-breaking ability to justify selection before his present ADP (126).

Hardman was a five-star prospect when he arrived at Georgia where his explosiveness and versatility were displayed in multiple roles for the Bulldogs. He handled responsibilities as a returner and defender on kickoff coverage while he also amassed 60 receptions and 961 yards in 2017-2018. His development as a receiver was gradual with Kansas City in 2019. Hardman performed in a complementary role within an explosive attack that averaged 281 yards per game and accumulated 30 touchdowns through the air, while finishing fifth on the team in targets (41/2.6 per game), and seventh in receptions (26/1.6 per game).

However, Hardman was also second on the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns (6) and fourth in receiving yards (538/33.6 per game). He also paced the team in yards per reception (20.7) and yards per target average (13.1). Those averages also led the league in both categories among receivers with 40+ targets, while he also generated the most yards after catch per reception.

Most yards after catch per reception

1. Mecole Hardman – 11.5
2. A.J. Brown – 8.9
3. Deebo Samuel – 8.5 pic.twitter.com/ev3YYtman3

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 29, 2020

Hardman’s opportunity for expanded numbers would elevate even further if Sammy Watkins (90 targets/52 receptions/673 yards) and Demarcus Robinson (55 targets/32 receptions/449 yards) had signed elsewhere. But despite conjecture that both veterans might resurface in new environments, Watkins and Robinson were retained with one-year deals. That creates obstacles in any pathway toward a breakout season. However, that does not preclude Hardman from procuring a larger role.

Hardman’s exceptional speed supplies an outstanding foundation in his overall development as a receiver. His usage and production should steadily rise as part of his career progression. As this growth curve continues, Hardman should improve his route running and bolster his understanding of the intricacies in performing as a receiver at the professional level. He will still function as one component within a high-powered attack that contains numerous weapons. Andy Reid has the luxury of infusing Clyde Edwards-Helaire into a potent offensive concoction that already includes Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and the assortment of wide receivers. But you do not have to overthink Hardman’s sleeper candidacy or his inviting 11th round ADP (126). 

Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears

One of the recurring developments during my offseason research of the wide receiver position is the massive opportunity that awaits Miller in Chicago. He will enter his third season having yet to deliver upon the potential that compelled the Bears to invest a second-round selection in 2018. Miller had eclipsed 1,400 yards in both 2016 and 2017 while performing collegiately at Memphis. He also accrued 191 receptions and 32 touchdowns, led the nation with 18 touchdowns (2018), and also finished third with 1,462 yards.

But other members of his rookie class have progressed into significant roles for their teams and their owners. That includes top 20 finishes in PPR points per game scoring by D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley, along with Courtland Sutton’s rise to league leadership in percentage share of team’s air yards (43%). Miller has finished outside the top 50 in scoring during each of his first two seasons, while averaging 69.5 targets, 42.5 receptions, and 540 yards during that span. Lingering health issues have impeded his effectiveness, while deficiencies at quarterback have contributed to erratic target totals and inconsistent production.

However, a passageway toward greater proficiency has been expanded during the offseason. Taylor Gabriel was jettisoned in February, which will release the 48 targets that he collected in 2019 for redistribution. Miller should be the beneficiary of this opportunity as the Bears failed to fortify the wide receiver position during the offseason. Allen Robinson has confiscated undisputed status as Chicago’s WR1 after finishing at WR8 in PPR scoring during 2019. He also established career highs in targets (154/9.6 per game), and receptions (98/6.1 per game), while finishing sixth in air yards (1,680), and fourth in percentage share of team’s air yards (39.2). 

But Miller will not contend with a legitimate obstacle that prevents him from securing the team’s second-highest target share. He was targeted 9+ times in five different games from Weeks 7-15, including the 10.4 that he averaged from Weeks 11-15. This also raised his receptions per game and yards per averages during those five contests (6.6/86.2).

A transition from Mitchell Trubisky to Nick Foles appears inevitable. That does not guarantee a significant rise in Miller’s consistency and overall productivity during his third season. But the combination of his talent and increased opportunity has vaulted him to a spot among the most enticing sleeper prospects. He is also available until the 13th round in most drafts.

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers

As we advanced toward the free agency frenzy that occurred in mid-March, Green Bay was among the prime candidates to secure at least one wide receiver. It was logical to believe that the Packers would fortify a unit that experienced a significant drop off in talent beyond target monster Davante Adams. But when Green Bay only addressed the position through the signing of Devin Funchess, further additions to the team’s receiving arsenal appeared imminent during the impending NFL Draft. However, despite an extensive list of options that existed in a deep rookie class, the Packers eschewed their opportunity to supply Aaron Rodgers with any new weapons for the team’s aerial efforts. 

The inexplicable use of draft picks is a topic for another column. But the nominal change to last season’s depth chart does elevate the potential for Allen Lazard to emerge as the WR2 for the Packers, and a late-round sleeper option for owners. After spending most of 2018 on the practice squad, Lazard only performed on 21 snaps from Weeks 1-5 last season. But he was involved on 65% of the snaps during the Packers’ final 10 matchups, while operating in the slot on 52.6% of their offensive plays. He also finished second on the team in receptions (35) yardage (477) and touchdowns (3). 

Lazard’s output only placed him 67th in PPR scoring. But he did average 9.2 yards per target and 13.6 yards per reception, while also leading Green Bay’s wide receivers in catch percentage (67.3). The 6’5”, 235-pound Lazard is definitely not a burner, but he does provide Rodgers with a sizable target. He will also encounter only minimal competition for opportunities following Geronimo Allison’s migration to Detroit. Funchess and Valdes-Scantling are Lazard’s primary challengers for targets that are not commandeered by Adams, while Equanimeous St. Brown and Jake Kumerow remain unlikely candidates to become involved with the offense on a consistent basis.  

All this talk about WR this, WR that, all offseason. Peel back the blinds people!!

We got something special brewing with #13. An @AllenLazard thread :

pic.twitter.com/20jnL5Ujd9

— GBP Daily (@GBPdaily) May 27, 2020

Funchess accumulated his career-best numbers in 2017 with 111 targets, 63 receptions, and 840 yards. He also finished eighth among all receivers in touchdowns (8). However, his role decreased sizably during 2018 (79 targets/44 receptions/549 yards/4 touchdowns), while a collarbone issue relegated him to just 36 snaps last season. Valdes-Scantling experienced a universal decline in his numbers after a promising rookie season in 2018 (73/56 targets), (38/26 receptions), (581/452 yards). Neither receiver should reach Lazard’s usage or production, and his ADP (192) provides your motivation to target him as a low-risk sleeper option.