Coming off an exciting Dodgers and Padres series over the weekend, we bring you an April update to my fantasy baseball rankings. The base of these rankings started with my pre-draft rankings that involved a combination of auction dollar values and gut feels based on my research since last October.
A couple of quick notes about rankings – I believe rankings are fluid and I often put players into buckets or tiers. I won’t note any tiers in my fantasy rankings because, once again, there isn’t a clear line or cutoff for any player. A few times a week, I’ll move players up or down the ranks usually based on position, not overall. We know this, but the fantasy baseball player pool is massive, and I don’t operate with these set in stone whether it’s waiver pick-ups, trades, etc. Feel free to reach out with any questions/comments on Twitter.
In every update, I’ll note some notable risers and fallers. With that, I’ll include some reasons for optimism and concerns based on the data or what we’re seeing.
Notable Risers
Trevor Rogers, SP, Miami Marlins
In my offseason article on Five Starting Pitchers That Need More Love, I noted Trevor Rogers as one of them. He came in as an underrated starting pitcher to snag late in drafts. Rogers continues to impress in each start with a 1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 35.6% strikeout rate, and 11.5% walk rate in 22 innings. All three of his pitches, especially the slider and changeup have strong swinging-strike and whiff rates. Rogers has three pitches with a swinging-strike rate above 15% and a whiff rate above 35%. Meanwhile, Rogers can spot that four-seamer on the corners, especially to right-handed batters. It helps that his four-seamer increased in velocity about 1.5 mph from 2020.
Moving Trevor Rogers inside the top-35 for starting pitchers…too high or nah? Rogers didn’t elicit as many whiffs today but looks solid so far.
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) April 15, 2021
Trevor Rogers holds an above-average 34.2% called strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) overall up from 29.6% in 2020. This jump is partly due to his 6% increase in the swinging-strike rate at 19%. Sure, his ERA and .250 BABIP are likely unsustainable, but I’m loving what I’m seeing so far. Hence, why I have him inside my top-30 starting pitchers.
Jazz Chisholm, 2B/SS, Miami Marlins
In Spring Training, we heard rumors that Jazz Chisholm was battling for a starting spot in the Marlins lineup. Well, he’s done more than earn a spot, but rather solidify his spot towards the top of the lineup. Sure, his .382 BABIP boosts his .293 batting average, but the plate discipline and OBP skills give us reasons for optimism.
Chisholm has a chase rate better than the league average with contact rates near the league average evidenced by his 27.8% O-Swing%, 83.3% Z-Contact%, and 73% Contact%. When Chisholm makes contact, it’s loud contact with his 23.7% barrel rate, 111.7 maximum exit velocity, and 47.4% hard-hit rate. All good signs to start the season pointing to potential sustained success. Chisholm sits inside the top-15 at second base but could move up even higher.
Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B/SS, San Diego Padres
Several times throughout the offseason, I noted Jake Cronenworth as a guy to fade. I even mentioned it on the TGFBI Podapalooza live stream. Many people, including myself, seemed to fade Cronenworth given his initially high ADP after his 2020 breakout year. However, as we inched closer towards the end of draft season, Cronenworth’s ADP plummeted to a point where he became an intriguing value pick.
Admittedly, I’ll take an early loss here with Cronenworth because he’s playing almost every day given his positional flexibility. When Fernando Tatís Jr. suffered his shoulder injury, Cronenworth’s stock rose. Even before that injury, Cronenworth still earned regular playing time. He’s providing runs plus a decent batting average while accumulating playing time as he’s one of the leaders in plate appearances in all of major league baseball. Though Cronenworth doesn’t have massive upside, there’s value in his role and availability in one of the top lineups in baseball.
Notable Fallers
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Coming into the season, I envisioned Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as a solid third or fourth outfielder in 15-team leagues. Amongst qualified hitters on the FanGraphs leaderboards, Gurriel ranks dead last with a 15 wRC+ and a .188 wOBA. That’s not great. In 65 plate appearances, Gurriel has zero home runs and one steal with a .183 batting average. I expect his batting average to rebound given his low .239 BABIP compared to a career .323 BABIP.
When we look under the hood, Lourdes Gurriel isn’t pulling the ball as much with a slightly higher 45.7% ground ball rate. His 39.6% O-Swing increased slightly from his 35.8% O-Swing% in 2020 yet similar to his career 38.2%. He’s still rocking a healthy 89.4% Z-Contact% and 75% Contact%, but lacking the quality of contact. Gurriel has a 4.3% barrel rate so far compared to over 11% in 2019 and 2020. Even his hard-hit rate dropped to 37% when it hovered around or above 45% from 2018-2020. For now, Gurriel drops quite a bit near the David Peralta and Akil Baddoo (another major riser) range.
Corey Kluber, SP, New York Yankees
After dealing with some fluke injuries, Corey Kluber returned to the mound with the Yankees in 2021. So far, he hasn’t pitched great with a 5.40 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 19.2% strikeout rate, and 15.1% walk rate in 15 innings. If we throw out 2019 and 2020 when he barely pitched, both his strikeout minus walk rate stands out. Kluber typically boasted above-average control and command numbers, but he’s struggling to start the season. Throughout his career, Kluber started slowly with a career 4.01 ERA in March/April and 3.36 ERA in May. His ERA continued to remain around 3.36 or below throughout June through October in his career.
Kluber’s velocity on his sinker (90.4 mph) and four-seamer (89.8 mph) remain below his typical sinker and four-seamer velocity in 2017 and 2018 hovering around 92 mph. In terms of plate discipline, Kluber’s 27.4% O-Swing dropped from his career rate of 34.1%. Meanwhile, his 11.8% swinging-strike rate overall is slightly below his career 12.5% swinging-strike rate.
Although I dropped him outside of the top-100 starting pitchers, we have a few reasons for optimism with Kluber. A couple of reasons include the double-digit swinging-strike rate on his slider and cutter. On Baseball Savant, they list his breaking pitch as his curve. Both the curve/slider and cutter have solid whiff rates as well, but we’ll see if that helps him improve as the season goes on. I had concerns about Kluber heading into the season, and maybe the early struggles validate my concerns. Put Kluber on the bench, but don’t drop him quite yet.
