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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2020
The MLB season is right around the corner, so let’s look at fantasy baseball late-round sleepers. These late-round sleepers are six players to snag late in drafts or add on waivers if you already drafted. Most of these players have a FantasyPros ADP past pick 300. We’ll analyze three hitters and three pitchers that are underrated late-round sleepers in fantasy baseball leagues. These players may not be the most exciting, but they will provide value.
Mike Yastrzemski, OF, San Francisco Giants – 304 ADP
Mike Yastrzemski finished 2019 with 21 home runs, 64 runs, 55 RBI, and two stolen bases. He played in 107 games while slashing .272/.334/.518 with a 7.8% walk rate and a 26% strikeout rate. Yastrzemski’s 42.5% hard-hit rate ranked in the 73rd percentile, and 94.6 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD ranked 63rd that tied him with Domingo Santana and Edwin Encarnacion. Although he hits in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, his Statcast data backs up his surface stats.
2020 Outlook
Yastrzemski is a great draft value at pick 304 as the 84th outfielder. He projects to bat leadoff for the Giants, and plate appearances will be extra valuable in a shortened season. I like Yastrzemski as a fifth outfielder or bench bat. Even though the lineup context on the Giants may not be great, Yastrzemski has above-average power and a good source of runs. According to ATC on Fangraphs, he projects to finish with eight home runs, 27 runs, 23 RBI, and two stolen bases with a .246 batting average.
Travis Shaw, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays – 352 ADP
Travis Shaw falls into the post-hype sleeper category due to the extreme struggles last season. Last year he struggled so much that the Blue Jays sent him to Triple-A. In 2019, Shaw finished with seven home runs, 22 runs, 16 RBI, and slashed .157/.281/.270. It’s a bit concerning anytime we see the slugging percentage lower than the OBP for a power hitter. However, let’s look at his production from the previous two seasons.
In 2017 and 2018, he averaged 31 home runs, 78 runs, 93 RBI, and seven stolen bases. He’s usually shown solid on-base skills with .349 and .345 OBP in those two seasons. Shaw had an identical walk rate in 2018 and 2019 at 13.3%, but his strikeout rate jumped from 18.4% in 2018 to 33% in 2019. Outside of the strikeout rate, why did he struggle?
Swing Change and Statcast Data
In Jeff Zimmerman’s Mining the News article from 1/17/2020, he talked about how Travis Shaw changed his swing before last season. And that didn’t end up working out as he hoped. Shaw stated that he struggled to adjust and revert to what was working in 2017 and 2018.
When looking at his Statcast data, there were a couple of notable changes. His launch angle went up from 16.6 degrees in 2018 to 24.4 degrees in 2019. Not surprisingly, his fly ball rate rose about 5% as well. The increase in launch angle seems to be related to his swing change gone wrong. Shaw’s batted ball profile fits a prototypical power hitter that frequently pulls the ball into the air.
2020 Outlook
Shaw attempted to make a tangible swing change that ended up backfiring in 2019, and he openly admitted that. He’s now on the Toronto Blue Jays, and there are several hitter-friendly parks in the AL East. Recent reports indicate the Blue Jay will not play in their home stadium. It sounds like other home ballpark options could be their Triple-A affiliate in Buffalo, NY, or their facility in Florida. Currently, Shaw projects to platoon against righties and bat fifth. If you need home runs, then Shaw is worth a flier past pick 350.
Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle Mariners – 376.4 ADP
The 2016 Golden Spikes award winner, Kyle Lewis, debuted in the majors last year with a short sample of 75 plate appearances. Lewis ended with six home runs, ten runs, and 13 RBI. He slashed .268/.293/.592 with a 4% walk rate and a 38.7% strikeout rate. Although the strikeout rate looks scary in a small sample, he showed 10-11% walk rates in the minors for the last two years.
2020 Outlook
Lewis is a cheap source of power coming at pick 376, and expect his stock to rise in recent drafts after hitting two homers in last Friday’s scrimmage. When sorting by FB/LD, Lewis ranked 8th with 98.3 mph average exit velocity right in front of Franmil Reyes. His ground ball rate spiked up to 51.2% when he typically hovered around a 40% ground ball rate. Lewis projects to bat 6th and provide a cheap source of power.
Pablo Lopez, SP, Miami Marlins – 330 ADP
Pablo Lopez finished 2019 with 111.1 innings, 5.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts. Lopez had a 20.3% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate with a 4.28 FIP. Although he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, he limits walks. It’s also positive to see his FIP lower than his ERA.
2020 Outlook
Another reason I like Lopez as a late-round sleeper is his changeup because it’s a money pitch. If you’re not familiar with the term money pitch, it’s a term coined by Pitcher List, which means a pitch with a 40% O-Swing, 40% Zone%, and 15% Swinging Strike rate. Lopez’s changeup fits these parameters – 45.8% O-Swing, 43% Zone%, and 17.2% swinging-strike rate. His changeup also resulted in a 29.7% whiff rate with a .226 batting average against and a .288 xWOBA. Lopez projects to be the fourth starter for the Marlins, and I like him as a backend starter on my roster.
Lots of quality changeups from Pablo López through his first 2 seasons in the majors. Look for him to use it even more in 2020! pic.twitter.com/fdBQ5iXL1j
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) June 25, 2020
Chris Bassitt, SP, Oakland Athletics – 351.5 ADP
Another pitcher that’s an underrated late-round sleeper is Chris Bassitt. He’s currently projected to be the fourth starter for the Athletics with Jesus Luzardo behind schedule due to testing positive for COVID-19. Last year Bassitt finished a solid season with 144 innings, 3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 141 strikeouts. He limits walks with a 7.7% walk rate paired with a 23% strikeout rate.
Bassitt performed much better in the second half of 2019 with a 3.26 ERA compared to a 4.29 ERA in the first half. He increased his sinker usage while dropping his cutter usage from July into the second half. Bassitt threw his sinker the most and it resulted in .235 batting average against, a .337 xWOBA, and a 15% whiff rate. He also throws a 70 mph curveball, which is a 23 mph difference from his fastball. His curve resulted in a .170 batting average against, .173 xWOBA, a 13.7% swinging-strike rate, and 34.1% whiff rate.
Chris Bassitt quick hit:
2nd half: 3.26 ERA and 18.3 K-BB%
Cut down his cutter usage 🙌
Upped his sinker which produced a .299 xwOBAcon – 3.6 Barrel% – 55.9 GB%
4-seam produced a 10.0 SwStr% with a viable .381 xwOBAcon.
Implemented a changeup with potential.@Athletics pic.twitter.com/0OMqu7nsua
— Michael Simione (@SPStreamer) June 30, 2020
2020 Outlook
Bassitt will start the season in the rotation, and he could make spot starts throughout the season. I love that he limited walks and made positive adjustments during the season. Lopez and Bassitt are streaming pitchers with decent skills that you can find late in drafts.
Randy Dobnak, SP/RP, Minnesota Twins – ADP 367.7
In both dynasty and redraft leagues, I love rostering Randy Dobnak. First off, his story is inspiring. He was undrafted out of a Division II school, Alderson Broaddus University, and then ended up pitching for an independent league team called the Utica Unicorns. Last year he tossed 28.1 innings with a 1.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 23 strikeouts with a 19.5% strikeout rate and a 4.2% walk rate. Notice a trend with Lopez, Bassitt, and Dobnak? They all control the strike zone.
Dobnak uses a four-pitch mix with his slider being his best pitch that resulted in a 26.1% swinging-strike rate. Prior to the delayed season, Dobnak looked to have the fifth starter spot. He currently projects to come out of the bullpen but could make spot starts during the season especially with Rich Hill’s injury history. Dobnak should provide solid ratios and vulture some wins in a piggyback role.
