Rookies to Draft in Fantasy Baseball 2024
One of the most important things to watch during spring training is the upcoming class of prospects. Many of them are fighting for opening day roster spots, and a hot spring could send their ADP skyrocketing during draft season. Drafters last season probably expected a little more out of Jordan Walker and Anthony Volpe, but others such as Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, Kodai Senga, and Tristan Casas showed that drafting rookies can pay off in a big way.
The 2024 rookie class feels even deeper than last year, with many of them looking like solid bets to have starting jobs on opening day. Here are the ten rookies who should be taken in most fantasy drafts.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Fastball & Curveball, Individual Pitches + Overlay (home plate view) https://t.co/LwOzdCB713 pic.twitter.com/lhFOCYHaKK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 17, 2024
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, LAD (NFBC ADP: 46.89)
- 2023 NPB Stats: 17-6 / 171.1 IP / 1.16 ERA / 0.86 WHIP / 176 K / 28 BB
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is technically a rookie, but of course, he is a massive step ahead of everyone else on this list. He is coming off winning three straight NBP Eiji Sawamura awards (Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young), and that track record of dominance led to a historic bidding war. The Dodgers ultimately signed him for $325 million over 12 years, the largest contract ever for a pitcher. Obviously, he will have to adjust to tougher competition, but his pitch arsenal looks suited to dominate the competition in any league he pitches in. His mid to high 90s fastball and his big, looping curveball are expected to be elite MLB offerings, and his splitter has the potential to be the best in the league. He also mixes in a cutter around eight percent of the time. There is the risk of Yamamoto adjusting slowly to the new environment, and the Dodger’s 6-man rotation will slightly limit the number of innings he throws, but he has the upside to be the best pitcher in the league. Expect to draft him in the SP8-SP12 range.
Evan Carter, OF, TEX (NFBC ADP: 123.51)
- 2023 MLB Stats: 23 G / 15 R / 5 HR / 12 RBI / 3 SB / .306 AVG / .413 OBP / .645 SLG
- 2023 MiLB Stats: 108 G / 79 R / 13 HR / 67 RBI / 26 SB / .288 AVG / .413 OBP / .450 SLG
Evan Carter is one of the many on this list who got an extensive look in the major leagues towards the end of last season. Carter got even more experience than most, with the Rangers playing him throughout their World Series run, even batting him 3rd in the lineup at times. The Rangers clearly trust him, and that type of playing time assurance is huge for a prospect to pay off their value on draft day. He has 20HR/20SB upside with elite on-base skills, as can be seen with his .413 OBP last season. The biggest flaw in Carter’s game is his inability to hit lefties, slashing .242/.349/.253 against them in the minors and majors last year. He was often benched against them even in the minors, so there is a belief that he will improve as he gets more reps against them. In points leagues or category leagues that reward OBP, Carter is a solid bet as a top-25 outfielder with the upside for more. In standard 5×5 roto, he falls in the OF25-OF30 range.
Jackson Chourio, OF, MIL (NFBC ADP: 137.97)
- 2023 MiLB Stats: 128 G / 88 R / 22 HR / 91 RBI / 44 SB / .283 AVG / .338 OBP / .467 SLG
Jackson Chourio looks like a future fantasy superstar, hitting 22 home runs and stealing 44 bases in AA and AAA at only 19 years old. That type of power and speed at such a young age draws comparisons to Ronald Acuna Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Corbin Carroll, who just happen to be the first four overall picks on average according to NFBC ADP. The Brewers clearly see him as a future star, too, signing him to an 8-year $82 million contract before he played a single MLB game. The fact that he is already under contract makes him extremely likely to land on the opening-day roster. He is currently being drafted as the 32nd outfielder off the board in NFBC leagues, but with a good spring and official confirmation that he is making the roster, his ADP should continue to climb into the top 25 outfielders. Chourio is a great mid-round pick with true league-winning upside.
Wyatt Langford vs Josh Hader in game 7 alcs pic.twitter.com/ScXEX3Tknn
— WORLD SERIES CHAMPS (@Bryce_WX) February 8, 2024
Wyatt Langford, OF, TEX (NFBC ADP: 154.34)
- 2023 MiLB Stats: 44 G / 36 R / 10 HR / 30 RBI / 12 SB / .360 AVG / .480 OBP / .677 SLG
Wyatt Langford was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft and thus has only 44 career professional games under his belt. What he did in those 44 games is nothing short of spectacular, rising from rookie ball to AAA while dominating every stop. Even at the more advanced levels, he slashed .405/.519/.762 in 12 games at AA, and in a brief 5-game stint at AAA to end the season he went 7–19 with 3 doubles, 3 steals, and 6 walks. Langford possesses the power and speed to put up a 20/20 season in his rookie year, and his long-term power potential could see him reach 35+ home runs. He seems the most ready for major league pitching of any prospect on this list, and the only reason his ADP is lower than Carter and Chourio is playing time concerns. The Rangers currently have Adolis Garcia, Evan Carter, Leody Taveras, and Travis Jankowski in the outfield, and there are rumors that they don’t want Langford to make the opening-day roster as their starting DH. They may use his defensive drawbacks as an excuse to start him in the minors, but it’s very possible he will put up an impressive enough performance in spring training to win a job. If you are drafting now (late February), Langford is worth a speculative pick after the first 10 rounds, somewhere between OF30 and OF40 depending on how much risk you want to take. If he has a massive spring and looks primed to win a starting job, his ADP will skyrocket, and he could be drafted as a top 20 OF within the first 100 picks.
Noelvi Marte, 3B, CIN (NFBC ADP: 164.09)
- 2023 MLB Stats: 35 G / 15 R / 3 HR / 15 RBI / 6 SB / .316 AVG / .366 OBP / .456 SLG
- 2023 MiLB Stats: 92 G / 69 R / 11 HR / 45 RBI / 18 SB / .279 AVG / .358 OBP / .454 SLG
The Reds had so many prospect debuts in 2023 that it was hard to keep track, and many people may have missed what Marte was able to do when he finally got called up. On top of showing elite bat-to-ball skills that led to his .316 batting average, he posted a 91.3 mph average exit velocity, a 46.1% hard-hit rate, and stole 6 bases in 35 games thanks to his 91st percentile sprint speed. His raw power and speed make him a potential 20HR/20SB threat with an upside for more in both categories. He is very affordable on draft day in round 13+ with tons of potential to outperform his draft spot.
Jackson Holliday, SS, BAL (NFBC ADP: 196.37)
- 2023 MiLB Stats: 125 G / 113 R / 12 HR / 75 RBI / 24 SB / .323 AVG / .442 OBP / .499 SLG
The son of former major-leaguer Matt Holliday and the former number one overall pick in the 2022 draft, Jackson Holliday flew through the Oriole’s minor league system in his first full season out of high school. He started in Single-A and ended in Triple-A, and his 17.4% walk rate and 20.3% strikeout rate show an impressive approach for a 19-year-old fresh out of high school. The rest of his numbers weren’t exactly eye-popping, with only 12 home runs and 24 steals, but the raw potential is there. As he grows some muscle the power should come, and the Orioles don’t need to rush him to the majors. Still, they left the door open for him to win a starting job this spring, so he is a player to watch closely. He is worth a speculative late-round pick as a high-upside bench stash. If he shows up to spring training with more muscle and puts on an impressive power display, his ADP should start to rise, but for now, he is looking more like a mid-season call-up.
Shōta Imanaga, SP, CHC (NFBC ADP: 204.72)
- 2023 NPB Stats: 7-5 / 159.0 IP / 2.66 ERA / 1.02 WHIP / 188 K / 24 BB
Imanaga is another NPB standout, although nowhere near the level of Yamamoto. He’s known for his nasty stuff, with his fastball, slider, and splitter all grading out as above average in Stuff+. His fastball in particular is especially tricky due to his low release point that makes the pitch almost look like it’s rising to the hitter, similar to Joe Ryan’s fastball. Imanaga struck out a ton of batters and gave up a lot of home runs, which is interesting since strikeouts and home runs are typically limited in Japan. He will now be facing even better hitters, and I can’t see him fairing well on days when the wind is blowing balls out of Wrigley. His ratios could end up looking pretty scary, but at the very least he will be a solid source of strikeouts. He is currently being drafted around SP60, and he’s a fine starter to round out your rotation in the later rounds.
And now Rays top prospect Junior Caminero takes some cuts pic.twitter.com/bQWbCr1VGX
— Chris Adams-Wall (@ChrisAdamsWall) February 19, 2024
Junior Caminero, 3B, TBR (NFBC ADP 234.47)
- 2023 MiLB Stats: 117 G / 85 R / 31 HR / 94 RBI / 5 SB / .324 AVG / .384 OBP / .591 SLG
Caminero is currently ranked as the 4th best prospect according to MLB.com. He absolutely dominated the minors last year in Single-A and Double-A, which led to him skipping Triple-A altogether for a brief 7-game MLB stint late last season. He has as much upside as any player on this list, but there’s currently just nowhere for him to play. The Rays are notorious for leaving their prospects in the minors for long periods and putting them in platoons when they finally get called up. It looked like there might be an open spot in the lineup due to the Wander Franco situation, but the Rays quickly traded for Jose Caballero and signed Amed Rosario. Caminero looks to be stuck in the minors for the time being, but it is still worth drafting him and stashing him until he’s promoted.
Jung-Hoo Lee, OF, SFG (NFBC ADP: 250.62)
- 2023 KBO Stats: 86 G / 50 R / 6 HR / 45 RBI / 6 SB / .318 AVG / .406 OBP / .455 SLG
Lee is a batting average specialist coming over from the KBO, where he has a lifetime .340 batting average. Unfortunately, he will offer very little power production for fantasy, homering only 6 teams last season. He will be facing the toughest competition of his career, and it would be safe to assume that little power production would decrease even more in the MLB. He figures to be a great source of batting average and runs, and he will steal 10–15 bases. In 5-outfielder category leagues, you could certainly do worse than him to fill your fourth or fifth outfield spot.
Kyle Harrison, SP, SFG (NFBC ADP: 273.54)
- 2023 MLB Stats: 1-1 / 34.2 IP / 4.15 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / 35 K / 11 BB
Kyle Harrison got a pretty extended look in the majors last season, and he was impressive considering he was only 22 years old. He has consistently been an elite bat-misser in the minors, but he also struggled with walking batters. He seemed to fix his control issues somewhat once being called up, but it is something to monitor going into 2024. He probably won’t pitch consistently deep into games, but he pitches in a favorable ballpark and will strike guys out. For someone still so young he has the upside to take the next step forward, and he is a good choice for one of your final rotation spots after the first 60 starters are off of the board.
