Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets For Week 11
There is still plenty of value to be found on the trade market as we head into Week 11. Even though the third month of the season is well underway, there are still many players who are performing very differently from their expected stats. I expect a shift in value soon for these five players, who you should be looking to either trade for or trade away to improve your fantasy rosters.
Buy-Low Candidates
Taj Bradley, SP, Rays
Taj Bradley is the owner of a very unsightly 5.17 ERA through his first six starts of 2024. He’s been hit extremely hard, allowing a 91.8 mph average exit velocity (4th percentile) and a 17.3% barrel rate (1st percentile). Unsurprisingly, this has led to him allowing 8 home runs in 31.1 innings on the season, which comes out to a ridiculously high 2.30 HR/9 and a 20.5% HR/FB rate. That would rank as the worst among qualified pitchers in both categories, however, I don’t expect him to be that bad going forward. He will likely continue to give up more hard contact and home runs than the average pitcher, but his stuff is too good to be as bad as his stats currently present him as. He has a 29.8% strikeout rate (87th percentile) this year and has 168 strikeouts in 136 innings in his career. His strikeout upside gives him the potential to be a true standout in fantasy if he can fix the hard contact, and he’s still only 23 years old. His 2024 stats are largely skewed by one bad start against the Orioles where he allowed 4 home runs and 9 earned runs, and in his most recent outing, he bounced back by allowing just 1 run over 5 innings with 7 strikeouts against that same Baltimore offense. His xFIP is just 3.35, and you should be able to get him for very cheap right now.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets
Brandon Nimmo is slashing .221/.346/.381 with 7 home runs on the season, but his underlying metrics suggest he could be doing much better. His xBA is .278 and his xSLG is .484, and he is excelling in pretty much every regard. His 92.3 mph average exit velocity, 49.7% hard-hit rate, and 39.5% sweet spot rate all place him close to the top 10 percent of the league. His plate discipline is also still elite, as can be seen by his 12.9% walk rate. It seems like he has gotten very unlucky so far in the power department, and I expect Nimmo to have a huge second half of the season. I still view him as a clear top-25 outfield option for the rest of the season, even though his current production doesn’t suggest it.
Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
At first glance, it might look like Colton Cowser is getting outmatched by major-league pitching. He hasn’t done much since the first few weeks of the season, and his slash line is now down to .233/.327/.428, with almost all of his production coming before April 23rd. However, he has continued to hit the ball hard, holding a 17.1% barrel rate (97th percentile) and 51.3% hard-hit rate (92nd percentile) on the season. His .506 xSLG also ranks in the top 10 percent. His 29.3% strikeout is his biggest flaw, and he will have to find a way to lower that to get the chance to ever become an elite fantasy option. However, even if he continues to strike out a lot this season, his quality of contact should still be able to carry him to better stats than he has put up over the past month and a half. The most important thing is that he’s still getting consistent playing time, meaning the Orioles believe in him to turn it around, too. There’s a good chance he is on the waiver wire in shallow leagues and available for cheap in deeper leagues, so go get him now before he gets hot again.
Sell-High Candidates
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies
Ezequiel Tovar has been enjoying a breakout season, slashing .294/.325/.487 with 35 runs, 10 home runs, 28 runs batted in, and 4 stolen bases. The bad news is that it looks completely unsustainable. His xBA is a lackluster .240 to go along with an xSLG of only .404. Of course, it might make sense for someone who plays half of their games at Coors Field to overperform their expected stats, but nothing else about his profile looks good, either. His 29% strikeout rate is in the bottom 10 percent of the league, and his 3.9% walk rate is in the bottom 5 percent. And unlike Colton Cowser, his quality of contact metrics don’t make up for the high strikeout rate. His 51% hard-hit rate and 88.6% average exit velocity are nothing to get excited about. Regression looks imminent, and Tovar will go from a must-start player to a barely rosterable one very quickly. I rank him outside of the top 20 shortstops, and he will most likely revert back to being a streaming option for whenever the Rockies are at home. Trade him now while he is still worth something.
Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals
Kyle Finnegan has been one of baseball’s most dominant closers, recording 18 saves with a 1.73 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. However, his 4.52 xERA paints him as one of the luckiest pitchers in the entire league. His 10.3% walk rate is too high for a supposedly elite closer, and it’s clear that his 92% LOB% is the driving factor of his success so far. That number is unsustainable and is bound to go down, and the rest of his stats will get worse along with it. He’s also very fortunate to have 18 saves on the 30-win Washington Nationals, and it’s also a possibility that Finnegan gets traded at the deadline and is no longer a closer. I view him in the range of the 20th-best closer for the rest of the season, but there’s a good chance you’d be able to trade him at top-10 reliever value. Take advantage of that opportunity now before it’s too late.
