Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets For Week 3
Week 3 is just getting underway, and as always it’s a great time to improve your team through trades. Whether your team has stumbled out of the gate or gotten off to a hot start, it’s smart to take advantage of early-season overreactions. Last week’s article featured names such as Francisco Lindor and Evan Carter as buy-lows and Garret Crochet and Brady Singer as sell-highs. Those guys still represent good values, but here are five new names to look at on the trade market for week 3.
Buy-Low Candidates
Nick Castellanos, OF, Phillies
Nick Castellanos has been nothing short of terrible in 2024, slashing .190/.266/.190. As can be seen by the fact that his batting average and slugging percentage are identical, he doesn’t even have an extra-base hit yet. That is slightly misleading, as he did have a walk-off single on Saturday that would have been a double if he had needed to run to second, but regardless, he has been one of the league’s worst hitters through the first two weeks of the season. None of his underlying metrics look good either, but it’s also unlikely that he has completely lost the ability to hit. He is a very streaky player, and he unfortunately started the season ice cold. Last season, Castellanos hit .273 with 79 runs, 29 home runs, and 106 runs batted in. He still will get plenty of RBI opportunities in that Phillies offense, and his hot streaks will balance out his cold streaks by season’s end. He has started so poorly that some owners may even be considering dropping him, but I still trust him as a top-35 outfielder for the rest of the season. I would rather have him than red-hot Lourdes Gurriel, who you can read more about later in this article when I get to the sell-high candidates.
Luis Castillo, SP, Mariners
Luis Castillo has gotten off to a rough start in 2024, posting a 5.82 ERA through his first four starts. He gave up four runs in each of his first three starts, until throwing a quality start of six innings and three earned runs on Sunday against the Cubs. He seems to have been one of the unluckier pitchers through his first three starts, having a .268 xBA, .299 xwOBA, and 3.54 xERA. Those still aren’t the stats you would expect from a pitcher of his caliber, but they are significantly better than his actual stats of a .352 BA, .411 wOBA, and 6.89 ERA. Another promising sign is that he is still striking out as many batters as ever, punching out 27 through 21.2 innings while only walking 4. Castillo has had slow starts to seasons in his past and has historically been a much better pitcher in the summer months. His career ERA in March/April is 4.17, and in May, it is 4.45, compared to 3.43 and 2.81 in June and July. He will still be very expensive in trades, but if you can get him at even a slight discount it will be worth it. He is the third-best pitcher in fantasy for me, ranking only behind Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler.
Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners
Julio Rodriguez has greatly underperformed thus far for a consensus top-3 overall pick. He is batting just .186 with 3 runs, 5 runs batted in, 2 stolen bases, and a lone double as his only extra-base hit. Although still not great, he has a better xBA of .251 and a .361 xSLG compared to his actual .203 SLG. He is similar to Castellanos in the fact that he just hasn’t been able to barrel many balls up this season. There’s no reason to think he will take any step back this season and unfortunately started the year on a massive cold streak. We’ve seen this before with Rodriguez in each of the past two seasons. In 2022 he batted only .205 in April before exploding in May to truly begin his breakout season. He had a pretty disappointing entire first half of 2023 posting a .238/.302/.407 slash line with 13 home runs through the first three months of the season, before slashing .312/.364/.561 with 19 home runs after July 1st. There is no reason to worry about a player of his caliber, but it’s worth sending out a trade offer to see if your leaguemate who owns him is getting nervous. Just like Castillo, it still won’t be cheap, but this is the lowest his value, which will probably be all season. You could start an offer with second-round guys such as Jose Ramirez, Bryce Harper, Austin Riley, or Ozzie Albies and see if the Rodriguez owner bites.
Sell-High Candidates
Lourdes Gurriel, OF, Diamondbacks
Lourdes Gurriel is on fire to start the season, slashing .297/.348/.531 with 12 runs, 4 home runs, 18 runs batted in, and 2 stolen bases. His expected stats are in line with his actual stats for the most part, so he isn’t getting lucky either. However, I have a hard time believing this is anything more than a hot streak. He did most of his damage in the first series of the season against poor Rockies’ pitching, homering in each of the first three games of the season and collecting 10 RBI in the four-game series. He did homer again recently on Saturday, but his season-long stats are still being heavily skewed by that one amazing series to start the year. His K% and BB% have both slightly improved from last season but not enough to view it as a real breakthrough, and he just seems like the same hitter who just happened to see the ball very well for the first week. He will still be a solid fantasy contributor, especially in leagues that require five outfielders, but not anywhere close to the level he is currently on. I would still prefer other outfielders such as Castellanos, Lane Thomas, Ian Happ, and currently injured Josh Lowe.
Brice Turang, 2B/SS, Brewers
Brice Turang has led the league in steals so far with seven while slashing .362/.392/.511 with one home run, eight runs, and seven runs batted in. He was a great waiver-wire find and will surely help your team in steals, but I think expectations should be lowered for the rest of his game. His xBA and xSLG are .266 and .375, respectively, making him one of the biggest overperformers in the league. He has a poor 31.4% hard-hit rate, 2.9% barrel rate, and 89.4 mph average exit velocity. These numbers are improvements over his 2023 metrics that led to him slashing .218/.285/.300 with six home runs in 137 games, but not enough to make him a .300 hitter overnight. I think a .260 batting average is much more reasonable to expect, and once he starts to get on-base less then his steals pace will naturally decrease as well. I would rather have other middle infield options such as Jonathan India, Thairo Estrada, and Jackson Merrill. You may even be able to get a better player than those in a trade if someone in your league is buying the hype on Turang, so it’s worth shopping him around. If you can’t find an owner to sell high to, Turang can still be a reliable stolen base contributor for you for the rest of the season.
